Sunday - May 19, 2019

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PLAYERS TO DRAFT: Quarterbacks

Even without any injuries, bye weeks put a tremendous amount of pressure on your bench. This has made filling your bench up with potential a prominent strategy in fantasy for … ever. But let’s be honest – any running back/wide receiver in the fifth round has concerns. Whether it’s their skill, health or situation, if they don’t have a concern they are already gone. Honestly even the third- and fourth-round running back/wide receiver crop generally are far from sure things. Everyone else is going to be sitting back waiting for their quarterback taking FLIERS, yes fliers, over proven top quality starters. That’s fine, and this is where we pounce! I have picked three quarterbacks I consistently see on lists, suggesting you wait on a quarterback and get one of these guys, and everything will be hunky dory. I have also grabbed three quarterbacks I absolutely love to grab at their current average draft positions (ADP).

They say wait to grab these guys!

Ben Roethlisberger: Since 2010 he has finished 17th, 13th, 18th, 12th, 5th, 20th and 18th for quarterback total points scored on the year. That is an average finish of 14.7. Last year his ADP was 6.12 for the seventh quarterback off the board. Players two spots up and down from his ADP were Duke Johnson, Emmanuel Sanders, Coby Fleener and Tyler Lockett. For 2017, his ADP is 8.5 for the ninth quarterback off the board. Two up, two down from his ADP this year are DeSean Jackson, Samaje Perine, Randall Cobb and Kyle Rudolph. I am sorry, but I would rather have any of Roethlisberger’s four ADP brothers. He has finished Top 5 once in the last seven years. His next closest was 12th.WHY IS HE THE 9TH quarterback off THE BOARD?

Matthew Stafford: Since 2011 he has finished 5th, 9th, 5th, 15th, 9th and 6th for quarterback total points. This average’s to 8.1. Last year his ADP was 10.11 for the 15th quarterback off the board. These numbers are solid and great finishes for his ADP, but let’s take a look at who else was drafted at this ADP last year – Darren Sproles, Martellus Bennett, Michael Thomas and Tevin Coleman. Even with Stafford outperforming his ADP last year this just happened to be a hot spot with two rookies doing great things. This year Stafford’s ADP has him one spot back at 10.12 and still the 15th quarterback off the board. His two up, two down are Marvin Jones, Rishard Matthews, Jeremy Hill and Mike Wallace. I actually think Stafford can be a great value here and he does not have high potential rookies sitting right in his ADP, but they are still solid low ceiling low floor pieces that look great on bye weeks.

Philip Rivers: Since 2010 he has finished 4th, 9th, 21st, 6th, 11th, 11th and 8th in the quarterback race. This is an average finish of 10th. Last year his ADP was 9.01 and the 11th quarterback taken. Two up and two down from his ADP last year were Willie Snead, T.J. Yeldon, Kevin White and Stefon Diggs. Rivers’ ADP this year is 10.02 for the 13th quarterback. His two up, two down this year are Matt Forte, James White, Zach Ertz and Mike Williams. Rivers has a pretty solid history but in a 12-team league averaging 10th-best is just barely a starter. I could argue you would be better with a flyer here and streaming quarterbacks, with guys like Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco and even Blake Bortles potentially going undrafted and not being far behind Rivers in points scored. I’m not sold; Mike Williams looks like a stud.

Go get these guys!

Aaron Rodgers: Since 2010 he has finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 7th and 1st!  I omitted 2013 because of an injury. This gives him an average finish of 2.6. Last year Rodgers’ ADP was 4.03 and the second quarterback off most boards. His two up, two down last year were Jeremy Maclin, Donte Moncrief, Kelvin Benjamin and DeMarco Murray. Rodgers’ ADP for 2017 is 3.03 and the first quarterback taken. His two up, two down are Doug Baldwin, Lamar Miller, Isaiah Crowell and Keenan Allen.

Drew Brees: Since 2010 he has finished 6th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th and 3rd for an average of 3.2 Last year his ADP was 6.01 for the fifth quarterback. His ADP counter-parts were Larry Fitzgerald, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart and Jordan Matthews. This year his ADP moved up slightly to 4.09 and the third quarterback.  His two up, two down are Spencer Ware, Carlos Hyde, Julian Edelman and Michael Crabtree.

Andrew Luck: Since his rookie year of 2012 Luck has finished 10th, 7th, 1st and 4th with 2015 being injury omitted. That gives him an average finish of 5.5 counting his rookie year. Last year his ADP was 5.10 for the fourth quarterback taken. His two up, two down were Arian Foster, Giovani Bernard, Larry Fitzgerald and Ryan Mathews. This year his ADP is 6.01 which is good enough for fifth among quarterback’s. His two up, two down this year are Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, LeGarrette Blount and Eddie Lacy.

I wanted to talk about all three of these guys together. Yes, I omitted two seasons because they both missed more than half the season that year.  Though Rivers, Roethlisberger and Stafford have had injuries and missed time, they have never missed more than half the season so I felt it was fair to keep those years in. Yes, taking them last year at their ADP made you miss some pretty good players, but there were also huge busts right in their ADP that make the fact you got yourself a Top 5 quarterback a relief! By the time a quarterback gets taken off the board the sure things are gone. Looking at Aaron Rodgers’ ADP brothers the last two years, missing out on Doug Baldwin for a quarterback this year sounds terrible. I bet a lot of people didn’t want to miss out on Kelvin Benjamin last year and we know how that worked out.

If you can secure a Top 5 player in every one of your starting spots you’re going to look fantastic. Get the quarterback you know is going to be there and then and only then throw darts. Last year you could have had Aaron Rodgers and Michael Thomas, or Kelvin Benjamin and Matthew Stafford. It’s a hand-picked example of course, but that doesn’t matter. Flyers are flyers, and outside of the first two rounds any running back or wide receiver is exactly that – a flyer. However the top quarterbacks are exactly that year in and year out – the top quarterbacks. The last point I want to make is that by drafting my stud quarterback, I do not have to roster a second quarterback, which actually allows me to take more flyers. Imagine that.

About Sarah Sedall