Monday - Jun 21, 2021

Home / Wagering / HITTING PAYDIRT: Week 11


Welcome back to Hitting Paydirt, a weekly article that looks at the touchdown scorers this week for your sports betting needs. When looking for touchdown scorers, value is important. Some sites offer in-game betting on touchdown scorers so if you can hold off on taking a star player like Dalvin Cook at -250 to score, wait until late in the first quarter or second quarter to place a bet at a better number if he is still scoreless.

I am not suggesting to play all of these touchdown scorers below, but if there is value, they will be listed. You should not bet the same amount per player and depending on your book, you may also be able to parlay some of these. I’ll use the lines from DraftKings and Fanduel. Be sure to shop your books for the best lines as they can be drastically different from site to site.

Fanduel offers Same Game Parlays where you can combine multiple players from the same game to score a touchdown. On Draftkings, you can parlay players from different games, but not the same one. The best price from each site is listed next to each player as of Saturday at noon.

Week 11 Picks

The higher the Vegas total, the better the touchdown chances, of course. There are only two games with totals over 50 this week: Packers @ Colts and Chiefs @ Raiders. There are still a few games in the high 40’s, which imply about six total TD’s in the game.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (49)

Alvin Kamara (-145)

Julio Jones (+135)

Calvin Ridley (+150)

This number seems too low for Kamara, who is a good candidate for a parlay at this price. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley have solid plus prices and I’m not quite sure why Ridley has better odds since he should be back at full strength.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Football Team (47.5)

Tee Higgins (+180)

Samaje Perine (+480)

With Joe Mixon out and Gio Bernard’s odds too low (+135), Perine is worth a look at this number on Fanduel. Tee Higgins is +180 on Draftkings compared to +135 on Fanduel. He is clearly the #1 threat in the Bengals WR crew. There is no value on Washington’s side.

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans

Sony Michel (+490)

James White (+490)

Two big numbers on these NE running backs this week. Even though Damien Harris is the lead back followed by Rex Burkhead, you never know what to expect in the Patriot backfield. Cam Newton obviously is also a goal-line threat. I wouldn’t go crazy on these two, but a small bet on each is worth it at 5/1 odds.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns

Dallas Goedert (+300)

Jalen Reagor (+320)

I’m also going in on Goedert Over 38.5 receiving yards. He is due for a big game and this looks like a good spot. There is good value on Reagor also at that number. Miles Sanders (+110) ran well last week, but two other Eagle RB’s scored touchdowns last week. He is also worth a look at plus money.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (46)

Chase Claypool (+210)

Take what they give you. That’s some of the best advice when it comes to gambling. Go by the numbers and find your best value. Last week I thought the value was too good on Diontae Johnson to score and he cashed in at 15/1. This week, Chase Claypool is +210 on Draftkings.  Any of the top three Steeler WR’s are good bets to score each week so take what they give you and bet the best value.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (56.5)

This is a great game for a few same-game parlays on Fanduel. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Demarcus Robinson are all good options in the passing game with Sammy Watkins out. Nelson Agholor (+240) and Henry Ruggs III (+250) are both great value choices.

About Nick Pagliuca

Nick has been competitively playing fantasy sports for over 15 years and has been very active in sports betting analysis. Nick participates mainly in fantasy football and offers gambling advice on all major sports.