Friday - Apr 19, 2019

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The Betbot’s Receiver Confidence Index

Initially built by NASA to set lines for the Las Vegas casinos in the late 50 ’ s (who do you think funded the Apollo missions? The government? It was the mob), The Sin City Betbot 6000 calculated lines for over 30 years. The Betbot was given various upgrades through the years, not always with the best equipment, but he was very good at setting lines, and living the good life.

 

The Betbot was de-commissioned in 1990 after San Francisco destroyed Denver in the Super Bowl. The 45 point spread simply fried a number of the Betbot ’ s wires and he retired. The Betbot was discovered by Fantasysharks.com and retooled to give fantasy advice. He lives now to help your team with deeper sleepers to start each week.

 

The Betbot’s column is transcribed each week by Tom Walls, because, “ Typing is a dame’s BZZZT job. ”

Below is this week’s Confidence Index. If you want this in Excel format, contact Tom Walls at

soylent_red@hotmail.com

 

People say to me:

 

BetBot, how do you do it? How do you pick such great fantasy deeper sleepers?

BetBot, how can you consistently find those hidden gems?

BetBot, can you help me find deeper sleepers?

BetBot, can you blow on these dice so I can make the point?

 

Well, I can’t blow on dice, because I don’t breathe. And I can’t fully explain my internally programmed heuristics and algorithms for predicting a player’s success, nor would I want to… but I can give you some… BZT… help.

 

The main factors I look at when trying to find those hidden gems at receiving positions is the confidence a QB has in his receiver. Now, I’m not in the locker room, or in the players’ meetings, so I don’t know what’s being said – but we all have access to statistics.  I will share with you each week my tailor made Confidence Index. This index, I believe, gives… BZZT… a simple, easy to understand view of factors a team or QB makes when determining who should get the ball.

 

Straight up, here is the calculation for the unweighted Confidence Index:

 

(Rc/Tg) + 1.3*(Pos/Tg)

Where

Rc = Year to Date Receptions by the Receiver

Tg = Year to Date Targets at the Receiver

Pos = Year to Date Positive plays by the receiver – positive plays are first downs and touchdowns

 

Basically, this boils down the confidence a QB has that once he throws the ball, the receiver will:

 

A) Catch it

B) Make something positive happen after the catch (first down or touchdown)

 

I give 30% more weight to a receiver catching the ball for a first down or TD than I do for a simple reception, and I give the same weight to a touchdown. This is because I view touchdowns by receivers as plays where some fluky things happen (more so than a RB, say).  I don’t want to overweight TDs, but it is important to capture.  Also, you guys already bleeping… BZT… know about receivers with a lot of TDs.  We’re talking DEEPER sleepers here, capiche?

 

Why is this an important metric for finding fantasy players who can surprise?  Because NFL coaches are looking at this kind of data, too – maybe not in statistical form like I’ve done here, but they’re noticing which receivers on their team are making the most of their chances.  You can be sure that a player who stands out as a first down machine will get more passes thrown their way in the coming weeks – and as every smart fantasy player knows, opportunity is 80% of performance.  You have to get the ball to score points.

NAME

POS

TARG

REC

RECYD

POS PL

Confidence
Index

CI * Recpts

CI * Yards

Ben
Watson

TE

20

18

222

17

2.005

36.09

445.11

Maurice Stovall

WR

6

6

51

4

1.867

11.20

95.20

Troy Walters

WR

6

5

62

4

1.700

8.50

105.40

Heath Miller

TE

31

24

333

22

1.697

40.72

565.03

Antonio Gates

TE

57

46

639

38

1.674

76.99

1069.48

Santonio Holmes

WR

37

26

426

27

1.651

42.94

703.48

Tony Scheffler

TE

14

10

115

10

1.643

16.43

188.93

Randy Moss

WR

65

47

779

45

1.623

76.28

1264.38

Ben Utecht

TE

12

10

119

7

1.592

15.92

189.41

Casey Fitzsimmons

TE

5

4

36

3

1.580

6.32

56.88

Glenn Martinez

WR

11

8

99

7

1.555

12.44

153.90

Reggie Williams

WR

17

12

119

11

1.547

18.56

184.10

Wes Welker

WR

72

56

613

41

1.518

85.01

930.57

Brandon Stokley

WR

34

22

319

22

1.488

32.74

474.75

John Madsen

TE

6

5

71

3

1.483

7.42

105.32

Andre Johnson

WR

20

14

262

12

1.480

20.72

387.76

Glenn Holt

WR

17

12

124

10

1.471

17.65

182.35

David Anderson

WR

17

12

131

10

1.471

17.65

192.65

Martrez Milner

TE

6

6

40

2

1.433

8.60

57.33

Donald Lee

TE

32

25

304

16

1.431

35.78

435.10

Chris Baker

TE

20

13

135

12

1.430

18.59

193.05

Shaun McDonald

WR

45

33

368

24

1.427

47.08

525.01

Sean McHugh

TE

12

8

109

7

1.425

11.40

155.33

Dwayne Bowe

WR

46

29

499

28

1.422

41.23

709.45

Braylon Edwards

WR

62

37

669

39

1.415

52.34

946.31

Ernest Wilford

WR

21

14

145

12

1.410

19.73

204.38

Marcus Pollard

TE

15

12

123

7

1.407

16.88

173.02

Brent Celek

TE

8

6

53

4

1.400

8.40

74.20

Reggie Wayne

WR

65

44

668

36

1.397

61.46

933.14

Roscoe Parrish

WR

27

22

199

12

1.393

30.64

277.13

Greg Estandia

TE

9

6

113

5

1.389

8.33

156.94

Ruvell Martin

WR

10

6

102

6

1.380

8.28

140.76

Owen Daniels

TE

49

35

427

25

1.378

48.21

588.21

Chad Johnson

WR

73

44

731

43

1.368

60.21

1000.37

Donte Stallworth

WR

38

26

411

20

1.368

35.58

562.42

Roddy White

WR

46

33

530

23

1.367

45.12

724.72

Greg Olsen

TE

30

21

255

15

1.350

28.35

344.25

David Martin

TE

20

15

111

9

1.335

20.03

148.19

Antwaan Randle El

WR

39

26

465

20

1.333

34.67

620.00

Bobby Engram

WR

50

34

468

25

1.330

45.22

622.44

Jason Witten

TE

62

42

540

31

1.327

55.75

716.81

Ike Hilliard

WR

55

39

478

26

1.324

51.62

632.70

Dominique Byrd

TE

5

4

44

2

1.320

5.28

58.08

Josh Reed

WR

27

20

228

12

1.319

26.37

300.62

Jerheme Urban

WR

18

12

164

9

1.317

15.80

215.93

Bryan Fletcher

TE

6

4

58

3

1.317

5.27

76.37

Jason Avant

WR

19

12

145

10

1.316

15.79

190.79

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

WR

88

58

631

44

1.309

75.93

826.04

Justin Peelle

TE

24

17

149

11

1.304

22.17

194.32

Justin Gage

WR

25

17

200

12

1.304

22.17

260.80

Patrick Crayton

WR

43

26

400

23

1.300

33.80

520.00

Jacoby Jones

WR

17

13

121

7

1.300

16.90

157.30

Torry Holt

WR

73

46

576

37

1.289

59.30

742.49

Tony Gonzalez

TE

62

42

506

29

1.285

53.99

650.45

Ronald Curry

WR

48

29

386

25

1.281

37.16

494.56

Calvin Johnson

WR

28

15

273

16

1.279

19.18

349.05

Will Heller

TE

9

5

30

5

1.278

6.39

38.33

Roydell Williams

WR

34

20

299

18

1.276

25.53

381.66

Joe Jurevicius

WR

33

20

236

17

1.276

25.52

301.08

Anquan Boldin

WR

45

30

315

21

1.273

38.20

401.10

Michael Gaines

TE

13

10

63

5

1.269

12.69

79.96

Dallas Clark

TE

53

32

388

27

1.266

40.51

491.22

Marques Colston

WR

55

34

347

27

1.256

42.72

435.96

Michael Clayton

WR

11

6

109

6

1.255

7.53

136.75

Devin Hester

WR

11

6

144

6

1.255

7.53

180.65

Derek Hagan

WR

21

12

155

11

1.252

15.03

194.12

Drew Carter

WR

21

12

128

11

1.252

15.03

160.30

Jerricho Cotchery

WR

67

46

591

29

1.249

57.47

738.31

Plaxico Burress

WR

65

37

564

34

1.249

46.22

704.57

Hines Ward

WR

39

24

274

19

1.249

29.97

342.15

Jabar Gaffney

WR

18

12

98

8

1.244

14.93

121.96

Kevin Curtis

WR

55

32

582

28

1.244

39.80

723.80

Terrell Owens

WR

63

34

556

34

1.241

42.20

690.15

Kyle Brady

TE

12

7

57

6

1.233

8.63

70.30

Mike Furrey

WR

38

26

328

16

1.232

32.02

403.96

Alex Smith

TE

22

14

133

10

1.227

17.18

163.23

Chris Cooley

TE

40

23

219

20

1.225

28.18

268.28

Anthony Gonzalez

WR

20

14

194

8

1.220

17.08

236.68

Anthony Fasano

TE

10

7

71

4

1.220

8.54

86.62

Daniel Graham

TE

16

13

107

5

1.219

15.84

130.41

Michael Jenkins

WR

39

24

262

18

1.215

29.17

318.43

Kevin Walter

WR

62

40

512

27

1.211

48.45

620.18

Derrick Mason

WR

81

56

529

32

1.205

67.48

637.41

Lance Moore

WR

26

17

187

11

1.204

20.47

225.12

Leonard Pope

TE

14

9

95

6

1.200

10.80

114.00

Kellen Winslow Jr

TE

54

31

532

26

1.200

37.20

638.40

Eric Johnson

TE

38

30

223

12

1.200

36.00

267.60

Todd Heap

TE

29

19

201

12

1.193

22.67

239.81

Laveranues Coles

WR

69

42

473

31

1.193

50.10

564.17

Jerramy Stevens

TE

10

8

78

3

1.190

9.52

92.82

Alge Crumpler

TE

28

19

203

11

1.189

22.60

241.43

Roy Williams

WR

59

40

526

23

1.185

47.39

623.18

Quinn Sypniewski

TE

24

18

123

8

1.183

21.30

145.55

Amani Toomer

WR

50

30

355

22

1.172

35.16

416.06

Brandon Jones

WR

20

13

172

8

1.170

15.21

201.24

Greg Jennings

WR

36

20

369

17

1.169

23.39

431.53

Bernard Berrian

WR

67

38

518

31

1.169

44.41

605.36

Jeremy Shockey

TE

51

31

358

22

1.169

36.23

418.37

Visanthe Shiancoe

TE

22

14

157

9

1.168

16.35

183.40

Vernon Davis

TE

30

18

176

13

1.163

20.94

204.75

Jeff King

TE

42

28

271

16

1.162

32.53

314.88

Marvin Harrison

WR

32

20

247

13

1.153

23.06

284.82

Deion Branch

WR

36

22

343

15

1.153

25.36

395.40

Bryan Gilmore

WR

10

5

85

5

1.150

5.75

97.75

Brandon Marshall

WR

63

36

513

28

1.149

41.37

589.54

Joey Galloway

WR

55

33

564

23

1.144

37.74

645.01

Vincent Jackson

WR

36

20

320

16

1.133

22.67

362.67

Donald Driver

WR

61

39

440

23

1.130

44.05

496.98

David Patten

WR

35

20

340

15

1.129

22.57

383.71

Eric Moulds

WR

26

15

122

11

1.127

16.90

137.48

Desmond Clark

TE

41

28

322

14

1.127

31.55

362.84

Anthony Mix

WR

5

3

39

2

1.120

3.36

43.68

Greg Lewis

WR

5

3

65

2

1.120

3.36

72.80

Dane Looker

WR

5

3

19

2

1.120

3.36

21.28

Sean Ryan

TE

5

3

46

2

1.120

3.36

51.52

Dan Coats

TE

5

3

23

2

1.120

3.36

25.76

James Jones

WR

43

26

400

17

1.119

29.08

447.44

Steve Smith

WR

61

37

514

24

1.118

41.37

574.67

Larry Fitzgerald

WR

77

47

645

30

1.117

52.49

720.39

Terrance Copper

WR

8

5

39

3

1.113

5.56

43.39

Ben Hartsock

TE

8

5

37

3

1.113

5.56

41.16

Samie Parker

WR

19

12

131

7

1.111

13.33

145.48

George Wrighster

TE

9

6

38

3

1.100

6.60

41.80

Dennis Northcutt

WR

39

22

308

16

1.097

24.14

338.01

Sidney Rice

WR

26

14

146

11

1.088

15.24

158.92

Todd Yoder

TE

7

5

46

2

1.086

5.43

49.94

Bo Scaife

TE

31

18

161

12

1.084

19.51

174.50

Brad Smith

WR

25

14

169

10

1.080

15.12

182.52

Javon Walker

WR

30

19

230

10

1.067

20.27

245.33

Sam Hurd

WR

13

6

120

6

1.062

6.37

127.38

Tim Carter

WR

13

6

100

6

1.062

6.37

106.15

Skyler Green

WR

5

4

40

1

1.060

4.24

42.40

Matt Schobel

TE

14

7

69

6

1.057

7.40

72.94

Bryant Johnson

WR

35

20

226

13

1.054

21.09

238.27

Marques Hagans

WR

15

8

101

6

1.053

8.43

106.39

Peerless Price

WR

13

7

68

5

1.038

7.27

70.62

Isaac Bruce

WR

40

23

325

14

1.030

23.69

334.75

Zach Miller

TE

27

16

138

9

1.026

16.41

141.58

Reggie Kelly

TE

14

9

116

4

1.014

9.13

117.66

Robert Royal

TE

16

11

102

4

1.013

11.14

103.28

Andre Davis

WR

39

21

390

14

1.005

21.11

392.00

Marcedes Lewis

TE

25

16

174

7

1.004

16.06

174.70

Jeb Putzier

TE

10

6

39

3

0.990

5.94

38.61

Randy McMichael

TE

38

19

248

14

0.979

18.60

242.78

Cedrick Wilson

WR

14

7

93

5

0.964

6.75

89.68

Devery Henderson

WR

25

11

206

10

0.960

10.56

197.76

Reggie Brown

WR

48

25

319

16

0.954

23.85

304.38

Hank Baskett

WR

8

5

55

2

0.950

4.75

52.25

Billy Miller

TE

8

5

50

2

0.950

4.75

47.50

Ted Ginn

WR

17

7

141

7

0.947

6.63

133.54

Steve Smith

WR

7

4

26

2

0.943

3.77

24.51

Mark Clayton

WR

33

18

153

10

0.939

16.91

143.73

Malcom Floyd

WR

13

7

97

4

0.938

6.57

91.03

Darrell Jackson

WR

39

18

216

14

0.928

16.71

200.49

Bobby Wade

WR

43

23

279

13

0.928

21.34

258.89

Demetrius Williams

WR

42

19

285

15

0.917

17.42

261.25

Marty Booker

WR

53

26

305

17

0.908

23.60

276.80

Rashied Davis

WR

19

12

81

4

0.905

10.86

73.33

Nate Burleson

WR

47

20

248

17

0.896

17.91

222.14

Lee Evans

WR

45

22

349

14

0.893

19.65

311.77

Jeff Webb

WR

23

14

159

5

0.891

12.48

141.72

Chris Chambers

WR

71

33

450

23

0.886

29.24

398.66

Brandon Manumaleuna

TE

6

4

24

1

0.883

3.53

21.20

Keary Colbert

WR

41

20

240

12

0.868

17.37

208.39

Arnaz Battle

WR

49

24

238

14

0.861

20.67

204.97

Craig Davis

WR

18

9

84

5

0.861

7.75

72.33

Drew Bennett

WR

33

14

157

11

0.858

12.01

134.64

Muhsin Muhammad

WR

45

19

248

15

0.856

16.26

212.18

Bubba Franks

TE

27

14

90

7

0.856

11.98

77.00

Jerry Porter

WR

36

15

277

12

0.850

12.75

235.45

Santana Moss

WR

44

20

248

12

0.809

16.18

200.65

Laurent Robinson

WR

30

15

151

7

0.803

12.05

121.30

Matt Jones

WR

18

9

82

4

0.789

7.10

64.69

Troy Williamson

WR

23

9

159

7

0.787

7.08

125.13

Antonio Chatman

WR

11

6

53

2

0.782

4.69

41.44

Taylor Jacobs

WR

9

3

40

3

0.767

2.30

30.67

Chris Davis

WR

7

4

31

1

0.757

3.03

23.47

Nate Washington

WR

19

9

144

4

0.747

6.73

107.62

Joe Horn

WR

36

14

142

9

0.714

9.99

101.37

Ben Obomanu

WR

20

6

110

6

0.690

4.14

75.90

Sinorice Moss

WR

13

6

46

2

0.662

3.97

30.43

Ben Troupe

TE

5

2

22

1

0.660

1.32

14.52

Kris Wilson

TE

25

11

109

4

0.648

7.13

70.63

L.J. Smith

TE

10

5

34

1

0.630

3.15

21.42

Robert Ferguson

WR

18

6

78

4

0.622

3.73

48.53

Justin McCareins

WR

15

4

49

4

0.613

2.45

30.05

Mike Williams

WR

20

7

90

4

0.610

4.27

54.90

Dante Hall

WR

11

4

27

2

0.600

2.40

16.20

Sean Morey

WR

8

2

23

2

0.575

1.15

13.23

John Broussard

WR

8

2

55

2

0.575

1.15

31.63

Ashley Lelie

WR

14

5

72

2

0.543

2.71

39.09

Steve Heiden

TE

14

6

49

1

0.521

3.13

25.55

Delanie Walker

TE

15

6

30

1

0.487

2.92

14.60

Mark Bradley

WR

7

2

26

1

0.471

0.94

12.26

Tab Perry

WR

5

1

7

1

0.460

0.46

3.22

Michael Matthews

TE

9

3

16

0

0.333

1.00

5.33

James Thrash

WR

10

3

16

0

0.300

0.90

4.80

Brandon Lloyd

WR

8

2

14

0

0.250

0.50

3.50

Jim Kleinsasser

TE

6

1

4

0

0.167

0.17

0.67

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