Welcome to another week of “Hitting Paydirt” where we will be focusing on touchdown bets, but also sprinkling in player props and other betting selections. Plays will also be released on Twitter @nicky_stats live during games and throughout the season.
About Last Week
No plays last week.
Season Total: +5.75 Units
In case you are not familiar, tracking units goes as follows. Everything will be calculated as 1 unit. You will either risk 1 unit if the bet is (+), or lay the amount to win 1 unit if the bet is (-). For example, if Buffalo is +2.5 (-110) you risk 1.1 to win 1. If a parlay is +1300, you risk 1 to win 13.
All it takes is one big hit here or there to be very profitable this season. It’s been a few losing weeks in a row so hoping to get back on track this week.
It was a very profitable Thanksgiving 2021 so hoping that rolls on this year …
BUFFALO/DETROIT TD Same Game parlay (SGP)
This is the juiciest game on the board (Total = 54.5) so I will devote most of my plays to this game …
- Josh Allen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Dawson Knox +1700 (Caesars)
- Look for Amon-Ra St. Brown to get back on track and hit paydirt as he hasn’t scored since Week 2. His targets and receptions have been ramped back up to normal over the last two weeks as he is back to being healthy. I will likely add him to a yardage prop as well, as the rest of the Detroit receivers are banged up. Detroit has given up the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the league (seven) which lead me to Dawson Knox and Josh Allen added some extra value to the parlay.
- Stefon Diggs, Khalil Shakir, Jamaal Williams +4655 (FanDuel)
- Going with two favorites from each team and a long shot with Buffalo’s Shakir.
Going to build mainly around these for this game in two-player parlays at small prices:
- Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Dawson Knox, Amon-Ra St. Brown.
- Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz +812
- Like these two the best on the card.
- Dawson Knox, Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry +4824
- Wanted to add one for each game for a long shot play.
TWO TOUCHDOWN PROPS
- Dawson Knox +1800 (FanDuel) – Best odds on any book by far.
- 2 TD Parlay: Knox and Schultz (FanDuel) +30300
- Longshot play to throw a few bucks on (1/2 unit).
FIRST TOUCHDOWN PLAYS
Only going with value plays that are +1500 or higher:
- Dawson Knox +1500 (FanDuel)
- NEW YORK GIANTS/DALLAS
- Dak Prescott +2000 (DraftKings)
- NEW ENGLAND/MINNESOTA
- Most Pass Yards on Thanksgiving: Josh Allen +240 (DraftKings or Caesars)
- Eating the chalk with the favorite here. I think the other two games could be low scoring and Allen should approach 300 yards in this one.
That’s it for Thursday for now. I will likely add a few more official plays on Twitter and tag FantasySharks tomorrow night or Thursday morning. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!