Friday - May 24, 2019

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Shark Q & A Session – Calculated Risks

The only problem with drafting a fantasy team this early is that there is so much time left before the season and so many questions that still need to be answered.

 

Will Chris Brown be the super sleeper this season now that George has finally moved on? Is “Fragile” Faulk worth a first round pick? Will T.O. smell like B.O. in Philly or come up smelling like roses? The list goes on and on and they all make for interesting drafts. 

 

I think the key to a successful draft this early is not just in doing your homework but also in being willing to take calculated risks. These risky picks could very well be the ones that put your team over the top. They could also be the ones that send your team into the cellar. A perfect example of this is in this years “Shark Staffer Invitational”. With the 10th pick of the 5th round, I picked up Chris Brown (RB-Titans). The next three players to go were McNair, Bulger, and Pennington. Some damn good fantasy QB’s. A few days later George nixed all contract negotiations and is now looking for a new rock to carry. Now there is still a chance that the Titans could pick up another RB via trade or free agency but now Brown stands a good chance of becoming the top dog RB in Tennessee and this pick may very well pay off.

 

By doing your homework, choosing your risky picks wisely, and having the testicular fortitude to pull the trigger when your pick comes around you can walk away from the draft with a few solid sleepers that put your team into the winners circle.

 

Now lets take a look at some of the questions I fielded this week.

 

 

To send questions or comment to Corey D. click here. Please include you “Shark” name, town and state.

 

 

Joe T: I just traded Marshall Faulk and Ricky Williams to a friend in return for Tomlinson. Was this a good move?  Now my three keepers are Michael Vick, Tomlinson, & Michael Bennett.  I have an offer to trade Tomlinson for Deuce McAllister and Torry Holt. Is this a good move; then my keeper three would be Vick, McAllister and Holt.  Would you make this move??  Or should I keep Tomlinson, Vick and Michael Bennett.  I really need your help on this one.  RB that might be available when I pick #4 are – Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon, Julius Jones, & Michael Bennett if I don’t keep him?

 

Corey D: First lets talk about the initial trade of Faulk and Williams for Tomlinson. I never recommend trading two top ten RB’s for one other player. Points wise it usually doesn’t make sense. Sure there are rumors around Faulk’s health and he has been fragile the last few years but we are talking about Marshall Faulk here. This is a guy that missed three games last season and still had 5 games rushing for over a hundred yards (including 4 in a row), 10 TDs, and goose egged on fumbles.

I know Tomlinson has got a lot to offer and is one hell of a RB but giving up one workhorse top 10 RB and outstanding RB surrounded by rumors is usually not a good idea. The question now is what to do about this secondary trade.

I don’t know what your receivers look like but I suspect that Holt makes this trade tempting and McAllister takes the bite out of losing LT2, at least some of it. Holt is a good second WR and his consistency cannot be argued but he doesn’t have many years left so trading for him with the intent of using one of your keeper slots on him doesn’t make sense to me. Your keepers right now are not bad with Bennett being the lesser of the three. All are fairly young and should be able to provide you with solid numbers for at least the next few years. Keep what you got now.

With the fourth pick, I would recommend picking up Taylor. He’s a top ten back and there is no reason that I can see for you not to snag him right away. I would also highly recommend picking up Faulk’s back up Steven Jackson. If Faulk should go down this will leave you with some valuable trade material. Believe me if after trading him away Faulk should go down and you have his back up, your “friend” will be looking back to you again and you will be looking golden.

 

 

Brian C: I’ve yet to hear a convincing argument as to why QBs don’t (usually) get 6 pts for a TD pass. The most common reason is that the top QBs throw many more TDs than the best RBs and WRs score (although, see Priest Holmes), thus making QBs more valuable. Nonsense. Only one QB starts in most leagues, as opposed to at least two at the RB and WR positions. Also, it’s all relative anyway — QBs get 6, no more or less than anyone else gets for a TD. Even if I’m wrong and a 6-pt TD pass makes QBs more valuable, then so be it. Why should RBs be artificially valued much higher than QBs in fantasy leagues than they are in the actual NFL?

 

Corey D: Brian,

 

You make a good point and it’s a question that I cannot answer for sure but I do have an idea.

 

I think your missing the point of the current scoring system. Its a system built around the difficultly of the task not the number of attempts to perform the task. For example, the running back has a much harder task in rushing for a touchdown then a Quarterback or Wide Receiver has passing or catching a touchdown. The act of throwing the ball by the quarterback constitutes only half the task; the Wide Receiver still has to catch it. Therefore the RB receives more points.

 

But then you would have to wonder why then a RB and WR get the same amount of points for a touchdown? That is where attempts come into play. A wide receiver gets 3 points for catching a touchdown pass and then another 3 for running it in. The reason the wide receivers get that extra 3 points is because they get only a third of the attempts that QBs do (being one of many targets for a quarterback) and if they are lucky maybe half the attempts that running backs do (running backs can get 20+ touches a game. When was the last time you saw a receiver get 20+ receptions a game?) 

 

Does that make sense? That’s the way I understand the reason for QB receiving less points.

 

 

CurrDawg from Mentor, Ohio; I am in a 10 team keeper league that rewards points for touchdowns in increments (the longer the touchdown pass, run, or catch is the more points your player gets). Every year in our keeper league each owner keeps three players from the four offensive skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE). This year I am keeping Trent Green at QB, and Deuce McAllister at RB. This is my dilemma; I can’t decide whom to keep as my third player. Do I keep Terrell Owens and hope he returns to his old form catching passes from Donovan McNabb or do I keep Tony Gonzalez and prosper from the one-two punch that he and Trent Green give me when teaming up on TD’s.

 

Corey D: Tough decision. This is a decision that must be made based on your scoring system. Though you will get some solid points from the double up option with Gonzalez and Green can that be out weighted by the possible long TDs of Owens? Tony caught 10 TDs with an average length of 12 yards and Owen caught 9 TDs with an average length of 27 yards. While Terrell might be a loud mouth, two faced, cry baby he is still a stud WR and he will get his fair shots at the long ball in Philly.

 

Even with the double up from Trent to Tony, Terrell doubles Tony’s average TD length. Without looking at your scoring system I would say go with Terrell but I would plug those averages into your scoring system and see what comes up. It might help justify my advice.

 

 

To send questions or comment to Corey D. click here. Please include you “Shark” name, town and state.

 

 

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