Tuesday - Jan 22, 2019

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The Judgment: Week 2 Prop Bets

I am going to apply a Sand$ amount to each prop in order to make this a little more interesting. It will also make it a lot easier to track how well I do (or how badly …) each week. I will put 5,000 Sand$ on each season prop and anywhere from 100-500 Sand$ on each weekly prop depending on my conviction level.





Season Prop Bets:




5,000 Sand$ – New York Jets to win under 8.5 games (-180)



Things didn’t go quite as I expected in Week 1 for the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. In fact, it was the exact opposite of what I expected. Are the Jets better than I thought? Maybe. Are the Bills worse than I thought? Definitely. I am still sitting comfortable and cool with this bet despite the Jets starting off 1-0.




5,000 Sand$ –
Jimmy Graham

to record +35 receiving yards over
Rob Gronkowski

(-135)


Graham: 85 receiving yards




Gronkowski: 60 receiving yards



These numbers really mean nothing through Week 1 even though they are in my favor. The one promising takeaway is that Jimmy Graham had 10 targets in Week 1 while Rob Gronkowski only had six.




5,000 Sand$ –
Greg Olsen




over 550.5 receiving yards (-115)






Greg Olsen had six catches and 56 receiving yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not too shabby considering he only had six or more catches in one game last season.




5,000 Sand$ –
BenJarvus Green-Ellis




over 850.5 rushing yards (-115)



Green-Ellis is exactly who I thought he was. Green-Ellis racked up 91 rushing yards in Week 1 and is already more than 10 percent of the way there to tallying at least 851 rushing yards on the season.




Week 2 Player Prop Bets:




300 Sand$ –
Antonio Brown

(Pittsburgh) Total Receptions over 4 (Even) and
Antonio Brown

(Pittsburgh) Total Receiving Yards over 60.5 (-115)



Let’s kick off this week with a parlay! I would have taken Brown over four receptions with Darrelle Revis playing this Sunday. No Revis is a big boost for Brown.




100 Sand$ –
Percy Harvin

(Minnesota) Total Receptions over 5.5 (+110)



Percy Harvin had less than 5.5 receptions in only two of the 11 games that Christian Ponder started (10 games last season and Week 1 of this season). Percy Harvin is the only viable Vikings wide receiver while Jerome Simpson is still suspended.




100 Sand$ –
Michael Vick

(Philadelphia) Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions Thrown over 2.5 (-115)



I wish I could support this with facts. It’s nothing more than a pure gut call. Let’s hope he plays all four quarters this weekend.




300 Sand$ –
Darren McFadden

(Oakland) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards over 115.5 (-115)




The Oakland Raiders proved to the world that Darren McFadden is their main (and only?) offensive weapon. It is possible that McFadden racks up 115 rushing

and

receiving yards against the Miami Dolphins. Denarius Moore returning to the lineup should help the Raiders’ running game and McFadden will be the workhouse again in Week 2.




100 Sand$ –
Steven Jackson

(St. Louis) Total Rushing Yards under 78.5 (-115)




The Rams’ offensive line fell apart in Week 1 and is now riddled with injuries. Chances are that the Washington Redskins will be leading in this game, which could mean less running plays for Jackson.




300 Sand$ –
Jared Cook

(Tennessee) Total Receptions over 3.5 (-120)



Fact: Cook was on the field for more than 60 snaps in Week 1.



Fact: Cook does not stay on the field to block. He runs routes.



400 Sand$ – Denver Broncos total points over 24 (-115)



There are two things in life that you never do. You never tell your wife/girlfriend that she looks fat in a dress and you never bet against Peyton Manning in a primetime game. I expect the Broncos to win this game, and I would be surprised if the Atlanta Falcons scored less than 24 points at home.



Season prop bets: 20,000 Sand$





Week 2 prop bets: 1,600 Sand$





Last week gain/loss: 0 Sand$





Total gain/loss: 0 Sand$

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