The Market

Welcome all to The Market. For those of you active on FantasySharks my alias is OarChambo [the guy with the “ask me” thread in the trade and waiver forum], for those of you that are not active…well, my name is Mark. Hi.

 

 

This is going to be a weekly offering in 2007 provided here on FantasySharks, I will do my best to get it released each week by Tuesday night so all can use this resource for the current week’s trading activity. The objective of this column will be to offer one man’s opinion on the trade-ability of a small sample of players. The players will vary week-to-week and I will do my best to offer my thoughts on players who are of the most interest to the reading public and of players I have not offered an opinion on before. If a player is mentioned more than once in my series of columns then my opinion on that player’s value has changed; otherwise, I will not duplicate reviews on players. If you would ever like me to include a particular player in my weekly write up please send me a pm, I always have an open ear…er, eye.

 

Anyway, onto the players – we’ll start off with the player who’s name has been passed around the forum boards more than Paris Hilton in a skanky… I mean swanky LA club: Kevin Jones.

 

Kevin Jones

 

Buy Low…dirt cheap low. You may have a few week window in which to purchase him, but once the

Detroit running game proves to be non-existent without KJ his value will slowly rise until he gets back on the field. There will be cases in which one can make an argument not to roster this guy [i.e. very shallow bench a/o nonPPR]. However, in most cases he is more than worth the roster spot and in a PPR he is an essential late round target, this guy could be a stud find for you in your playoff run. You have to think long term with this situation. What are the chances you are going to have to use your RB4? or RB5? Hopefully small, otherwise you shouldn’t worry about making a playoff push; you should start planning for next season’s draft. There isn’t, arguably, a player that can be found after round six in the draft with more upside than this guy; he was a top 5 PPG producer in PPR last season and top 10 in nonPPR. If he’s able to show enough before your league’s trading deadline you will have the ability to trade off one of your top two RBs for a stud [or multiple studs] at other position because you can plug KJ into the starting role at RB with confidence. This will provide you with a huge advantage over your competition as you make a run for the championship. As for being concerned about how KJ will respond once he returns, I wouldn’t be concerned. 

Detroit dealt with a similar injury with Teddy Lehman and learned how NOT to handle it. It appears as though

Detroit has learned their lesson; they’re being extra cautious with KJ. He will not be back until he is ready, and when he is ready he is going to explode in the second half.

 

Jerious

Norwood

 

Sell high. The predraft buzz about this guy has vaulted his ADP from the middle rounds back in May to as high as the end of the 2^nd round in a recent dynasty draft I participated in. He may have gone higher elsewhere, but this is as high as I’ve seen him go. And I don’t get it. I liked this kid for the value I was getting back in May, but now? Absolutely not. Drafting him at his current value would essentially mean I plan to use this guy in my starting lineup more than half the time. Something I would never plan on doing with this guy, especially given what’s happened to…um, *that quarterback*. The NFL viewing public is going to see first hand how much that quarterback meant to

Atlanta’s running backs very quickly this season. Defenses had to assign at least one player [sometimes two] to that QB, which opened up running lanes for the ATL RB to take advantage of. Those lanes aren’t going to be there anymore as defenses are no longer focused on that QB. On top of that,

Norwood is still stuck in a RBBC in which he isn’t even #1 on the depth chart! All this on a team that many believe will have a top 5 pick in 2008 and

Norwood is going before players like Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, and Fred Taylor? Find that guy who values him that high and sell him now before his value begins to tail. Believe me, it will.

 

Clinton Portis

 

Buy low. His value has never been this low and I doubt it will be until long after he eclipses the age of 30. I have witnessed him plummeting to the 4^th and 5^th round on more than a few occasions, this is just criminal. The following is a demonstration of a conversation I have had with more than one person in the last week – 2^nd round? Fine. 3^rd round? Ok. But any further? That’s just wrong. Fact is, when healthy he produces like an RB1. But that’s exactly the counter argument against selecting him, the injury. Fine. But what about his handcuff? LaDell Betts came in last season and produced RB1 #’s as well. Ok, now what am I to do? Simple, draft Portis in the 3^rd or 4^th round then handcuff Betts in the 8^th or 9^th. But Betts would just be wasting a roster spot if Portis never played. Incorrect, if Betts never sees the field then you will have no need for whoever you draft at RB4/5 [if it weren’t Betts] because that means Portis stayed healthy and why would you ever start your RB4 or 5 no matter the matchup when you have a healthy top 10 RB? You’ll be relying on your RB2, RB3, and [hopefully] RB4 to start your other RB position week-to-week, something I’d feel secure doing. Your other position? The

Washington starter, this is one situation you will not have to worry about all year. You have an RB1 you can plug in every week of the season guaranteed. For a 3rd + 8th round price? Absolutely!

 

Maurice Jones-Drew

 

I am writing about this guy now because I do not think I’ll have an opportunity to do so later on in the season. Soon enough everyone will be a believer, this guy has done nothing but tear it up at every level of football he has ever played. All along the way his size has been questioned and every step of the way he has proved the doubters wrong; he is a goal line machine, has an explosive burst through the hole most RBs only dream of having, some of the best vision and decision making I’ve seen, and defender’s can’t ever find him to tackle him because he’s so much shorter than those around him. There isn’t a weakness in this guy’s game [except for his height – if you want to call that a weakness], he is the future at RB in arguably one of the best running attacks in the game, he gets the goal line carries, he catches passes, and he returns kicks [although I suspect Jax will cut this aspect out of his job assignments for this season]. What is there not to like about this guy? I’m tired of hearing that he can’t possibly duplicate last season’s stats simply because he is in a time share, that he’s a fluke; many people forget he barely played at all until into October and still produced top 5 numbers. If he stays healthy he will finish top 10 again this season… probably top 5, he can be purchased at a late 2^nd round value in most leagues – buy now before it is too late.

 

Santana Moss

 

I thought I’d add one non-RB into my first article of the season. After all, there are other positions, right? Anyway, Santana? Remember what he did in 2005? You know he has it in him to produce like a stud. Problem? He suffered through a hammy-plagued 2006 and Mark Brunell finally showed his age; his production was non existent [except for that 3 TD Jax game, an aberration to say the least] last season… until Jason Campbell was handed the starting job. With each passing week last season you could see the offense functioning significantly better with

Campbell under center and those around him responded accordingly, especially Moss. With three out of five start-worthy performances to end last season he began to show the beginning of what could be a beautiful relationship with Mr. Campbell. He can currently be purchased at a low end WR2/high end WR3 price, to have production like that extrapolated over a full season at that position in the draft would be an excellent value. This is on par [and possibly even exceeds] Javon Walker who comes with a price tag that’s about two-three rounds higher than Moss. I think you have a two week window in which to purchase Moss in, if he doesn’t produce big against the Giants questionable secondary week 3 there is still the bye week in which to buy low on him before the friendly matchups start jumping out in every direction. Get him now.

 

Well, that will do it for part I of this series. I encourage feedback, both positive and negative – probably more negative, negative criticism is easier than positive, right? If you’re interested in doing so please start a thread in the Article Discussion forum in the tank; I’ll be keeping a lookout. Hope you all enjoyed, now go to the trade market now!