I have a few rules, or guidelines really, that I take into account each week when making selections. I am not afraid to select a road team. Road teams win 40 percent of the time – that is about 100 wins per season that you are leaving on the table. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start. I do, however, avoid divisional games at all costs. Now I know what you are thinking – “a team wins a divisional matchup 50 percent of the time. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start.” I disagree. Divisional games are far too unpredictable. Lastly, I am not in the business of saving the strong teams for later in the season. You won’t have a chance to use them if you gamble with a loser early on.
Green Bay (vs. Detroit) – The Packers are undefeated at home and the Lions are winless on the road. I know this is a divisional game, but these two teams are clearly trending in opposite directions.
St. Louis (vs. Chicago) – Despite their Week 3 loss to the Steelers, the Rams have looked extremely strong at home. Their defense ranks in the top 5 and the Bears are one of the worst teams that St. Louis will face this year.
Philadelphia (vs. Miami) – I don’t feel great about this. If you are desperate, the Eagles look like a solid choice because their defense should be the difference on Sunday.
Carolina (@ Tennessee) – Trap game? The Panthers have been impressive over the past two weeks, to say the least. Roughly a third of all selections this week are picking the Panthers.