I have a few rules, or guidelines really, that I take into account each week when making selections. I am not afraid to select a road team. Road teams win 40 percent of the time – that is about 100 wins per season that you are leaving on the table. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start. I do, however, avoid divisional games at all costs. Now I know what you are thinking – “a team wins a divisional matchup 50 percent of the time. Eliminating them as a selection puts you at a disadvantage from the start.” I disagree. Divisional games are far too unpredictable. Lastly, I am not in the business of saving the strong teams for later in the season. You won’t have a chance to use them if you gamble with a loser early on.
New England (vs. Washington) – New England is unstoppable this year. The top-ranked offense coupled with the 10th-best defense. This is your last chance to use New England as your pick until Week 14!
New York Jets (vs. Jacksonville) – Look for the Jets to bounce back this week at home, regardless of who is playing under center. Believe it or not, the Jets are ranked fifth for overall efficiency and are still sporting a top-5 defense.
Cincinnati (vs. Cleveland) – It looks like we will be getting a fresh dose of Johnny Manziel! Andy Dalton struggled last week against a solid Pittsburgh defense, and while this matchup is much softer, strange things can happen on Thursday night for a divisional game.
Denver (at Indianapolis) – Peyton Manning’s homecoming couldn’t have come at a better time for Denver. Andrew Luck is clearly not himself and he will struggle even more with his broken ribs and putrid offensive line despite now being reported as fully healthy. Denver currently has the top-ranked defense.
Atlanta (at San Francisco) – Atlanta is an average team traveling all the way to the West coast. San Francisco is much worse, but there is absolutely no reason to pick Atlanta this week given all of the other options.