Tuesday - Apr 23, 2019

Home / Uncategorized / The Prognosticator: Week 1

The Prognosticator: Week 1

Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator. May you roll it up and smack your competition’s nose with it.

It’s with great excitement and enthusiasm I begin this 2005 campaign. FantasySharks.com has grown in the off-season and I am sure there are a few of you reading for the first time. Welcome, come on in, it’s nice to have you. For the folks that drop a nice word in the forum about the site or this column, I thank thee. To the folks that have followed me around the fantasy football universe, often times without a forwarding address, I hope our paths cross one day. It’s been fun doing it for you.

My impressions of the draft this year, and draft strategy, refined over the season. My general thoughts were to wrap up a 2nd tier QB fairly early like the 5th or 6th round and back him up quickly with as close to a 2nd tier as you can get. This is a little early for me at QB as I usually am taking the 12th – 15th QB1 in a 12 person draft. RB is deep this year, very deep, but don’t get too crazy, stay the course on RB’s early. Target Owens, Moss or C.Johnson and if you can get one without sacrificing a real good RB, get one. If you miss on one of them, punt and collect WR later.

Because I dislike the depth at QB I don’t mind a Manning or Culpepper early pick in the right scoring system, and with the deep RB’s, you can still assemble a very well rounded team.

We’ll see how things worked out later on in the season. Onto the games!

 


Team

Rushing

Passing

Opp

ARI

Average

Average

NYG

ATL

Hot

Frigid

PHI

BAL

Warm

Cold

IND

BUF

Average

Average

HOU

CAR

Average

Average

NO

CHI

Frigid

Frigid

WAS

CIN

Average

Cold

CLE

CLE

Cold

Average

CIN

DAL

Cold

Average

SD

DEN

Average

Average

MIA

DET

Hot

Average

GB

GB

Cold

Hot

DET

HOU

Average

Frigid

BUF

IND

Average

Hot

BAL

JAX

Warm

Average

SEA

KC

Cold

Hot

NYJ

MIA

Frigid

Average

DEN

MIN

Average

Average

TB

NE

Hot

Hot

OAK

NO

Cold

Warm

CAR

NYG

Average

Frigid

ARI

NYJ

Hot

Cold

KC

OAK

Frigid

Warm

NE

PHI

Average

Average

ATL

PIT

Hot

Warm

TEN

SD

Average

Average

DAL

SEA

Average

Average

JAX

SF

Average

Frigid

STL

STL

Cold

Hot

SF

TB

Average

Warm

MIN

TEN

Frigid

Average

PIT

WAS

Average

Average

CHI

All Times are Eastern


Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots Thursday 9:00pm

While I like Kerry Collins this is a tough assignment with or without Randy Moss. Moss will certainly get his touches and the Raiders will try to emphasize their passing game but the Patriots will have some containment. Repetition will drive up the numbers for both Kerry Collins and Randy Moss but they need Jerry Porter to have huge days in the air. Those days are coming if Porter gets back on the field at 100%.

The Patriots will look smooth against the Raiders very questionable defense. Listen to me now and hear me later, Corey Dillon will be one of the top 3 RB’s when this season is in the books. Although Pre-Season play wasn’t stellar, Tom Brady will look mid-season form and the Patriots win handily.

Prediction: Patriots 33 – Raiders 20


Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins Sunday 1:00pm

I don’t know why, but the Bears have a legitimate shot at being a very good team if they just had a QB. It sure seems like all the other pieces are in place. I bet Mushin Muhammad isn’t too thrilled right now. The place to find a potential steal on draft day is on this team though. While it’s possible both Thomas Jones and Cedric Jones will split time, if one takes root, they will be one of the top RB’s in the league as the Bears are running the ball astonishingly well and will continue to. Taking the chance on either back is a solid draft day strategy as the upside is high, the investment low.

The Redskins befuddle me. Every season I fail to see why they sign the personnel that they do. They often spend a lot of money on a lot of nothing. It’s borderline disturbing. My opinion is that they keep trying, but failing, to build a franchise similar in look to the mid 90’s Dallas Cowboys. The now old “try to get 1 Troy Aikman, 1 Emmit Smith and 1 Michael Irvin” model. They were hoping Clinton Portis could be their Emmitt and Patrick Ramsey their Troy Aikman, then sign a big name WR to make a run at the title. They’ve hit some bumps in the road.

The Redskins D plays well and makes it a long day for the Bears offense. In the end, the Redskins offense is what makes the difference.

Prediction: Redskins 20 – Bears 10


Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday 1:00pm

A decent back and forth game on tap as the Seahawks make a long trip East to take on the Jaguars. No real standout players on the Seahawks this week but a solid team win in a hard fought game.

The Jaguars will run very well against the Seahawks and it does not matter who it is that is running. Not that a lot of people were pinning their hopes on the Jaguars running game but I smell the very early scent of a RBBC.

Prediction: Seahawks 23 – Jaguars 21


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Sunday 1:00pm

What can I say about New Orleans that hasn’t been said? It’s dumbfounding, gut-wrenching and pointless, all at the same time. Good luck to all who have been afflicted.

The Saints will play with a lot of emotion in this one but I just don’t think it’s going to be enough to get them past the Panthers. The Panthers have one of the top defenses in football and the Saints have looked as horrible as a team can look. The Saints will start on a disappointing note as Aaron Brooks gets some decent stats trying to play catch up. Look for Joe Horn to have a good day too.

The Panthers will be boringly vanilla on Sunday. They’ll spread the ball around and the game plan will not benefit (or hurt for that matter) fantasy owners everywhere. I’d be surprised if Stephen Davis makes it back this year.

Prediction: Panthers 33 – Saints 22


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings Sunday 1:00pm

I actually haven’t looked to see who is favored in any of these games but my gut would guess the Vikings. It certainly is going to be a very close game as these games always are. If you’ve learned anything over the years, you’ll know that a Bucs/Vikings game is always a coin flip. Throw out the stats, throw out the records, it’s anyone’s game.

All the focus in this game for Tampa is the RB situation as everyone wants to get a look at Carnell Williams. The Vikings RB situation is also being carefully watched by every rabid fantasy owner in existence and the media will focus on the, “Loss of Randy Moss and what that means for Daunte Culpepper story. The humorous thing is that the Buccaneers are going to open with a surprise and out duel the Vikings in the air. The story in this game will be Brian Griese and Mark Clayton, and not all the names mentioned at the beginning of the broadcast.

Prediction: Buccaneers 23 – Vikings 21


Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Sunday 1:00pm

I think any dork can pick the Bengals. So let’s do that.

Fantasy wise Rudi Johnson will have an above average day and Carson Palmer will open very shaky giving Palmer owners a little shiver.

The Browns will have some success in the air as Trent Dilfer has a number of very good targets. Even he can hit the broad side of a barn at times. The promised run off competition between Reuben Droughns and Willie Green will have to wait another week and by then Lee Suggs may be back. What a fantasy pit of snakes the Browns RB situation is turning out to be. My dark horse is Will Green.

Prediction: Bengals 27 – Browns 17


New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday 1:00pm

The Jets will run all day long on the Chiefs with both Curtis Martin and Derreck Blaylock. The Chiefs will pass a lot as Tony Gonzalez should have favorable match-ups most of the day. Balance of the Chiefs attack wins the game as the Jets offense has trouble converting 3rd downs.

Prediction: Chiefs 34 – Jets 20


Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday 1:00pm

The Titans will try to feature their running game as they would really like to get Chris Brown running but they will hit a wall of Steel. Steve McNair is too savvy a veteran to not make some plays but overall, it’s going to be a tough fight for the Titans on the road.

The Steelers have a gem in RB Willie Parker and he is on top of my list as surprise player of the year. Willie starts his campaign this weekend. Do not be afraid of the Steelers passing game either, as Hines Ward will want to show why he was worth the dough.

Prediction: Steelers 27 – Titans 21


Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills Sunday 1:00pm

Before you read the score, know that I’m picking the Bills in a run away.  Incredulous you say! What complete hog wash! The Bills will throttle the Texans? Have you seen J.P. Losman play? Do you know why J.P. only uses his initials? It’s because he’s been hit so many times he forgot what his real names were. Yeah I know all that, and the Bills will struggle at times, but their Defense may score a couple themselves.

The Texans and David Carr will have a tough time picking up the scheme blitzes of the Bills and it will disrupt the passing game. You always start Domanick Davis and he will help you with his receiving this week.

Willis McGahee will have a lot of TD’s on Sunday but not as many yards, as the Bills D sets up the offense play after play after play.

Prediction: Bills 45 – Texans 17


Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins Sunday 1:00pm

I assume the Broncos are favored in this and in Mile High I’d be taking them too. Statistically, neither team will offer any kind of impressive fantasy numbers for us. The Broncos will be balanced but no one will put in a big day at the office. It will make Tatum Bell owners have a little glimmer of hope.

The Dolphins will have a difficult day on the ground with the Ricky Williams suspension and the lack of any other experienced talent. Look for Sammy Morris to have a surprising decent day for himself. Not good, but decent. Decent enough.

Prediction: Dolphins 24 – Broncos 21


St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers Sunday 4:15pm

The Rams will be interesting to watch early, as I am very curious how they use Marshall Faulk. I think if the Rams were good at this, they’d have some short pass plays in the playbook specifically to take advantage of Faulk’s greatest strength. The dump pass out of the backfield. Look for the Rams to move the ball well in the air as Marc Bulger puts up some decent numbers on the day but the Rams have trouble scoring as they settle for a lot of Jeff Wilkins field goals.

The 49’ers will have trouble in the air but will try to get some semblance of a running game established. It is priority one for them to get a running game. It will be slow going and will take a few weeks, that’s if it gets going at all. No 49’er recommendations this week but they miraculously pull off the upset at home as everyone remembers the great Jerry Rice. This wins for you Mr. Rice, thanks for the memories and thanks for the poundings you gave me week in and week out everytime I played against you. Dang you were good.

Prediction: 49’ers 16 – Rams 15


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Sunday 4:15pm

The Packers didn’t have a stellar preseason but they don’t really have anything to prove preseason. Watch Brett Favre explode onto the 2005 radar. He’s been quietly falling in drafts but there will be weeks where he will play extremely well. This is one of them. Ahman Green gets off to a slow start as everyone has feared. Keep an eye on Javon Walker’s status as he should be the benefactor.

The Lions lose Jeff Garcia and don’t sign a backup QB? Maybe Joey Harrington showed a little something? We won’t find out this week, as the Lions keep it on the ground with Kevin Jones and pound the pack inside and out.

Last minute classic Brett Favre heroics nets this one for the Pack.

Prediction: Packers 23 – Lions 20


Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers Sunday 4:15pm

The Cowboys will get off to a slow start. Drew Bledsoe, for as experienced as he is, will need some time to adjust to Dallas and the change. There are too many guys trying to prove their worth that they’ll be hampering each other’s ability to perform. Make no mistake about it though, Bill Parcells is sitting in the warm seat.

The Chargers will look shaky in their opener, partly because the Cowboys Defense is improved. LaDainian Tomlinson will get his carries and Drew Brees will be throwing the ball to someone but neither checks in with a big day. The young and blossoming Chargers D will take a step forward this year and will help keep the offense in the game.

The Chargers are no slouches and should have gone deep into the playoffs last year if it weren’t for an over anxious kicker. The Cowboys will play fine but the Chargers will be extra fine.

Prediction: Chargers 27 – Cowboys 23


Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants Sunday 4:15pm

This is a tricky game, as both teams have a lot of new faces, which will detract from their familiarity and will make for a shaky start for both. The Cardinals have Kurt Warner and some top notch receivers but it will take some time for Warner to get comfortable and it could take as long as next year. J.J. Arrington is in the house competing with Marcel Shipp for the starting job. I have to believe that Arrington will get a shot at the role full time once he gets his feet wet and Shipp is just an insurance policy. No big numbers from the Cards this week.

The Giants also have some new faces in the coaches box and on the field. The Giants will take a game or three before they develop a real on field strategy that fits the personnel they have. Tiki Barber the only start and even he may be a little shaky. Look for the Giants to try to force the ball into the end zone in the air as they really want to try and score more from the 20 using Eli Manning, rather than trying to get the tough yards. A guy like Plaxico Burress or Amani Toomer may rope in double digits this season if the Giants D plays above their head.

Prediction: Giants 20 – Cardinals 17


Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens Sunday 8:30pm

Now here is the head and shoulders game of the week. The best offense in football against the best defense in football. It’s an all-star cast when these two units are on the field. There will be no surprises in this one. The Colts will throw and throw well and the Ravens will run, and the will run well. When these two teams play it never comes down to the marquee match up to decide the contest. It’s always the Ravens offense against the Colts Defense that decides these games. The Colts are better up the middle on D than the Ravens are in their secondary. Advantage Colts.

Play all your Colts and it’s OK to start Jamal Lewis if he’s not too banged up. Chester Taylor had the best preseason of any fantasy RB period, so the Ravens will not be shy to give him the ball if Lewis is limping. In deep leagues, Taylor should be on your team.

Prediction: Colts 31 – Ravens 28


Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons Monday 9:00pm

A very good Monday Night game and some great smash mouth football will be played. The Eagles are still trying to get past the TO distraction and that will take its toll on this team till that no longer is a news story. The Eagles think they have their running game figured out but I’m not so sure. The Eagles will have a very average day against this tough Atlanta Defense both up top and on the ground. It’s OK to start Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook but don’t expect miracles.

The Falcons were the top rushing team in football last year and they will not let up here. The Falcons will try to control the pace of this game and will be able to with running success. Warrick Dunn will run very well in the opener.

Falcons in a close one.

Prediction: Falcons 21 – Eagles 17

About Fantasy Sharks

FantasySharks.com began in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is, or has been, home to some of the most talented and best known fantasy writers on the planet. Owned and operated by Tony Holm (5 time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Hall-of-Fame nominee,) Tony started writing fantasy content in 1993 for the only three fantasy football web sites in existence at the time.