Expectations based on where Ian Kennedy is being drafted (late Round, the 18th starting pitcher selected) are still high … a little too high. Do not pay for what was likely a career year. Most 2012 projections for him expect a regression to the mean and are in the 14-15 win range, 190 strikeouts, a decent walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP) in the 1.20’s but a spike in his earned run average north of 3.50.
We agree. Kennedy is about as likely to regress to the norm as any player out there. We expect him to be in the 3.50 earned run average range with about 180 strikeouts and nowhere near the total of wins. Remember how awful the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen was in 2010? Bullpens are tricky beings. Arizona’s overachieved last year and there’s no telling whether that will repeat or regress to something closer to 2010’s version. Regardless, independent of wins, those expected stats don’t justify where he’s being drafted anyway. Compare those numbers to say Ricky Romero, who is going two-and-a-half rounds later, or a healthy Tommy Hanson, who is priced similarly as Kennedy.
As you see, while Kennedy is someone you want in your fantasy lineup, you’ll be better off passing on him this year. The juice just isn’t worth the squeeze.