Monday - Oct 21, 2019

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SPREADING CHEDDAR: The One Stop Gambling Shop – Week 4

There is a NEW SECTION OF THE WEBSITE that is solely dedicated to betting. You will find a comprehensive model that not only aims to highlight inefficiencies in Spreads and Over/Under lines but will also provide a bookmaker that is offering the bet with the most lucrative odds.

I will post my favorite picks from the model and sprinkle in some Player Prop bets to keep it spicy. If the mood strikes, you can expect some parlays to carry through the entire weekend as well.

Starting Bank Roll: 1000 Units
Current Bank Roll: 1047 Units
Overall Record: (21-12-0)
Week 3 Results: -10 Units

 

Spreads

15U: Miami +16 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Chargers – We all know where Miami stands, but asking the Chargers to cover 16 points is a tall order. The Chargers defense is among the worst in the league defending the run and pass. The Chargers are also on the road and still without a kicker.

10U: Minnesota +2 (-110) at Chicago – Mitch Trubisky looked fine against one of the worst defenses in the league last week. “Fine” isn’t going to cut it most weeks, especially against Minnesota. Dalvin Cook has been an absolute monster and the passing game hasn’t really been involved. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen remain as one of the best wide receiver duos in the league and they will get involved if needed.

10U: Baltimore -6.5 (-110) vs. Cleveland – Baltimore has lacked a pass rush this year, but the Cleveland offensive line is ready to change that. Baker Mayfield gets progressively worse with each quarter. In the fourth quarter alone, Mayfield has five interceptions and has completed less than half his passes.

 

Over/Under

10U: Baltimore vs. Cleveland : Over 45 (-110) – There is a lot to like about Baltimore in this matchup. Its defense has been suspect at times so the Cleveland play-makers should be able to put up enough points and push this past the over.

5U: Minnesota at Chicago : Over 38 (-110) – There are a lot of play-makers in this game and while both defenses are very good, 38 is a low total to overcome.

 

Player Props

15U: Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Over 320.5 (-110) – There is a LOT of chatter about how this is Mahomes’ first indoor game in the NFL and how he threw for an average of 492 yards per game in four dome games during college. Guess what? None of that matters. Of course there is going to be an offensive explosion with Kansas City. This over is hitting no matter where the game is played.

10U: Sony Michel Rushing Yards Under 50.5 (-115) – Michel has been abysmal in two games this year. He averaged 1 yard per carry against Pittsburgh and the New York Jets. The worse news to hit Michel is that James Develin is out for the year, which will lend New England to use more packages involving Rex Burkhead and James White.

10U: Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Under 74.5 (-115) – This bet is less about Freeman himself, and more about the overall Atlanta team. There is a lot of talent that seem to look lost every weekend. Freeman has surpassed 75 rushing yards just five times in his last 19 games dating back to the end of the 2016 season.

10U: Todd Gurley Rushing Yards Under 64.5 (-115) – Gurley has been fine so far this year, but he has not faced a run defense nearly as good as he will this Sunday. Tampa Bay held Christian McCaffrey to an average of 2.3 yards per carry in Week 2 and held Saquon Barkley to 1.2 yards per carry before his early exit last week.

10U: Kyler Murray Passing Attempts Over 38.5 (-105) – The Arizona offense has been exactly what we all expected. Passing, passing and more passing. This week should not be any different. Seattle will be ahead and Murray will need to play catch-up.

5U: Kirk Cousins Passing Attempts Under 32.5 (-115) – Minnesota is a run first team and passes when it needs to. Even if Minnesota is behind, it will not totally abandon what they do best … which is run the ball.

About Jordan Gingery

Jordan dreams of a world where kickers and defenses are picked in the last two rounds of fantasy drafts and the Carolina Panthers win the Superbowl every year. As a Fantasy Football Staff Writer at Fantasy Sharks, he is responsible for the weekly Survivor article during the regular season and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). When he is not giving advice and helping people win their fantasy champions, he can be found brewing his own beer... and drinking it!