Monday - Oct 21, 2019

Home / Wagering / STRAIGHT UP MONEY LINE: Stone Cold Lock – Week 5

STRAIGHT UP MONEY LINE: Stone Cold Lock – Week 5

Welcome to Week 5 of STRAIGHT UP MONEY LINESTONE COLD LOCK.  Your weekly column for Survivor pools and Wagering on games against the Money Line.

Last week, I was let down horribly by the Green Bay Packers as my STONE COLD LOCK – They just couldn’t score inside Philadelphia’s 3 yard line, turning the ball over on an INT with less than 30 seconds left in 4th quarter giving the Eagles the win.

When it came to wagering on the money line however, I took an even bigger hit. As a litany of home favorites got crushed in Week 4, specifically, G.B -240, LAR -475, and Colts -320. It’s good to know when wagering, that hits like this are going to happen from time to time. Keep in mind, that you shouldn’t expect big favorites all to lose on the same week every week you go to bet. Good teams are favorites for a reason. For the most part they tend to stay that way throughout the season.

I finished 7-8 overall in Week 4. Bringing my season long tally to 32 Wins – 1 Tie – 30 Loses. You won’t hear any bragging rights at this moment from me. I’m not going to lie, the Money Line in Week 4 was brutal, I was +$860 and -$1880. Bringing my overall total to -$1,350 on the season. This bump in the road will not stop or detour me from striking big this season. So, let’s not waste any more time and dive right on in to Week 5 shall we?

BYE WEEKS: Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins

Thursday Night Football

(3 – 1) Los Angeles Rams (+105 ML) at (3 – 1) Seattle Seahawks (-125 ML)

Everything tells me to bet the favorite here. Russell Wilson is in full control in Seattle and I love any chance I can get to take the Seahawks at home behind that tremendous crowd. That being said I’m leaning towards the Rams for some reason this week. Yes, I know they just gave up 55 points to Tampa at home not even a week ago, but, I just think that the offense found something in that game with the Bucs. Plus, Cooper Kupp is an American treasure. I’m rolling with the road dogs in this one.

Bet the dog.

(Rams 27 – Seahawks 24)            

 

Early Sunday Games

(0 – 3 – 1) Arizona Cardinals (+170 ML) at (0 – 4) Cincinnati Bengals (-150 ML)

I know that the Bengals are the favorites in this game – but they really shouldn’t be. The 0-4 record should be a huge indicator as to why that is. The Cardinals have better personnel than the Bengals at this moment. Even though both teams struggle at protecting the quarterback. The upside for the Cardinals is that their quarterback can run and escape the pocket. Which is the exact opposite for the Bengals. I’m not really ever in favor of picking a road team in a battle of the worsts, but, here I have no choice. So, Arizona and Kyler Murray it is.

Bet the dog.

(Cardinals 22 – Bengals 13)

 

(3 – 1) Buffalo Bills (+140 ML) at (2 – 2) Tennessee Titans (-160 ML)

I really like what Buffalo is doing on defense right now. They just went toe-to-toe with the big bad bully Patriots on Sunday and almost left with a win. Tennessee on the other hand has looked really impressive in both of their wins this season, and equally bad in their losses. This game is very hard to call because of the uncertain status of Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and the boost that the Titans are about to get with the return of their All-Pro LT Taylor Lewan from the suspension list. With all things being about equal to me here, I’m favoring the home team to squeak out a tough win.

Bet the favorite.

(Titans 20 – Bills 14)       

 

(3 – 1) Chicago Bears (-240 ML) at (2 – 2) Oakland Raiders (+190 ML)

I’m sure when Bears superstar pass rusher Khalil Mack saw this game on the calendar he was quick to circle it. Then he found out that it’s in London. The Raiders made the decision to trade Mack in 2018 in what was seen as the start of a long front office transition the Raiders where embarking on at the time. Don’t tell the Raiders that there in transition mode though, as they proved last week by going to Indianapolis and beating a really good Colts team soundly. Even though that happened, there’s absolutely no way I’m taking the Raiders here over the Bears. That Chicago Defense is treacherous to those unfortunate enough to have to play against it.

Bet the favorite.

(Bears 24 – Raiders 13)

 

(2 – 2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+160 ML) at (3 – 1) New Orleans Saints (-180 ML)

Missing their trigger man Drew Brees the last two weeks has not seemed to phase the Saints in the least bit. Beating two teams with combined records of 6-2 behind the steady play of back-up quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and a defense that held two of the best RBs in the NFL to 87 rushing yards combined on 33 total carries for a lonely 2.6 yards per carry average. Turning to Tampa, they were unbelievable last week against the Rams. Scoring 55 points and watching Jameis Winston mature under the tutelage of Head Coach Bruce Arians in the process. I might be crazy for this one, but, I’m taking the high flying Buccs in this one to pull off the upset.

Bet the dog.

(Buccaneers 30 – Saints 20)         

About Justin Smithey

The common man with uncommon fantasy takes. California raised, Texas approved. Avid reader, golfer, gambler, and father.