I have a few rules, or guidelines really, that I take into account each week when making selections. I am not afraid to select a road team. Road teams win 40 percent of the time – that is about 100 wins per season that you are leaving on the table. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start. I do, however, avoid divisional games at all costs. Now I know what you are thinking – “a team wins a divisional matchup 50 percent of the time. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start.” I disagree. Divisional games are far too unpredictable. Lastly, I am not in the business of saving the strong teams for later in the season. You won’t have a chance to use them if you gamble with a loser early on.
Jacksonville (vs. Atlanta) – Its pretty impressive that the Falcons have won six games this season. Besides their blatantly struggling defense, the Falcons offense clearly doesn’t have enough fire power to keep up with Blake Bortles and the Jaguars.
New York Jets (@ Dallas) – The Jets offense has been clicking and handled a less than stellar Titans team last week. The Cowboys have a striking resemblance to the Titans on both sides of the ball and this game should be just as lopsided.
New Orleans (vs. Detroit) – The Saints have put up over 25 points in all but one home game this year, with a very impressive 39 points against the second-ranked Panthers defense in Week 13. Calvin Johnsons has a combined four targets over the past two games as well and the Lions have no chance if that continues.
Kansas City (@ Baltimore) – Both of these teams are banged up, but the Chiefs are fully in the driver seat with their playoff hopes. The Chiefs defense is ranked 3rd in the league and will be the difference maker in this matchup on Sunday.
Minnesota (vs. Chicago) – The Vikings have lost three of their last four games and are the second most popular pick this week. Stay away from this divisional game