I have a few rules, or guidelines really, that I take into account each week when making selections. I am not afraid to select a road team. Road teams win 40 percent of the time – that is about 100 wins per season that you are leaving on the table. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start. I do, however, avoid divisional games at all costs. Now I know what you are thinking – “a team wins a divisional matchup 50 percent of the time. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start.” I disagree. Divisional games are far too unpredictable. Lastly, I am not in the business of saving the strong teams for later in the season. You won’t have a chance to use them if you gamble with a loser early on.
Seattle (vs. San Francisco) – Week 11 is tough given all of the divisional matchups and teams on bye. Yes, the Seahawks are the most popular pick this week and they are indeed playing a divisional opponent. The 49ers rank out as the worst team in the NFL through 10 weeks and Seahawks will not let this game slip away.
Carolina (vs. Washington) – While the Panthers keep rolling, the Redskins don’t get the joy of playing the Saints every weekend. The Panthers have the 3rd best defense and a slightly surprising top 10 offense with the cast at wide receiver.
Dallas (@ Miami) – Tony Romo will make his long-awaited return on Sunday to face the Dolphins. Although 2-7, the Cowboys soft division has left the door open for a late season run. Fun but useless stat of the week: Romo is undefeated this year.
New England (vs. Buffalo) – Rex Ryan coached teams have always played well against the Patriots and this is arguably one of the best. The game in Week 1 was very close and the Bills have more of an identity now. The Patriots are a much better pick over the next few weeks.