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Home / Wagering / STRAIGHT UP MONEY LINE: Stone Cold Lock – Week 2

STRAIGHT UP MONEY LINE: Stone Cold Lock – Week 2

Welcome to Week 2 of STRAIGHT UP MONEY LINESTONE COLD LOCK.  Your weekly column for Survivor pools and Wagering on games against the Money Line.

Week 1 was an up and down week to say the least, but, we nailed the STONE COLD LOCK of the week pick using the Baltimore Ravens and would have done much better overall against the money line if a few things bounced our way. All in all, I finished the week 7-8-1 overall, and down -$220 dollars. Which is definitely not the numbers you would like to see. The Lions and Cardinals tying, helped to sustain some of the losses I took betting on many of the underdog teams from last week. In all reality, last week wasn’t as bad as it appears. It took a heroic effort from Drew Brees on Monday night versus the Texans, and Baker Mayfield’s historically bad 4th quarter meltdown to cause me to go negative. If Baker doesn’t fail miserably and the Saints kicker doesn’t bomb a kick from 58 yards to win it for them, it would have resulted in a positive return on my investment from last week.

Those two games were the difference in making $400 and being down $340.  Normally, I don’t take that many underdogs in a given week, however, Week 1 tends to be a crap shoot sometimes and getting your money in on good teams like Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Houston when they are fairly large underdogs often times pays out well.  For whatever reason this wasn’t the case last week as they all lost. Time to put it to bed and focus on getting back to plus side of life with the great games that are on tap for Week 2. So, let’s not waste any more time and dive right on in shall we?


Thursday Night Football

(0 – 1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+260 ML) at (0 – 1) Carolina Panthers (-320 ML)

The first week of the season was not kind to either of this two teams. QB play from Jameis Winston and Cam Newton was flat out terrible. Cam was sacked 3 times, threw an interception, and forced a fumble on a backwards pass. If you can believe it, Winston was even worse than that. He was also sacked three times while throwing 3 interceptions; two of which were returned for touchdowns. Needless to say, this isn’t the kind of game you want to be risking a lot of money on, even though the Panthers are heavy favorites in this game and are at home which gives them the edge. All of that said, I think both quarterbacks bounce back this week. I’m taking Carolina to win in a close high scoring game.

Bet the favorite.

(Panthers 34 – Buccaneers 30)   


(1 – 0) Seattle Seahawks (+170 ML) at (0 – 1) Pittsburgh Steelers (-200 ML)

If you had Seattle last week to win comfortably against the Bengals like I did you most likely were worried as that game got closer to the end.  However, Seattle did what they needed to do in order to secure victory and that’s all that matters when wagering on the money line. Pittsburgh was an entirely different issue altogether. I picked them to win outright last week in their game against New England and they didn’t even bother to show up it seemed. This week I believe will be different. Seattle is historically average on the road since the arrival of Head Coach Pete Carroll in 2010. During this span, his teams have finished 36 – 36 with one tie. Hardly the stuff of a well-traveled team. Give me Big Ben and JuJu to expose a defense at home that just gave up 400+ passing yards last week to Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Bet the favorite.

(Steelers 31 – Seahawks 24)       


(0 – 0 – 1) Arizona Cardinals (+600 ML) at (1 – 0) Baltimore Ravens (-900 ML)

First year Cardinals QB Kyler Murray really showed his grit last week overcoming an 18 point 4th quarter deficit to the Lions – walking away with the tie.  The Ravens on the other hand made short work of a Miami team that is bound for the number one overall NFL draft pick in 2020. Anytime you see a money line number like this one, it should always give the bettor pause, because these are the games that can absolutely torpedo a gamblers week or even season for that matter. That being said, scared money don’t make money. I love the Ravens this year and you should too against a Cardinals team that can’t protect their QB. I’ve got the Ravens winning this game soundly. Quote the Raven never more!

Bet the favorite.

(Ravens 30 – Cardinals 6)


(1 – 0) Dallas Cowboys (-250 ML) at (0 – 1) Washington Redskins (+210 ML)

I’m actually a bit surprised that the money line on this game is not much higher considering the way Dallas handled the Giants last week.  Not to mention the Redskins showing no signs of life after blowing a 13-point lead at halftime to the Eagles. For all intents and purposes the Cowboys are the far superior team on both sides of the ball. However, these division games sometimes tend to be a toss up in many respects. That’s not going to scare me away from the favored Cowboys here however. Look for Elliott and company to put this game away in the 4th quarter and secure their 2nd win of the year by two touchdowns.

Bet the favorite.

(Cowboys 24 – Redskins 10)        


(1 – 0) Los Angeles Chargers (-145 ML) at (0 – 0 – 1) Detroit Lions (+125 ML)

Detroit was on a roll last week. By the time the 4th quarter had rolled around, they were firmly in control of the game and poised for the win. Then the defense couldn’t stop the Cardinals from scoring touchdowns on three straight possessions causing the game to head into overtime; a place where neither team would score. Locking it into a tie. The Chargers had a similar experience last week as they watched an 11-point halftime lead slip away to the Colts, finding themselves in their own overtime game.  Fortunately for the Chargers, they won the coin toss and marched down the field for a game ending score. On paper the Chargers look like they should be the better team, but, traveling to play games is never easy. The Lions have a bad taste in their mouths after the tie in week 1 and will be looking to avenge it. I like them at home to pull off the close upset at home.

Bet the dog.

(Lions 23 – Chargers 20)


(0 – 1) Jacksonville Jaguars (+375 ML) at (0 – 1) Houston Texans (-500 ML)

Well I swung and missed on both these teams last week; hoping one of them could pull off the upset.  Jacksonville never stood a chance, especially losing starting QB Nick Foles early in the game. Houston was really close though, playing a tough Saints team down to the final kick. I think it’s easy to look at Jacksonville and see that they may never get back to that 2017 form on defense after letting the Chiefs dismantle them last week. With Houston’s high powered offense next in line, they could help prove this theory of mine that Jacksonville’s defense is on the decline. The money line is high on this one, but, the Texans are at home and are already in must win mode since the Titans are the only team with a win in the division. QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins will be too much for the Jags to handle, Texans win this one going away at home.

Bet the favorite.

(Texans 34 – Jaguars 14)


(1 – 0) Buffalo Bills (-125 ML) at (0 – 1) New York Giants (+125 ML)

The Bills have the look of one of those teams you don’t want to have to choose against this season. They’re not going to be world beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but, they’re going to pack a running game and defense when they go on the road and their QB Josh Allen is going to make just enough plays to help them stay in games. They’re truly a gamblers worst nightmare. However, this week I am riding with the Bills due to the fact, that the Giants are just as bad as advertised. I’m not sure that they will be favored in any game this season; even when they eventually make the switch to rookie QB Daniel Jones. The Bills defense is going to have a field day against the hapless Giants. Put up the extra $28 dollars in this one to make the cool hundred. Bills win comfortably in this one.

Bet the favorite.

(Bills 27 – Giants 13)      


(1 – 0) Minnesota Vikings (+140 ML) at (1 – 0) Green Bay Packers (-160 ML)

The first of two showdowns in what I believe are the NFC Norths two best teams this season.  Packers are favored at Lambeau field, but, the Vikings are going to be traveling with a great defense and strong running game. Which if you ask me is the way to take down a top-tier QB on the road. Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes matched up with Falcons’ star receiver Julio Jones on this past Sunday and only allowed him to record one catch against him. This is not good news if your name is Davante Adams. If the Vikings are able to take away the best receiver of the Packers they could make it a long day for QB Aaron Rodgers. This is another case where I favor the underdogs in this one. I’ll take the Vikings on the road to sneak away with a close win and the extra coin.

Bet the dog.

(Eagles 34 – Redskins 13)             


(1 – 0) San Francisco 49ers (+110 ML) at (0 – 1) Cincinnati Bengals (-130 ML)

The Bengals went on the road to a very hostile environment last week and played a very good home team in the Seattle Seahawks all the way till the end. They did so without the services of their best player also – Joe Mixon. Mixon looks like he is at best going to be a game time decision this week, which gives me pause in this game. The 49ers on the other hand played tough defense against a really good offense in the Buccaneers last week – absolutely terrorizing QB Jameis Winston into one of the worst performances of his career. I expect quite a bit more of the same from the 49ers defense this week, but, I’m really concerned about their offense in this one. QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked sloppy against a bad Tampa Bay defense and really didn’t look good most of the preseason. This game is a tossup for me, so I’m taking the home team Bengals in a close one.

Bet the favorite.

(Bengals 21 – 49ers 20)


(1 – 0) New England Patriots (-3000 ML) at (0 – 1) Miami Dolphins (+1200 ML)


Massive line here. Let me go on record as saying that when spreads are out of control like this – it’s for a reason. New England is looking to make another run at a Superbowl this season and the Dolphins are trying as hard as they can to tank this thing. I’m never an advocate of putting up that much money to only make a very small amount in comparison to it, because it only takes something such as an injury to the QB or another high profile player to flip games right on their heads and bettors into a cold shower. However, if there ever was such a thing as a lock, I’m sure this contest would constitute as one. Not much to see here, Patriots win this game big.

Bet the favorite.

(Patriots 45 – Dolphins 10)


(0 – 1) Indianapolis Colts (+150 ML) at (1 – 0) Tennessee Titans (-175 ML)

Well if there was ever such a thing a surprise victory, then the Titans going into the Dawg Pound last week and giving it to the new look Browns was definitely one of them. The Titans played tight defense all game, used the running game effectively, and pressured Browns QB Baker Mayfield into making mistake after mistake in the 4th quarter. The Colts on the other hand, played a good Chargers team tough on the road last week. Much better than most of the country probably thought they would, without the services of recently retired QB Andrew Luck. Another tough divisional game to call here, but, I like the team from Nashville here to pound the run and play hard nosed defense to help their team improve to 2-0.

Bet the favorite.

(Titans 23 – Colts 13)

About Justin Smithey

The common man with uncommon fantasy takes. California raised, Texas approved. Avid reader, golfer, gambler, and father.