SPREADING CHEDDAR: The One Stop Gambling Shop – Week 16

There is a NEW SECTION OF THE WEBSITE that is solely dedicated to betting. You will find a comprehensive model that not only aims to highlight inefficiencies in Spreads and Over/Under lines but will also provide a bookmaker that is offering the bet with the most lucrative odds.

I will post my favorite picks from the model and sprinkle in some Player Prop bets to keep it spicy. If the mood strikes, you can expect some parlays to carry through the entire weekend as well.

Spreads

15U: Kansas City -6 (-110) @ Chicago – The Chiefs defense has vastly improved in recent weeks as they’ve held opposing teams to under 300 yards of total offense. That is not a great sign for Mitch Trubisky who commands a Bears offense that already averages under that mark.

15U: Green Bay +5.5 (-110) @ Minnesota – While the Vikings are a virtual lock for a wild card slot, their chances of missing the playoffs are just as unlikely as them winning the division. The Packers, on the other hand, are still in the mix for a first round bye. The Vikings have been one of the most efficient teams in the NFL at using play action and the absence of Dalvin Cook, and possibly Alexander Mattison, will certainly have an effect on how good this offense can be.

10U: Houston -3 (-110) @ Tampa Bay – It looks like Jameis Winston will play, but the Texans are a far better team than the Lions who clawed their way back against the Buccaneers in Week 15.

10U: Denver -6.5 (-110) vs. Detroit – Matt Patricia is on the hot seat after the team continues its seven game losing streak. David Blough has been moderately serviceable in his first three game, but now he travels to Denver in December for the first time outside of a dome.

Moneyline Parlay

10U: (+184)

• Baltimore (-476) @ Cleveland – This is a revenge game for the Ravens. The Browns are also one of the worst teams in the league and are poorly coached. It will be exciting to watch a Lamar Jackson offense against the 28^th ranked run defense.
• New Orleans (-135) @ Tennessee – The Titans do very well when they get an early lead and continue to control the game. Unfortunately for them, the Saints are one of the best teams in the league at scoring first and the Titans will be in trouble against this defense if they need to abandon the run game.
• San Francisco (-294) Los Angeles Rams – The 49ers can not lose this game if they want to keep a realistic show alive at winning the division and potentially being the overall #1 seed. A loss here all but ensures that they will be traveling to either Philadelphia or Dallas during the first week of the playoffs.

Over/Under

10U: New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh : Over 37 (-110) – Neither the Jets offense or the Steelers offense incites excitement for the over, except when you look at how often these teams turn the ball over. Field goals will help push this over.

10U: Cleveland vs. Baltimore : Over 48.5 (-110) – This will be a similar score to the Ravens week 1 matchup against the Dolphins.

Player Props

15U: Tom Brady Passing Yards Under 229.5 (-115) – The Bills have one of the best pass defenses in the league and Brady has only passed this mark once in the past 5 games.

15U: James Conner Rushing Yards Over 37.5 (-115) – Conner looked to be completely over his shoulder injury when he returned to action last week. He only received 8 carries, which was still more than any other RB, but that will continue to rise.

10U: James White Total Receptions Over 4.5 (+100) – Julian Edelman is questionable for Saturday and the rest of the wide receivers have not proven to be reliable options in the passing game.

10U: Andy Dalton Total Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (+100) – The Dolphins have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. If Eli Manning could do it, so can Andy Dalton.

10U: Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Over 60.5 (-115) –  Jackson has rushed for more than 60 yards in all but three games this season.