Saturday - Dec 7, 2019

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SPREADING CHEDDAR: The One Stop Gambling Shop – Week 12

There is a NEW SECTION OF THE WEBSITE that is solely dedicated to betting. You will find a comprehensive model that not only aims to highlight inefficiencies in Spreads and Over/Under lines but will also provide a bookmaker that is offering the bet with the most lucrative odds.

I will post my favorite picks from the model and sprinkle in some Player Prop bets to keep it spicy. If the mood strikes, you can expect some parlays to carry through the entire weekend as well.

Season Results: -4 Units
Overall Record: (68-62-0)
Week 11 Results: -24 Units

Spreads:

15U: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) @ Cincinnati – The Steelers offense hasn’t done much lately, but they won’t need to against the Bengals this weekend. Andy DaltonRyan Finley… it doesn’t matter. This team leads the league in turnovers, while the Steelers defense is second in the league for takeaways behind only the Patriots.

10U: Miami +10.5 (-110) vs. Cleveland – The loss of Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi will have a tremendous impact on the Browns defense. The defensive line was the only bright spot in Cleveland, and with the Dolphins playing a little better each week, a double-digit spread for Baker Mayfield is a big ask.

10U: Tampa Bay +4.5 (-110) @ Atlanta – Fear not, Jameis Winston looks to be completely healthy after coming out of Week 11 with an injured ankle. The Falcons have looked good recently but have still yet to cover a spread as a favorite this season.

Moneyline Parlay:

15U: (+154)

  • New England (-300) Dallas – This game is more about coaching than anything else. Jason Garret is not going into New England and coming out with a win against one of the best defenses that Bill Belichik has ever had.
  • New Orleans (-490) Carolina – Kyle Allen had a nice run, but the turnovers are starting to pile up and Marshon Lattimore is on track to return for the Saints.
  • Baltimore (-169) @ Los Angeles Rams – Jared Goff has 3 interceptions and 0 touchdowns in the last two games, and it won’t get any easier against the Ravens.

Over/Under:

15U: Tennessee vs. Jacksonville : Under 41.5 (-110) – A tale of two struggling offenses that face off against two stout defensive lines. There will be turnover, sloppiness, and not a lot of points scored as both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league for number of plays that they run

10U: Philadelphia vs. Seattle : Under 48 (-110) – The Eagles offense is hurting. There are no wide receivers and Carson Wentz is constantly pushing Jared Goff for the Biggest Disappointment of the Season award.

Player Props:

15U:  Odell Beckham Jr Receiving Yards Over 67.5 (-115) – Beckham has been creating separation all season long and it will be even easier this weekend.

10U: Kalen Ballage Rushing Yards Over 33.5 (-115) –  Ballage is the only one getting carries in Miami and the Browns will be without their best two linemen. This is achievable even at 2.5 yards per carry.

10U: Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Under 103.5 (-115) –  Thomas is riding a 4 game streak of over 100 receiving yards, but this is the first time that he has even had more than 2 games in a row of more than 100 yards. Reversion to the mean.

10U: Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Under 76.5 (-115) –  Jameis Winston has been spreading the ball around more in the last few games than he has in his entire career. Godwin will still be involved, but the monster games from the middle of the season are unlikely at this point.

About Jordan Gingery

Jordan dreams of a world where kickers and defenses are picked in the last two rounds of fantasy drafts and the Carolina Panthers win the Superbowl every year. As a Fantasy Football Staff Writer at Fantasy Sharks, he is responsible for the weekly Survivor article during the regular season and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). When he is not giving advice and helping people win their fantasy champions, he can be found brewing his own beer... and drinking it!