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Week 5: Feb 15 – Feb 21
February 21, 2021
Outcome: -20
| Team(s) | Vs. | Time (ET) | Bet Type | Odds | Amount | Status | Result | Total |
| No Bet | ||||||||
| Montreal | @Ottawa | 7:00pm | ML | -215 | 15 | Locked | L | -15 |
| No Bet | ||||||||
| Montreal | @Ottawa | 7:00pm | PL | +117 | 5 | Locked | L | -5 |
Huh. Well, that didn’t go completely as planned. There are lessons being learned though and it’s been fun doing this but we do need to turn this ship around. I believe that there is a skew somewhere because of the format change in hockey this year where the Canadian teams play each other and the US teams plays each other but also the series concept, I think it’s different than the pre-Covid play a team once and move on to the next arena. It skews the numbers. Like, don’t we all know in a 3-game series that if you win the first two, the hardest game to win will be that third one? If Detroit can beat Florida (like last night) then truly anything can happen in the NHL and sometimes you take one on the chin because of it. We backed away from Florida because there was a small advantage to Detroit in a couple of areas and it was enough for us to back off the bet. Good thing we did. The rest were not as good. I’m keeping the numbers small until we find a rhythm. I’ve used this system with a lot of success in the past and I feel like our time is still to come as it’s still very early in the season and the trends in the data have yet to really start to appear. So let’s get after it today with four games on the slate.
February 20, 2021
Outcome: -24.79
| Team(s) | Vs. | Time (ET) | Bet Type | Odds | Amount | Status | Result | Total |
| New Jersey | Buffalo | 12:30pm | ML | -125 | 10 |
Locked | L | -10 |
| Vegas | Colorado | 3:00pm | U | 5.5 | 10 | Locked | W | +9 |
| No Bet |
||||||||
| Florida | @Detroit | 5:00pm | O | 5.5 | 8 | Locked | L | -8 |
| Tampa Bay | @Carolina | 7:00pm | ML | -130 | 12.50 | Locked | L | -12.50 |
| St. Louis | San Jose | 7:00pm | ML | -180 | 5 | Locked | L | -5 |
| No bet | ||||||||
| St. Louis | San Jose | 7:00pm | U | 6 | 7.50 | Locked | L | -7.50 |
| Columbus | Nashville | 7:00pm | ML | -132 | 10 | Locked | L | -10 |
| No Bet | ||||||||
| Anaheim | Minnesota | 9:00pm | ML | +120 | 5 | Locked | L | -5 |
| Edmonton | Calgary | 10:00pm | ML | -136 | 20 | Locked | W | +14.71 |
| Edmonton | Calgary | 10:00pm | PL | +190 | 5 | Locked |
W | +9.50 |
Thank you Edmonton. Chicago started well in their game and did score three goals but Carolina proved to be way too much for them to handle. With 16 games left in the week, 12 of them are today! So let’s get to work and see what transpires. I predict a lot of movement today so keep an eye on this page. A winning week is still very much in reach with a big day on tap.
P.S. Apologies for the ads, we’re switching ad providers and doing some off-season testing. It should calm down in the next few days. I do try to find the right balance and do not have intrusive or ads that block your view on purpose. But it’s the ads that keep the lights on. Long story short, the ads are on full blast right now for testing, we’ll get them to behave better over the next few days, please pardon our dust as we do a little remodeling.
February 19, 2021
Outcome: +21.50
| Team(s) | Vs. | Time (ET) | Bet Type | Odds | Amount | Status | Result | Total |
| Chicago | @Carolina | 7:00pm | ML | +160 | 10 | Locked | L | -10 |
| Edmonton | @Calgary | 9:00pm | ML | +100 | 22.50 | Locked | W | +22.50 |
| Edmonton | @Calgary | 9:00pm | U | 6.5 | 10 | Locked |
W | +9 |
Not gonna lie, that one stung a little. The Blues were good but not quite good enough. We were one goal away from winning the day, if the Blues scored one more or if they prevented one that they let through against San Jose, we would have won the day. One goal was all the difference. I’m glad we stayed away from the B’s last night in their loss to New Jersey, that turned out to be a good move. Back at it. Just four games to consider for today.
Update: This is a work in progress (in case that wasn’t obvious) but I really tore things apart this morning and went through each game line by line last night comparing it to our predictive models for each game and I’ve made a few adjustments. I made an adjustment to how we calculate home ice advantage and also tightened the window a bit on how far back we look for data. The model leans a little more toward “what have you done for me lately” now and I liked how last night looked with these changes. That’s part of this, it’s about tinkering until you find a sweet spot.
Update: The strength of this system for me has always been it’s ability to pick the dogs, which is good because they pay a lot better! It’s been bugging me that so many favorites have been popping up lately but I pawned that off a bit on the lines makers setting some good initial lines. I’m encouraged that for tonight, we’re on not one but two dogs, which is more familiar territory for me. It’s an interesting parlay too, I punched Chicago and Edmonton into DraftKings and they were giving +420. That would be a tidy profit indeed but I think I’ll just play the money lines for tonight and see what develops.
February 18, 2021
Outcome: -20.62
| Team(s) | Vs. | Time (ET) | Bet Type | Odds | Amount | Status | Result | Total |
| NY Islanders | @Pittsburgh | 7:00pm | ML | +105 | 6 | Locked | L | -6 |
| Boston | New Jersey | 7:00pm | ML | -220 | 5 | No bet |
||
| St. Louis | San Jose | 8:00pm | ML | -186 | 10 | Locked | W | +5.38 |
| St. Louis | San Jose | 8:00pm | PL | +130 | 10 | Locked | L | -10 |
| Anaheim | Minnesota | 10:00pm | ML | +110 | 10 | Locked | L | -10 |
Vancouver has been skating well lately but the house had Calgary as a firm favorite, as did we, but in the immortal words of AC/DC we were.. Shot Down In Flames! Once again, our over/under frienemies helped to pick us up by the boot straps. Toronto did end up winning last night but by just one goal as predicted and while it was a winner, -315 for a one goal advantage? Meh.. We’ve been riding that edge again this week, the good news, we are just one good score away from going on top this week. With nine games on the card today, hopefully there’s something juicy for us to sink our teeth into. Let’s get to work.
Update: As usual, the odds makers have been doing a pretty good job of setting the lines, they certainly nailed the over/unders for tonight. We’re on the Blues though, that’s the one game that has a lot of opportunity for us. I wouldn’t fault you for thinking about the over (5.5) in that game either but while it’s the strongest over/under of the day, it isn’t quite there yet for placing hard earned capital on it. Note too that everything with the Blues supposes that Jones is in goal tonight for San Jose, if that switches to Dubnyk, we’re still taking the Blues but if you like the over, that changes, the PL bet comes off the board and we’ll reduce the ML bet a little.
February 17, 2021
Outcome: -1
| Team(s) | Vs. | Time (ET) | Bet Type | Odds | Amount | Status | Result | Total |
| Toronto | Ottawa | 7:00pm | ML | -295 | 12.50 | No Bet | ||
| Calgary | Vancouver | 10:00pm | ML | -148 | 10 | Locked | L | -10 |
| Winnipeg | @Edmonton | 10:00pm | U | 6.5 | 10 | Locked | W | +9 |
The over/unders have been ironically lessening the blow these days. All small bets so far this week, and though we’ve started out of the gate slow, the finish line is still in view. The good games have been falling apart this week later in the day with lineup and goalie changes. Let’s see what today has in store for us.
Update: After careful consideration, I’m not going to take Toronto tonight. I think they’ll win but the more I stare at it, it could be by just a one goal difference (I have it 4-3 Toronto) and when I consider that ridiculous -295 (that has now moved to -315) line, the payoff just isn’t worth the loss of capital risk. There will be better places to bet our 12.50 down the road – so I’m out. Go Flames.
February 16, 2021
Outcome: -10.30
| Team(s) | Vs. | Time (ET) | Bet Type | Odds | Amount | Status | Result | Total |
| NY Rangers | New Jersey | 7:00pm | ML | -148 | 15 | No Bet |
||
| Pittsburgh | Washington | 7:00pm | ML | -125 | 7.50 | Locked | L | -7.50 |
| NY Islanders | @Buffalo | 7:00pm | ML | -129 | 5 | No Bet | ||
| Minnesota | @L.A. | 10:00pm | ML | -132 | 10 | Locked | L | -10 |
| Colorado | @Vegas | 10:00pm | U | 5.5 | 8 | Locked | W | +7.20 |
What a mess yesterday. So many games had so many unexpected changes throughout the day including one being postponed but that’s the state of the NHL today during Covid. What started with so much promise ended with just a few small bets here and there with mixed results. Both our underdog bets lost, we just needed one to go on top. In hindsight, it may have been a bit early to place a bet on Buffalo, it was a minimum bet (5) but still.. it probably made more sense to let them get their skates back underneath them again after so much time off. Onward and upward!
February 15, 2021
Outcome: -3.54
| Team(s) | Vs. | Time (ET) | Bet Type | Odds | Amount | Status | Result | Total |
| St. Louis | @Arizona | 4:00pm | O | 5.5 | 5 | No bet | ||
| Tampa Bay | Florida | 7:00pm | ML | -172 | 20 | No bet |
||
| Buffalo | NY Islanders | 7:00pm | ML | +112 | 5 | Locked | L | -5 |
| Carolina | Columbus | 7:00pm | ML | -167 | 8 | Locked | W | +4.79 |
| Dallas | Nashville | 8:30pm | ML | -177 | 15 | Postponed | ||
| Winnipeg | @Edmonton | 9:00pm | ML | +117 | 8 | No bet | ||
| Calgary | @Vancouver | 10:00pm | ML | -120 | 8 | Locked | W | +6.67 |
| Anaheim | @San Jose | 10:30pm | ML | +102 | 10 | Locked | L | -10 |
We didn’t win the week last week but had some good scores and finished on a high note. Let’s see what Week 5 has in store.
Bet Type
PL – Puck Line
ML – Money Line
O – Over
U – Under
Odds
Odds are from DraftKings. Your odds may differ.
Amount
Used for reference. We treat all bets each day as an overall block so it is important to maintain the ratios between the bets when adjusting to your personal limits.
Status
Pending: We are waiting for information, usually it’s confirmation of who the starting goalie’s will be in the game for both teams. Wagers are created each morning using the expected goalies. If expectations change, we reevaluate the bet before locking it in.
Warning: Something we are concerned about has occurred and we are waiting for confirmation. The bet remains a pending bet but it’s leaning more toward a no bet with the latest undesirable developments.
No bet: Something has changed that has caused us to no longer consider this wager.
Likely: We’re waiting on one or two confirmations to come in but all signs point to this being a good bet.
Locked: Place the bet.
Total
Calculated using a 10% “vig” for straight bets and over/under bets. The vig is included in the odds for a ML (Money Line) bet.