I have a few rules, or guidelines really, that I take into account each week when making selections. I am not afraid to select a road team. Road teams win 40 percent of the time – that is about 100 wins per season that you are leaving on the table. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start. I do, however, avoid divisional games at all costs. Now I know what you are thinking – “a team wins a divisional matchup 50 percent of the time. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start.” I disagree. Divisional games are far too unpredictable. Lastly, I am not in the business of saving the strong teams for later in the season. You won’t have a chance to use them if you gamble with a loser early on.
Green Bay (vs. Dallas) – Green Bay barely avoided a second straight division loss last week but remains in control of the NFC North. Despite Green Bay’s woes, Dallas is in much worse shape. The offense can not move the ball and even a mediocre Green Bay offense will be enough.
New York Jets (vs. Tennessee) – The Jets are on their way to securing a playoff spot and Tennessee is the easiest matchup of their remaining games. The biggest mismatch this weekend is the Jets’ fourth-ranked defense and Tennessee’s 25th-ranked offense.
Arizona (vs. Minnesota) – There are few teams that can keep up with the Arizona offense. Minnesota is not one of them. While you should expect more from the Minnesota offense than what was produced last week, it won’t be enough. Though, it is a Thursday night game so proceed with some caution.
Washington (at Chicago) – Look for Washington to bounce back after the sloppy and heartbreaking loss last Monday night. The Chicago defense is one of the softest in the league and this is a must-win game for the road team.
Kansas City (vs. San Diego) – Avoid this game or any divisional matchup this week, even though Kansas City is now the most popular pick.