Let’s get this out of the way – every league is different so this article is going to focus on as standard of a version of a league as possible – rotisserie format, 12 teams, standard 5-by-5 – max innings pitched limit between 1,300 and 1,600, daily roster changes, bench of more than four players. Please adjust as necessary.
Now that’s out of the way, you want to bank on 1,000 innings pitched from your starters. There is going to be at least one bust or injury in the group, but I like to plan on two. That said, I’m also aggressive on waivers, especially early in the season so if I can add a seventh starter I do it. If I fail then I try to carefully stream my way through the season.
Relief pitching is the key to success – you want saves and to help with ratios and your strikeouts per nine innings, but you don’t want to pay for it. Load up on starting bats so you don’t have to use your bench for extra bats. Use that bench space for middle relievers and speculative closers. Ideally, you want three closers going into the season but you can make due with two. The goal is to end up with four closers by May so you can shift your attention to hot middle relievers. It’s OK if you can’t due to injuries or losing waiver claims; you just can’t use as much bench space on middle relief as long as you don’t have 3-4 closers.
How to build this staff? See below. I have broken up each tier with a description on how I’d treat that tier during my draft to build the perfect staff mentioned in the introduction.
Group 1 – I’m not drafting any of these guys because the early rounds are for building your offense. It’s so much harder to chase offense (without stolen bases) than pitching. These guys are phenomenal, but they will be phenomenal on someone else’s team.
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester
CC Sabathia
Clayton Kershaw
Group 2 – I’m getting one of these guys, but probably not one of the first few except for (hopefully) Zach Greinke. I’m looking at the guys listed after Francisco Liriano.
Zach Greinke
Jered Weaver
Justin Verlander
Ubaldo Jimenez
Josh Johnson
Francisco Liriano
Yovani Gallardo
Cole Hamels
Roy Oswalt
Dan Haren
Tommy Hanson
Group 3 – It’s highly unlikely I’m taking any of these guys, as their price is too close to their upside and doesn’t account for their risk.
David Price
Clay Buchholz
Mat Latos
Group 4 – Assuming I have a Group 2 player already on the roster, I need a guy from this group. On the off-chance that I got Kershaw or Lester, a player from this group is not a necessity. It’d be a luxury.
Max Scherzer
Brett Anderson
Chad Billingsley
Chris Carpenter
Matt Cain
Josh Beckett
Group 5 – If I screwed up somewhere, these are my fallback options, but I’d like to ignore everyone in this group though.
Tim Hudson
Ted Lilly
Wandy Rodriguez
Hiroki Kuroda
Ryan Dempster
Ricky Nolasco – the numbers suggest there might be some upside with him, but that’s the case every year.
Group 6 – Don’t let this group end with you having less than four starters on your staff.
Shaun Marcum – his rising price may command Group 4 status, and he’ll justify it.
Phil Hughes
Brandon Morrow
Jonathan Sanchez
Trevor Cahill – don’t let the lack of strikeouts scare you.
Gio Gonzalez
Daniel Hudson – becoming overpriced though.
Edinson Volquez
Jhoulys Chacin
Ian Kennedy
Madison Bumgarner
Johnny Cueto
Jorge De La Rosa
Group 7 – Hopefully I have four arms at this point and I can skip this group.
Edwin Jackson
Colby Lewis
Brett Myers
Ervin Santana
CJ Wilson
Carl Pavano
Jaime Garcia
John Danks
John Lackey
Matt Garza
Bronson Arroyo
Carlos Zambrano
Group 8 – Fliers! Unlike the last group there’s some upside in this group. You’ll want to load up on them, but it depends how deep your bench is and what waivers will look like in-season. You want guys that could blow up, but also can be easily dropped in April if they’re terrible to start. These guys are listed in no particular order because if history is any indication their positioning on my board will change frequently over the next few weeks.
James Shields – numbers suggest upside, but his actual pitching says otherwise. He’s “Nolasco-lite.”
Ricky Romero
Javier Vazquez
Jordan Zimmermann
Jeremy Hellickson – price might be too steep here.
James McDonald
Jair Jurrjens – I love post-injury reclamation projects.
AJ Burnett
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Wade Davis
Bud Norris
Tim Stauffer
Mike Minor
Rick Porcello
Aaron Harang
Justin Masterson
Rich Harden
Derek Holland
Justin Duchsherer
Phil Coke
Group 9 is long, boring and won’t be on your team anyway so if they aren’t listed to this point they aren’t worth looking at until after the season begins. On to closers!
Relief pitching Group 1 – guys that probably won’t be on my team.
Neftali Feliz – he’s a potential exception, as a possible move to the rotation is intriguing.
Carlos Marmol
Joakim Soria
Heath Bell
Brian Wilson
Relief pitching Group 2 – guys who might be cheap enough that I’ll consider and then likely pass on for more hitting.
Jonathan Broxton
Jonathan Papelbon
Jose Valverde
Francisco Rodriguez
Mariano Rivera
Relief pitching Group 3 – these guys scare the hell out of me.
Andrew Bailey
Huston Street
Brad Lidge
Leo Nunez
Frank Francisco
Relief pitching Group 4 – closers that will be on my teams; likely three in a row since I probably won’t have any yet.
JJ Putz
John Axford
Chris Perez
Craig Kimbrel
Drew Storen
Francisco Cordero
Joel Hanrahan
Brandon Lyon
Brandon League
Relief pitching Group 5 – if I don’t have three yet I’ll take a shot on one of these guys and cross my fingers.
Ryan Franklin
Fernando Rodney
Matt Thornton
Kevin Gregg
Kyle Farnsworth – just run.
Middle relief – get as many of these guys as you can until you’ve reached your innings pitched/roster limit, but first you want to put a priority on handcuffs to your risky closers and then stealing handcuffs to risky closers while making sure those handcuffs are worth a damn. The handcuff strategy in this game is a sound one. Just don’t get married to them if/when better options become available. These guys are listed in no particular order.
Aroldis Chapman
Chris Sale
Joe Nathan
Octavio Dotel
David Aardsma
Clay Hensley
Ryan Madson
Jason Motte
Rafael Soriano
Brian Fuentes
Takashi Saito
Hong Chih-Kuo
Daniel Bard
Koji Uehera
Mike Gonzalez
Jonny Venters
Luke Gregerson
Hisanori Takahashi
Joaquin Benoit
Evan Meek
Matt Capps
JP Howell
Juan Cruz
Kenley Jansen
Pat Neshek
Joey Devine
Zach Braddock
Joel Zumaya
Mike Adams
Wilton Lopez
David Hernandez
Jon Rauch
Jason Frasor
Matt Lindstrom