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Suprise and Demise: 5 Facts

Looking for (and actually finding) value in a draft is just as essential as avoiding the busts. A majority of players do not even finish the season close to their average draft positions (ADP), and blindly trusting the majority of drafters is a recipe for failure. Some players are surprises and perform better than expected, while others demise and are labeled as busts.

In our first installment of “Surprise and Demise” for 2013, here are five facts about four players that will not finish close to their ADP this season. ADP’s are based on 12-team point per reception (PPR) drafts at MyFantasyLeague.


Surprise:
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina (ADP of 123)

1. Williams is owned in only 68 percent of leagues according to FleaFlicker.

2. Cam Newton will not lead the Panthers in rushing under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula.

3. Williams has a career 4.9 yards per carry average.

4. Jonathan Stewart has missed all of organized team activities and mini camp practices as he tries to recover from double ankle surgery.

5. The Panthers have the fourth-easiest rushing strength of schedule in 2013.


Surprise:
Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona (ADP of 165)

1. Larry Fitzgerald and company are a tremendous upgrade to the receiving corps that Palmer lived with in 2012.

2. Bruce Arians is now the head coach in Arizona.

3. Andrew Luck had the fifth-most pass attempts last year in Arians’ offense.

4. Palmer is one of 12 quarterbacks in NFL history that threw for more than 4,000 yards in a single season without a having a 1,000-yard receiver.

5. In 2012, Palmer was one of eight quarterbacks to throw for more than 4,000 yards, 20 or more touchdown passes, a completion percentage of 65 percent or more and a passer rating of 85 or higher.


Demise:
Tavon Austin, WR, St. Louis (ADP of 77)

1. Sam Bradford has a career completion percentage of 58.3 percent.

2. The Rams have the sixth-most difficult passing strength of schedule in 2013.

3. The Rams have had only two receivers with more than 100 targets in the three years that Bradford has been with the team.

4. Torry Holt was the last Rams receiver to have more than five touchdowns in a season.

5. Austin is a shorter and lighter version of DeSean Jackson who cannot jump as high.


Demise:
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis (ADP of 67)

1. Luck had a completion percentage of 54.1 in 2012.

2. The Colts threw the ball 58.8 percent of the time under Bruce Arians in 2012.

3. Arians is in Arizona and Pep Hamilton is the new offensive coordinator of the Indianapolis Colts with Chuck Pagano as head coach.

4. Hamilton ran the ball 1.25 times for every one pass play in 2011 with Luck as his quarterback at Stanford.

5. The Colts have the ninth-most difficult passing strength of schedule in 2013.

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