Friday - Sep 20, 2019

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The Market

 

I know two weeks ago I said I would have an offering out on a weekly basis, but I felt last week was a little too early for edition #2.

  Quite frankly, I wasn’t even that confident in some of the guys I was considering for buy low, sell high, hold, etc.

  After two weeks of play things start to take form, and after three weeks lots of questions are answered.

  Expect my column to come out on a weekly basis from here on out.

  All that said, onto the market…

 

Drew Brees – buy low

 

Thought I’d start off with arguably the hottest item on the trading block right now.

  This recommendation goes for all Saints, not just the guy under center.

  Their defense over achieved in 2006, they’ve come back down to Earth this season and have played…well, terrible.

  I don’t feel the same way about their offense, they’ve played terrible but it’s not because of a lack of talent.

  I think their game plans have been pretty bad and their execution has been pathetic at times [especially on the OLine], but their talent should not be ignored.

  Starting this week I think you’ll see an increased emphasis on smash mouth, between the tackles football.

  Now, how does that help Drew Brees?

  The defense won’t be expecting a Drew Brees to drop back for a pass every play; this will allow more time for Brees to pick apart the secondary.

  It also helps that Brees isn’t going up against any more cover 2 defenses any time soon, the Saints’ personnel do not seem to match up well with it at all.

 

Jake Delhomme – sell high

 

Delhomme has thrown for 3 TDs in each of his first two games, a feat he has only managed to accomplish four times over the 34 preceding games.

  Needless to say, this is not something I’d expect to continue.

  You likely drafted him as your QB2 and I’ll bet you could pair Delhomme with a starter at another position for another QB2 [i.e. Jason Campbell, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler] and an upgrade at the position you traded away.

  Expect the Jake-of-old to make several appearances throughout the rest of the season.

  There’s only so many TDs Steve Smith can catch.

 

Larry Johnson – stay away…

 

…for at least one more week.

  His value seems to be at an all time low right now, and it may be.

  However, he is going up against 2006’s #1 rushing defense this week and is setup for an equally as dismal of a performance.

  While he has difficult matchups the following two weeks [

San Diego and

Jacksonville] both of those defenses can be had, same can’t be said for Minny.

  Personally, I will be rolling the dice and waiting until after the San Diego and Jacksonville games to likely make a move for LJ, but feeler’s will begin to be sent out after this weekend.

  If the price tag is low enough, I’ll jump but more than likely I won’t be making any deals for another week or two.

  I wouldn’t be expecting a return to 2005/2006 form by any means in that dismal offense, but weak RB1/solid RB2 numbers?

  Absolutely.

 

Laurence Maroney – get what you can

 

He has had a grand total of 14 touches in the first three quarters in the Pats’ first two games.

  It is becoming apparent he is just another part of Tom Brady’s world.

  He’ll have some good weeks [like, possibly this coming one], but I’m expecting plenty of more disappearing acts.

  They’re not going to win every game by 20+ points and if that’s the case he won’t be given the opportunity to pile on the garbage time yardage that he did the first two weeks.

  This is a full blown RBBC and I’d be worried Maroney may not even be out there most times inside the 5.

  Sell now, before it’s too late.

 

Jamal Lewis – hold or [if you don’t own him] wait a few more weeks

 

J Lew appears to have a nice matchup this week, but the schedule gets brutal in the two weeks that follow [New England and

Baltimore].

  However, the schedule lightens up significantly after that; especially come fantasy playoff time.

  I wouldn’t be expecting any more 200+ yard performances, but RB2 #’s?

  Yes.

  If you currently own J Lew, hold and bench him the next two weeks.

  If you don’t own him, wait until after the murderous row has passed and then try to buy low.

 

Deuce McAllister – buy low

 

See my write up on Brees above for further details.

  This is the week N’Awlans turns the corner and it will start with a greater focus on Deuce Mac.

 

Mark Clayton – buy low…really low

 

He was actually dropped in one of my leagues, must be somebody who doesn’t read the injury report.

  Clayton has been reserved to 3rd down duty as he has recovered from a high ankle sprain and his production has been affected [significantly] because of that.

  This is supposed to come to a close this week as Clayton is healthy and going up against an

Arizona secondary that can be had.

  I expect a bounce back to late 2006 form starting almost immediately.

 

Andre Johnson – buy low

 

I have always had a thing for acquiring injured players, AJ’s situation is one I’d definitely pursue.

  You all will see how important Andre Johnson is to this offense when the Texans struggle against the mighty Colts this weekend.

  There have been mixed reports about the severity of his injury, but I’ll bet he’s back by the first week of October.

  Stashing him away on your bench for a couple of weeks will reap dividends later; not the out-of-this-world stat line you’ve seen from him the last two weeks, but WR1 production.

  I’ve avoided him the last few years because I’ve been waiting for the Texan offense to take the next step.

  With Matt Schaub under center, they’re well on their way.

 

Vernon

Davis – hold/buy low

 

Outside of Gates, Heap, and Winslow the rest of the TE crop is quite similar.

  What’s so special about VD?

  His upside is up there with the top 3, even if he has struggled thus far.

  I’ve read several different places about owners dropping VD and this, quite frankly, baffles me.

  Unless you’re in a smaller league with no bench there’s no reason to cut bait just yet.

  The best is yet to come for this man-beast.

  Mike Nolan will find ways to get him more involved in the offense, I’m not saying he’ll be a top 5 TE come season’s end but, unlike most of the other TE’s available, the potential is definitely there.

  Take the chance, you’ll thank me later.

 

Ben Watson – get what you can

 

I want to identify him as a sell high, but I’m not really sure how much others value this guy; hope your trade partner only looks at his total points accumulated through two weeks [largely produced through two TD catches] before making his decision.

  He has only seen eight targets the first two weeks and two of them just happened to come when Mr. Watson was in the endzone; that’s not going to happen every week.

  Expect plenty of 20 yd performances and TDs that are fewer and far between.

  I’d look to use him in a package deal to upgrade another position.

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