Friday - Mar 22, 2019

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Sleepers / Statistical Breakdown – Week 14

Playoffs, Playoffs, Playoffs well at least for most leagues.  This time of year you really want to go with the guys who got you there; however matchups and weather must still be in consideration.  I would never suggest taking chances on a flyer type pick hoping he goes off. Therefore I won’t mention players that haven’t done much and now the matchup is so good they are bound to do something because they probably won’t.  Good players are good for a reason and average or backup players are in that position because they aren’t as talented.  I will review good players that have not been that consistent but their matchup is extremely favorable. 

 

I have been on a pretty good roll lately with my sleeper picks.  Last week I had Kerry Collins, Nick Goings, and the three touchdown machine Drew Bennett all with great numbers.  I hope you took that advice if you had these players.  

 

Must Start Sleeper Plays:

 

Eddie Kennison has made this board a few times along with Jonnie Morton however the past few weeks have been very good to Kennison (except week 12 with one reception).  Last week he had 8 grabs for almost 150 yards and a score. Trent Green has been looking more and more to Kennison and he is coming through for his QB.  They face the Titans on Monday Night Football and Trent Green will look to throw early and often especially with Titans all pro cornerback Samari Rolle on injured reserve.  The past two weeks the Titans have given up 5 passing touchdowns (3 by Manning and 2 by Carr).   This game has the potential to be a shootout just as the Seattle and Dallas Monday night thriller was.  The big thing with this game is both teams are not very good which should make for loose game plan with not much at stake. 

 

Jake Plummer three reasons why Plummer is a good start.  1. He plays so much better at home.  Five touchdowns in last two home games and two touchdowns in last two road games. 2. He is coming off four interceptions and Shanahan almost two years later needs to validate why he signed Plummer.  Therefore after every bad game Plummer has always come back with a good game since Shanahan designs the game plan accordingly.  3. This is a must win game versus the lowly Dolphins and Denver needs and will get a big victory and I mean big in the sense of a blowout.  Drew Bledsoe ate up Miami’s defense last week and Plummer will do the same.  Expect big days from both Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie as well. 

  

Quality Sleeper Plays:

 

Roy Williams should produce good numbers against the Packers as the Lions will need to score points to stay in the game.  Expect the Packers to have 8 men at the line to stop Kevin Jones (I think they will do a decent job) making Joey Harrington who has been pretty bad beat them.  The secondary is not very good.  Check last week’s game against the Eagles.  Granted the Lions aren’t the Eagles but Harrington will have to air the ball out and he has no one else to speak of other than Williams.  For the record the Packers rank 30th in passing defense and have allowed 28 touchdowns.  That’s over 2 a game.  The Packers will win this in a blowout, which is all the more reason to go with Williams and feel confident in 80 plus yards and a score. 

  

Drew Bennett makes the list again.  Usually I don’t like playing average players after a big game however this is the exception to the rule.  Yes Bennett only had 3 receptions all touchdowns but the Titans host the Chiefs.  I said last week the matchup versus Indianapolis was as good as it gets well this is better than that.  The Chiefs can’t really stop anyone and they must focus at least try and contain Derrick Mason which will allow for Bennett to have more looks.  Obviously 3 touchdowns would be a pipe dream but 100 yards and a score is almost automatic.  As I said above this game will be a shootout of great proportions with all fantasy players producing well.  If you have Bennett he should be in your starting lineup unless you are extremely deep at receiver.

 

Maurice Hicks is a very new name to the fantasy world.  Kevan Barlow is injured and out for this weekend dynamic tilt in the desert.   Don’t expect eye popping numbers but the Cardinals defense ranks 30th in the league allowing almost 140 yards a game.  The only thing they have been good at is not allowing the other team to score much.  Only 8 rushing touchdowns however the have all come over the past 6 games.  Hicks will get 20 plus carries for the Niners, which makes him a decent play ONLY if you are in need of a running back.  The game will be low scoring which will allow Hicks to run for 4 quarters rather than throwing every down in a come form behind bid that the Niners have played in all year.  I would say around 100 yards of offense will be a good mark and a touchdown would be gravy. 

 

Passing Defenses

1. Tampa Bay (Drew Brees  – look at better options)

2. Miami   (Buffalo blew up on them last week – Plummer will too)

3. Washington (McNabb in for some average numbers)

4. Pittsburgh (Sit Chad Pennington if you have better matchups)

5. New York Giants (have allowed 19 touchdowns)

 

32. New Orleans (HORRIBLE!!!)

31. Kansas City (Shootout on Monday Night)

30. Green Bay  (Roy Williams will produce)

29. Indianapolis (David Carr to Andre Johnson all day)

28. Houston   (29 touchdowns allowed – Manning!!!)                       

 

Rushing Defenses

1.      Pittsburgh (Curtis Martin back to the past few years numbers)

2.   San Diego  (Michael Pittman will do it through receiving in San Diego)

3.    Washington (Only 6 td’s allowed)

4.    Buffalo (Just 4 touchdowns allowed all year)

5.    Denver (Would you ever play a Miami running back anyways)

 

32. New Orleans (JULIUS JONES – repeat of Monday Night – Maybe)

31. Cincinnati (Corey Dillon’s eyes are huge with this matchup)

30. Arizona (139.8 yards allowed)

29. Cleveland (16 touchdowns allowed)

28. St Louis (Nick Goings should do well again)

 

Best of luck as always.

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