Hopefully you do not get stuck on the back elbow, it is not a friendly
place this season. It usually isn’t regardless, but this season
especially. There are seven names on my round #1 list this season, if
you do get stuck on the back end and miss them we will explore plan B.
#1 Miguel Cabrera
#2 Albert Pujols
#3 Joey Votto
#4 Adrian Gonzalez
#5 Jose Bautista
#6 Prince Fielder
#7 Evan Longoria
Notice a theme? All corner infielders, all the time. This year more
than any other you must corner the market on (pun intended) corner
infielders before your league mates. 3B depth has been thinning out
over the last few years (although it’s starting to see a resurgence),
but now 1B is too. A quick skim of the players available between the
above five 1B’s and the Problem Child (my term for Mark Reynolds) are
not pretty. A guy who could fall off the cliff any year (Paul
Konerko), an over rated kid (Eric Hosmer), a late bloomer with warts
(Michael Morse), a health hazard (Ike Davis), a last ditch effort
(Adam Lind), and a couple of other unknowns in Freddie Freeman and
Paul Goldschmidt. Those look like some fine CI’s, but at 1B you’re at
a huge disadvantage to those who went 1B in round 1, especially when
you compare your OF replacements to guys like Kemp and your shortstop
replacement to Tulowitzki.
Lesson of the story, get your power early. As we move on from the
steroid era power numbers are dwindling and speed is becoming more
prevalent. Get your power now because you don’t want to be chasing it
later in the form of Carlos Pena, the Problem Child, and (gulp) Adam
Dun. You can chase other categories, but now power, and especially at
the corner infield spots.
Now, what if you’re one of those poor souls that miss on the top 7?
Evan Longoria has fallen out of round #1 (by the way, big bounce back
on the horizon) in some leagues, but not all so you must develop a
plan B if you’re on the back end of the round. Elbow drafting
requires a combination of projection, anticipation, and leaving
yourself as many options as possible. Looking at what is likely to be
available at your next set of picks your best bet at the back elbow is
to double up on outfielders. You do not want too many outfielders too
early because there is a lot of value at outfielder later in the
draft, but there does not appear to be any good values at outfielder
at the next elbow (unless Giancarlo ‘Mike’ Stanton falls) so you will
probably head into round 5 with only two outfielders on your roster.
You do not want more than two outfielders at this point and you will
see why later. Do not expect either Kemp or Ryan Braun to fall (if
they somehow do by all means pick one) so you’re probably looking at
two of Justin Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos
Gonzalez – in that order. All of them should be five category
producers, but won’t dominate in any one category and should leave you
with plenty of options going into the next elbow. Again, flexibility
is key.
Strategy for auction players is much simpler. See that list of 7 guys
I listed above? Get one of them. Based on how others have them
valued, probably Votto or Longoria. Simply go to three or four
auction websites, get the average $ amounts for those two, add $5,
budget, acquire, and move on. If you get one of them for less than
budget, great! You’re welcome.
Next time we’ll dive into rounds 2 through 4…