The Saints held on at home to defeat the Panthers in a close one. I told you to be cautious with Atlanta last week and if not for the hustle of Roddy White, they would have lost. However, they were able to get the win and that is all that counts. Survive and advance. Check out my entire game-by-game analysis for the Week 5.
Week 1 – New York Giants – WIN
Week 2 – Green Bay Packers – WIN
Week 3 – New England Patriots – WIN
Week 4 – New Orleans Saints – WIN
Some things to consider:
1) Be wary of picking against teams who have not won a game yet.
2) Don’t be so quick to pick road favorites. The home underdogs have thrived this season.
3) Stay away from those divisional games when possible (Week 4 examples: Browns-Bengals, Eagles-Redskins) Even Saints-Panthers and Packers-Lions were close.
On to the games …
Broncos @ Ravens – Denver picked up a big road win in Tennessee last week and Baltimore is a touchdown favorite in this one. I’d stay away.
Jaguars @ Bills – Tough game to call here. Usually I like to lean on the home team in these games, but it’s hard to trust Buffalo.
Chiefs @ Colts – Always have to like the Colts coming home off a loss. However, the Chiefs are 3-0 and you must give them some respect. The Colts have played just one home game in the first four weeks and they’ll relish the opportunity to knock off the only undefeated team in the league. Colts are a potential choice.
Rams @ Lions – If you want to take a chance, you could pick the Lions at home on Sunday. It is not recommended to pick Detroit on the road (ever), but they rarely are favorites in games and I think they’ll pick up their first win against the Rams. There are other options, but if you are feeling risky, Detroit is a candidate. I’m not overlooking St. Louis because they are improved, but I’m playing the law of averages here with Detroit getting win No. 1.
Falcons @ Browns – I never like taking the road teams in these games. The three-point favorite on the road will sometimes blow out their opponent, but there are too many times when they lose outright. I’ll pass and wait for a better matchup for Atlanta.
Buccaneers @ Bengals – Upset alert. I like the Buccaneers to cover the touchdown spread this week against the Bengals, who have not played well this season. Tampa Bay is 2-1 and was embarrassed by Pittsburgh on their home field. They will play a close game with Cincinnati and although they may not pull out the win, I’m not willing to test the waters.
Bears @ Panthers – See the Falcons game. There are even more question marks for the Bears compared to the Falcons, so definitely look elsewhere.
Packers @ Redskins – Here’s a good NFC matchup this weekend where I think the Packers will take down the Redskins in D.C. Washington wanted that big divisional win in Donovan McNabb’s return to Philadelphia. The Redskins will give Green Bay their best, but it won’t be enough. Avoid in survivor.
Giants @ Texans – Stay away from this game. The Giants are too tough to predict right now and Houston will have easier games down the stretch.
Saints @ Cardinals – The Cardinals will be starting Max Hall at quarterback and that looks like a recipe for disaster, but New Orleans has not been playing sharp of late. I’d rather bet on the home team so pass on this one, too.
Chargers @ Raiders – See above. Plus this one is a divisional game. The Chargers are 2-0 at home, outscoring their opponents 79-23. On the road, they are 0-2 and have been outscored 48-34. One of those losses was at Kansas City, a divisional opponent.
Titans @ Cowboys – Tennessee is coming off a loss at home to Denver while Dallas is coming off a bye. Dallas needs this game to pull to 2-2. This is their second home game of the season and it’s hard to see them falling to 0-2 at home. Expect them to put up a lot of yards against Tennessee, which the Giants and Broncos both did to the Titans the last two weeks, and give their fans a win after that ugly home opener against the Bears.
Sunday Night Football
Eagles @ 49ers – The 49ers are still winless and the Eagles are Vick-less. Stay away from this game, especially since it’s in San Francisco. If it were in Philadelphia, I could see taking the Eagles, but still would rather not go against a winless team.
Monday Night Football
Vikings @ Jets – The Brett Favre fun continues. Randy Moss is back in purple. The Jets are basking in the spotlight. This game will be filled with excitement. The Vikings need a win, but the Jets won’t let that happen.
SELECTION: I am going with the
COLTS to rebound at home against the Chiefs. They are so tough to play against in that building, especially coming off a loss and the Chiefs will be overwhelmed (see Giants – Week 2). Kansas City could find running room against Indianapolis, but the passing game is not much of a threat. Peyton Manning will be able to outdo whatever the Kansas City offense puts up.
CAUTION: Cincinnati. Until Carson Palmer figures it out, I can’t trust the Bengals.