I have a few rules, or guidelines really, that I take into account each week when making selections. I am not afraid to select a road team. Road teams win 40 percent of the time – that is about 100 wins per season that you are leaving on the table. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start. I do, however, avoid divisional games at all costs. Now I know what you are thinking – “a team wins a divisional matchup 50 percent of the time. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start.” I disagree. Divisional games are far too unpredictable. Lastly, I am not in the business of saving the strong teams for later in the season. You won’t have a chance to use them if you gamble with a loser early on.
St. Louis (vs. Cleveland) – Nick Foles gets to breathe a little this week when Cleveland comes to town as this is the first defense St. Louis is facing that ranks in the bottom half (28th to be exact). Josh McCown fell back to earth last week and this week will not be much different.
Arizona (vs. Baltimore) – Arizona is the only team to be ranked in the top 5 for both offense and defense through the first six weeks of the season. Baltimore isn’t playing for much at this point, and the defense is unlikely to stop a team that is averaging just under 34 points per game.
Carolina (vs. Philadelphia) – Philadelphia is just bad and have been bad all year. The key differentiator in this game is Carolina’s top-5 defense against the subpar Philadelphia offense.
Buffalo (vs. Jacksonville, in London) – Buffalo is the better team, especially with Tyrod Taylor returning. The London games have a history of being wonky so not much will surprise me this Sunday.
Pittsburgh (at Kansas City) – Landry Jones looked pretty good once he stepped in for Michael Vick last week. Kansas City’s defense is nothing special, but there is something to be said for a quarterback that is making his first NFL start in Arrowhead Stadium. Proceed with caution.