Monday - Oct 21, 2019

Home / Commentary / SPREADING CHEDDAR: The One Stop Gambling Shop – Week 5

SPREADING CHEDDAR: The One Stop Gambling Shop – Week 5

There is a NEW SECTION OF THE WEBSITE that is solely dedicated to betting. You will find a comprehensive model that not only aims to highlight inefficiencies in Spreads and Over/Under lines but will also provide a bookmaker that is offering the bet with the most lucrative odds.

I will post my favorite picks from the model and sprinkle in some Player Prop bets to keep it spicy. If the mood strikes, you can expect some parlays to carry through the entire weekend as well.

Starting Bank Roll: 1000 Units
Current Bank Roll: 984 Units
Overall Record: (24-20-0)
Week 5 Results: -63 Units

Spreads

15U: Chicago -5 (-110) @ Oakland – A London game! The Raiders are coming off a win against a Colts team that has one of the worst defenses in the league. Khalil Mack and the Bears are quite a different story.

15U: Carolina -3 (-110) vs. Jacksonville – Kyle Allen is undefeated as a starter and all three wins came on the road. The Jaguars are coming to town without Jalen Ramsey and while Gardner Minshew II has been impressive, the Panthers defense is far tougher than any he has faced this year.

10U: Tampa Bay +3 (-110) @ New Orleans – The NFC South has always been a wonky division when teams play each other. In the last six games between NFC South teams, the road team has won all of them outright. This game will look a lot like the Cowboys vs. Saints game from last week.

10U: Tennessee -3 (-110) vs. Buffalo – At this time, we are still unsure if we are seeing Matt Barkley or Josh Allen under center for the Bills. What we do know is that we are either seeing Matt Barkley or Josh Allen without any practice reps under center.

5U: San Francisco -4 (-110) vs. Cleveland – The Browns pulled out a big win in Baltimore last week while riding on the back of Nick Chubb. The problem with this week is that the 49ers aren’t sporting one of the leagues worst defenses, they have one of the best. The 49ers are also 8-2 in their last ten Monday night games. While the Browns offense will naturally come back down to earth anyway, they are particularly bad in night games.

Over/Under

10U: New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay : Under 46 (-110) – 9 out of the last 11 Saints games against NFC opponents have gone Under. Most of those were even with Drew Brees!

10U: Houston vs. Atlanta : Under 50 (-110) – The last seven home games for the Texans have gone Under. Despite all the star power, both offenses are struggling to run the ball, pass the ball, and ultimately score points.

Player Props

15U: Andy Dalton Passing Yards Over 255.5 (-110) – Last week was bad – plain and simple. It was the first game this season where Dalton just couldn’t move the ball. The Cardinals like to make other quarterbacks feel good and this game should be high scoring given the poor defenses for both teams.

15U: Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Over 315.5 (-110) – Revisiting this after falling just short last week. The Colts have one of the worst defenses in the league and Mahomes is going to have a feast.

10U: Tyler Eifert Receiving Yards Over 30.5 (-115) – Staying with the same of how bad the Cardinals are on defense. Through four games, opposing tight ends have been the leading receivers on their team in every single match.

10U: Larry Fitzgerald Receiving Yards Over 69.5 (-115)Christian Kirk is out this week and the Cardinals rank third in total pass attempts. Fitzgerald was already getting his fair share, but Kirk being out only increases his opportunity.

10U: Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Under 48.5 (-110)Christian Kirk is out this week and the Cardinals rank third in total pass attempts. Fitzgerald was already getting his fair share, but Kirk being out only increases his opportunity.

10U: Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Over 49.5 (-110) – Samuel has a tasty matchup with A.J. Bouye covering him all day.

10U: Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Over 64.5 (-115) –The squeaky wheel gets the grease, so they say. If the Vikings can’t turn up the passing game against this porous Giants defense, they may never be able to.

10U: Geronimo Allison Receiving Yards Over 45.5 (-115) – Allison hasn’t received a lot of targets this year, but we can expect that to increase with Davante Adams sidelined with a toe injury.

5U: Khalil Mack Over 1.75 Sacks (+375) – The man has publicly said he is on a mission this weekend. All teams plan to specifically stop Mack and it usually doesn’t matter.

About Jordan Gingery

Jordan dreams of a world where kickers and defenses are picked in the last two rounds of fantasy drafts and the Carolina Panthers win the Superbowl every year. As a Fantasy Football Staff Writer at Fantasy Sharks, he is responsible for the weekly Survivor article during the regular season and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). When he is not giving advice and helping people win their fantasy champions, he can be found brewing his own beer... and drinking it!