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Shark League – Draft Analysis Write-up

Shark Leagues – Draft Analysis

 

Before I go into the analysis of the Shark Leagues Draft I need to say that it would not have been possible to do so without the hard work of one of our members. Carl Abel (Abelcl) took it upon himself to compile the results of the 5 drafts into an Excel spreadsheet, which we have reformatted for you.  Thanks for putting this together.  What it provided were some interesting figures and trends. 

 

Are you ready?  I know you will have a hard time believing this but 87% of the players taken in the first round were running backs (52 out of 60 picks).  Only 1 quarterback, Mike Vick, was taken in the first round by Hammerhead’s sm_olor (good luck with that pick?!).  Marvin Harrison (4 leagues), Terrell Owens (2 leagues) and Randy Moss (1 league) were the remaining non running backs taken in the first round. 

The consensus number 1 pick in the leagues was Ladanian Tomlinson.  Williams, Portis, Faulk, Alexander, Holmes, McAllister, Henry, James, Green and Barber all averaged a first round pick.  Tiki Barber had the largest deviation in the group having been picked as high as 11th and as low as 19th.  The only receivers to have an average value of a first round pick were Marvin Harrison (9.4) and Terrell Owens (12.4).

 

Round two saw much of the same with 67% (40/60) of the picks being running backs.   Round three saw that percentage drop to 23% (14/60).  A little math shows that after round three completed 22 of the 36 picks were running backs.  61% of the picks in the first three rounds were backs.  You can probably name the 10 teams that didn’t have a back drafted (Houston, New England, Detroit, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Chicago and Arizona to name a few).

 

Harrison, Owens, Moss, Burress, Moulds, Ward, Boston, Robinson, Holt and Horn made up the receivers taken in the first 3 rounds.  Vick, McNabb, Culpepper and Manning were the only quarterbacks worthy of a top 3 selection.  Surprisingly, a TE cracked the top 36 and it wasn’t Tony Gonzalez.  Jeremy Shockey was chosen, on average, with the 35.4 pick. 

 

How did the rest of the draft pan out?  I broke down the remaining rounds with the number of players selected at each position.  The table below is based on the averages of the 5 leagues.  If a player wasn’t picked in more than 2 of the leagues I removed them from the averages. 

 

 

 

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Kicker

Defense

4

2

4

4

2

 

 

5

1

6

5

 

 

 

6

1

1

7

2

 

1

7

5

3

2

2

 

 

8

4

2

4

 

 

2

9

3

2

4

2

 

1

10

 

7

2

 

2

1

11

1

2

3

1

4

1

12

2

2

5

1

1

1

13

2

1

2

3

2

2

14

 

3

2

3

2

2

15

2

4

3

 

1

2

16

 

1

2

2

4

3

 

 

Quarterback

Quarterbacks were taken in rounds 7 and 8.  I think most players like to have their starting team (less kicker and defense) by the 8th pick.  The quarterbacks available in rounds 7 and 8 included Favre, Hasselbeck, McNair, Bledsoe, Brady, Collins, Green and Maddox.  Wow!  That’s great value at quarterback in those rounds.  Hardly seems worthwhile to draft a top tier quarterback in the early rounds considering the drop-off in talent you’ll face in the running back position.

 

Wide Receiver

Wide receivers were most popular in round 3 with 7 chosen.  The middle rounds (5 – 9) saw a majority of wide receivers being taken.  It’s obvious there is a lot of depth at wide receiver this year so it may be a good strategy to grab your running backs, a quarterback and a tight end before you draft a wide receiver.  Would you be upset with Coles and Bruce or Rod Smith as receivers you draft in rounds 5 and 6 with Josh Reed as your 8th round pick?  Probably not. 

 

Tight End

Round 4 saw the remaining top tier tight ends fall off the boards without another tight end being drafted until the 6th round.  If you want one of top 3 tight ends, don’t bet on them being available after round 4. 

 

Kicker/Defense

Typically, you’d expect to see the Kicker and Defense numbers increase in the late rounds (after round 13).  That didn’t happen.  Obviously, the odd scoring for kickers played a part.  Based on some of the feedback in the Shark Tank, kicker scoring will be addressed next year.  What this shows me is that people realize kickers, as well as defenses, have the potential to score points.  One way to make your team better is to take the best kickers and defenses early. 

 

So, what does all this mean?  Simply put, everyone reads Doug Coutts’ articles on the importance of the running back!  No?  Maybe we all share the same belief that you must have a stud running back if you want any chance at winning the title.  For those of you that want to test the ‘Stud Running Back’ theory there are a couple of teams that bucked the trend and drafted the top WRs, a top QB, and a top TE/DT.  I did this in the Mako league drafting out of the 8 spot.  Aaron_Betry did this in the Great White League drafting at the corner.  Aaron has an excuse for this – all the top tier running backs were taken and it has got to be hard to draft a running back when Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens are staring you in the face.  I however don’t have an excuse.  I passed on Priest Holmes (gasp!).  It will be an interesting season to say the least. 

 

Thanks again to Carl for compiling the results.  Good luck to all the Sharks participating in this year’s Shark Leagues.  May the best Shark win!

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