Wednesday - Nov 13, 2019

Home / Commentary / SPREADING CHEDDAR: The One Stop Gambling Shop – Week 8

SPREADING CHEDDAR: The One Stop Gambling Shop – Week 8

There is a NEW SECTION OF THE WEBSITE that is solely dedicated to betting. You will find a comprehensive model that not only aims to highlight inefficiencies in Spreads and Over/Under lines but will also provide a bookmaker that is offering the bet with the most lucrative odds.

I will post my favorite picks from the model and sprinkle in some Player Prop bets to keep it spicy. If the mood strikes, you can expect some parlays to carry through the entire weekend as well.

Starting Bank Roll: 1000 Units
Current Bank Roll: 1005Units
Overall Record: (45-40-0)
Week 5 Results: +3Units

Spreads:

15U: Chicago -3.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Chargers – The Chargers are the most self-destructing team in the NFL. While the return of Russell Okung will certainly help protect Rivers, he will be on a snap count this week. The Bears have too much power up front for the Chargers’ wonky offense.

15U: Jacksonville -6 (-110) vs. New York Jets – Sam Darnold had a night to forget last week against the Patriots. Unfortunately, it isn’t getting much better this week. It is not all Darnold’s fault. He is stuck behind a patchwork offensive line and with a coach who is unable to make simple adjustments during a game.

10U: Los Angeles Rams -11 (-110) vs. Cincinnati – We may have an AJ McCarron sighting this week if Andy Dalton continues his streak of turnovers. Dalton’s time is likely up in Cincinnati at the end of this year so there is not a lot of value in letting this continue. This is also one of the softest matchups Aaron Donald will face all season.

10U: Pittsburgh -14 (-110) vs. Miami – The Steelers are coming off a bye as they welcome the hapless Dolphins to town on Monday night. Mason Rudolph is returning from his concussion and will sit comfortably behind one of the leagues best offensive lines, which should have no problem handling the lack of pass rush talent on the other side.

Over/Under:

10U: New Orleans vs. Arizona : Under 48 (-110) – Whether it is Drew Brees or Teddy Bridgewater under center, this game is all about the Saints top tier defense. It looks more and more like this game will be without the difference makers of Alvin Kamara and David Johnson from both teams.

10U: San Francisco vs. Carolina : Over 41.5 (-110) – The defenses for the 49ers and Panthers rank near the top and are right behind the Patriots at 2nd and 3rd respectively. Both defenses have also shown a knack for creating turnovers, which you would think lends to less points scored overall, but shorter fields can be a game changer.

Player Props:

15U: Kyle Allen Passing Yards Under 229.5 (-115) –  The 49ers are still on pace to have one of the best defenses of all time and Allen averages less than this many yards per game, which have come against much worse teams.

15U: Cole Beasley Receptions Over 3.5 (-140) –  The rumors are true. The Eagles have a weak pass defense. Beasley has emerged as Josh Allen’s security blanket and leads the team in targets through seven weeks.

10U: T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Under 36.5 (-115) –  Hockenson has only topped 35 receiving yards in one game this year, which happened to come against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are by far the worst team at defending tight ends.

10U: Kenny Stills Receiving Yards Over 63.5 (-115) –  Stills was the biggest beneficiary of Will Fuller’s absence last week and he brings a similar skill set to the table. Not much will change this week as Fuller has already been rules out with a hamstring injury.

10U: Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Over 64.5 (-115) –  Henry has more targets than any other tight end since he returned from injury two weeks. Let’s be honest, we all know the affinity that Phillip Rivers has for tight ends. Keenan Allen will be limited at best and Henry has already been receiving more than 20% of the targets.

About Jordan Gingery

Jordan dreams of a world where kickers and defenses are picked in the last two rounds of fantasy drafts and the Carolina Panthers win the Superbowl every year. As a Fantasy Football Staff Writer at Fantasy Sharks, he is responsible for the weekly Survivor article during the regular season and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). When he is not giving advice and helping people win their fantasy champions, he can be found brewing his own beer... and drinking it!