Friday - Apr 26, 2019

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On Second Thought – Week 10

You can’t trust projections.  It’s one of fantasy owners’ biggest complaints about their fantasy league host sites.  Monday night my PPR league website had me projected to lose by 5 because of a low projection on Alshon Jeffery.  I won.

Are bad projections your biggest concern as an owner?  Probably not, but what if it didn’t have to be that way.  What if you could get actual realistic projections?  Wouldn’t that be nice?

Here at FantasySharks.com we have a great tool called the Line-Up Coach.  You can input your players, league scoring system and lineup requirements and it will tell you every week which players you should start, why you should start them and give you a projection for every player.

I am not paid to tell you this.  I am not asked to tell you this.  Heck, FantasySharks.com has not even suggested I do so to keep my job, (though I want it noted, Tony Holm, how much of a team player I’m being here).  I am however, an owner of several fantasy teams, just like you are, and I use this tool every week rather than the different projections given to me by the 4 different fantasy web host sites I use.  Why, because it is way more accurate.

What makes me say that is it more accurate?  Last year I tested it.  I mentioned this in one of my articles and took a sample from the projections for that week and it showed ours was more accurate.  This year just to prove a point, I did the same for this week. I am in a PPR league that allows 6 points per passing touchdown and starts one flex position.

My original projections for this week were 115.51 points.  I actually scored 161.02, and before you ask, no, I did not have any of the overachieving players for their position this week such as Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Delanie Walker or Antonio Brown, I had players who did well, but nothing extremely out of the ordinary. If you look at the ratio of projected points to actual points for my position players, you will notice that there is a 45.51 total points difference for an average of 6.5 points difference per position player.  That is no Bueno.

Using the FantasySharks.com Lineup Coach in that same league, I showed an original projection of 146.67 points for a difference of 14.35 points for the same players for an average of 2.05 points difference per player this week.  That is a huge difference.

This information is great, but it will not help you with the massive injuries we have seen over the last few weeks.  It also won’t help you with drafting or picking up players off of waivers, but it will help you with taking those great players you do have on your roster and making sure the proper ones are in your lineups to give you the best chance possible to win with the team you do have.

So if you want to give yourself the best chance possible and are fed up with inaccurate projections from your fantasy host, I recommend our Lineup Coach here on FantasySharks.com.  Oh, and by the way, I hear the articles aren’t too bad here either.

With that in mind let’s discuss what we saw in the Week 9 games and how that can/will affect you and your team in Week 10 and we’ll start with the quarterbacks.

Matt Cassel had a great week.  He threw for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns with only 1 interception while taking his Cowboys to OT against the Eagles.  He is also currently available in 97% of leagues.  With Dez Bryant back and Cole Beasley looking to be competently filling the slot role, I’d like to tell you to go out and grab him if you are in need of QB help but on second thought, Cassel is not your answer.

He does have a few cupcakes on the horizon in Tampa Bay and Miami but then he faces Carolina who quite frankly should scare any fantasy QB owner facing them lately and that is IF he even makes it to that game.  Tony Romo is slated to be back sometime in the next 2-4 weeks, so if you pick up Cassel you most likely lose him before or just after the Carolina game which no matter how you look at it is bad.

If you do pick him up make sure to have a backup plan after Tampa Bay or consider Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick,  available in 81% of leagues, threw for 272 yards and 2 TDs Sunday against the Jaguars.  His injured thumb did not seem to bother him as he threw 2 touchdowns making that 6 of the last 7 games he has done that.

He has had a great year and I really don’t understand why he is available in so many leagues when QBs like Peyton Manning are on a roster in almost every one.  With Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to throw to and Chris Ivory to keep the defenses honest, there is no reason to be afraid of sticking him into your lineup.

He has a short week this week as he plays Thursday night against the Bills.  So just as I am telling you to pick him up, he draws a terrible matchup, but as I said before, don’t worry.  He’ll secure you at least 2 TDs and then he gets a little extra rest before playing Houston which should cure any production issues you may have in your lineup.

If you miss on Fitz, then make sure to hit on Marcus Mariotta.  After the start this guy had this season it is surprising that he is available in 65% of leagues.  Those leagues got to watch a QB on their waiver wire torch New Orleans for 371 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Look, he is a rookie so I understand that you worry about him giving you shaky numbers, but for the most part this rook is giving his owners over 200 yards and 2 TDs a game.  He has Carolina this next week, yuck.  After that however, his next three weeks are Jacksonville, Oakland and Jacksonville again.  Just what the doctor ordered.  Pick him up now, because after the Carolina game, just as he’s entering that 3 game skip through the tulips, he will not be available.

The running back situation is not quite as sticky as you may think.  Shaun Draughn had a very nice outing against Atlanta on Sunday rushing for 58 yards and catching 4 passes for 38 yards.  The 49ers backfield situation is up for grabs and this RB, who is available in 98% of leagues, is making a push for the top billing.  If you are considering this move, I urge you to give it a second thought.

More than half his yards came on a single run and he’s heading into a bye week.  When he comes off the bye week, he faces Seattle then Arizona.  Seriously, what could he possibly give you as far as production goes over the next 3 weeks.  Next to nothing that’s what.  Hopefully you are not willing to go almost a month without production. But instead you should consider someone along the lines of Karlos Williams.

Williams needs no introduction as we have talked about him before.  We’ve talked about his good size and great speed and how quick he hits the holes.  Well he did all of that again on Sunday against the Dolphins when he ran for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns.  This guy is still available in 62% of leagues which truly makes me question the sanity of the majority of you.

The only excuse I will lend you is that LeSean McCoy, who left the game and opened the opportunity for Williams because of a shoulder injury, said that the injury will not keep him from playing on Thursday against the Jets.

With the Jets on the horizon and McCoy in front of him, this week does not look good.  But with McCoy banged up already, one has to wonder if Williams will be seeing a lot more touches the second half of the season.  I am going to lean towards yes on this and we all know what he can do when given a chance.  He is a must-have if you are a McCoy owner and a nice RB3/flex even if you don’t.

About Rick Olson

Rick joined FantasySharks,com as a staff writer in 2013, though he fell in love with fantasy football in 1988 with the first league he played in. In his articles he tries to feature players off the radar or deeper than most since, in his experience, by the time a player is a waiver wire "must have" they are not usually available in most leagues.