I have a few rules, or guidelines really, that I take into account each week when making selections. I am not afraid to select a road team. Road teams win 40 percent of the time – that is about 100 wins per season that you are leaving on the table. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start. I do, however, avoid divisional games at all costs. Now I know what you are thinking – “a team wins a divisional matchup 50 percent of the time. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start.” I disagree. Divisional games are far too unpredictable. Lastly, I am not in the business of saving the strong teams for later in the season. You won’t have a chance to use them if you gamble with a loser early on.
Seattle (@ Dallas) – The Seahawks appear to have found their groove. Dez Bryant may return this week for the Cowboys, but Tony Romo will definitely not. The Seahawks top-10 defense and top-15 offense slots them right outside the top-5 overall, while the Cowboys are on the opposite side of the spectrum.
Arizona (@ Cleveland) – Only the Patriots are ranked higher than the Cardinals in overall team efficiency which is backed by a top-5 offense and defense. Josh McCown has looked OK at times, but not good enough to pull out a win against lesser teams.
Atlanta (vs. Tampa Bay) – The less than impressive Falcons barely squeaked out a victory last week against the slightly more unimpressive Titans team. The Falcons are 6-1 given their easy schedule, and while the Buccaneers are nothing special, this game is far from a lock.
St. Louis (vs. San Fransisco) – The Rams are by far the most popular pick this week with 39% (that’s crazy!). Save them for future weeks and hope this pick knocks out a majority of your remaining pool. Oh yeah – divisional game.