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The Prognosticator: Week 10

Week 10


Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator.  May it fill your life like a candle waiting for you in the window.  For that’s what we are here, a beacon in a murky sea of pretenders.  We had a decent week picking the games last week but a so-so week with fantasy advice.  We jumped all over Santana Moss last week and boy were we right.  This is what was said here last week, “Santana Moss is looking exceptional and now he has Pennington throwing to him?  Expect Santana Moss to rise the WR chart rapidly over the next couple of weeks.  If he’s available in your league, like he is in a lot of leagues, snatch him up NOW.”

We also announced that the Rams were going to “trounce” the 49’ers!  That game just steams me.  I’m not sure you guys remember this but in preseason I wrote an article about why Tim Rattay is the QB for the 49’ers and that he would excel in the role.  I was furious looking at the “other” fantasy web sites this past week where they slandered the guy.  Do they watch football?  Do they not see the arm?  Do they not see the on field decision making?  Leave Garcia on the bench Erickson, I said it in the preseason and I’m saying it now, Tim Rattay is your man.  But since Erickson has a track record of poor decisions, don’t look for a change at QB.

Somewhere last season I also predicted that the #1 WR for the Cleveland Browns would one day be Andre Davis when he was the #4 and never expected to ever be in that role by the community.  Guess what?  He’s #2 now.  One more to go.

So why all the back slapping Tony?  You’re going to hurt yourself with that rubbery arm of yours.  I think I just need to encourage myself and talk myself into this article this week.  The wagering section just has me depleted and crushed but I haven’t given up hope.  The “system” ALWAYS comes through in the end.  Or at least, up until now it has.  The Jets took the game to overtime but lost it by 3.  I was getting 2.5 points .. of course.  We’re just playing with play money and it’s really just for entertainment purposes (oh what fun)  but I pride myself on what we offer here and when the product stinks, I feel it.  Frustrating that little wagering section but the rest has been fairly solid so we carry on!  Let’s have some fun this week shall we?  Nothing like a good ole’ fashion slander suit to get the blood pumping again.

  

Team

Rush

Pass

Opponent

ARI

97

178

PIT

ATL

120

162

NYG

BAL

126

165

STL

BUF

92

162

DAL

CAR

138

202

TB

CHI

118

182

DET

CIN

106

243

HOU

CLE

134

194

KC

DAL

120

179

BUF

DET

112

158

CHI

GB

143

214

PHI

HOU

116

225

CIN

IND

99

249

JAX

JAX

114

226

IND

KC

112

198

CLE

MIA

87

235

TEN

MIN

115

239

SD

NYG

130

283

ATL

NYJ

141

178

OAK

OAK

126

196

NYJ

PHI

134

196

GB

PIT

101

193

ARI

SD

125

203

MIN

SEA

136

226

WAS

STL

100

264

BAL

TB

111

225

CAR

TEN

93

253

MIA

WAS

102

173

SEA

Red – Great Day

Yellow – Good Day

White – Average Day

Grey – Run Away!!


All times are Eastern

Wagers
Initial Bankroll: $500 Geoffrey Dollars.
Current Bankroll: $265 Geoffrey Dollars
Last Week: Lost $55 on the Jets +2.5.

No mas.  Jets had the best turnover ratio on the league and what do they do?  Turn the ball over more times than a steak on a grill.  I don’t make up wagers as I go along, just blindly follow the “system” I’ve created and have been using for years as it has taken care of me, quite well.  Some weeks, there just isn’t a game to bet and this is one of them.  And no!  It’s not because I’m gun shy.  What was that?  Did you hear that?  No really?  Did you hear that?  AAhh!  Who said that?  Mommy.

This Week: NO BET.


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Sunday 1:00pm

Chris Chandler has pretty much peeked.  Anthony Thomas suddenly looks great and the youngsters like Dez White and David Terrell are catching a lot of short passes to keep the chains moving.  The Bears couldn’t play catch up if playing on ice and they were the only team with skates, but they can play a close game with average opponents.  The Bears live and die now behind the running of Anthony Thomas so expect the ball handed off to him a bazillion times.  

Hallelujah!  Thanks whoever it was that printed this off and put it on Mariucci’s desk for him Friday morning.  I have been jumping up and down like a 4 year old that needs to go to the bathroom for the past three weeks about running the ball.  Hello Mr. Lions, please run the ball if you want to win.  The second you do, you will win, I promise.  My quote?  75% running, whether you are winning or losing.  I didn’t care if you were down by 20, run the stinking ball if you want to win long term.  

Lions ran the ball 33 out of their 54 plays from scrimmage last week for a 61/39 run to pass ratio and the result?  Lions win!  You feeling me?

Prediction: Bears 23 – 20  (Lions -2)


Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins – Sunday 1:00pm

Seattle will come away with much better fantasy numbers in this contest.  It sounds like Koren Robinson will be iffy but is looking better as the week progresses.  Regardless, he won’t be 100% and that will open the floor up for Darrell Jackson to shine.  The problem is, Jackson will draw the tight coverage of Champ Bailey which leaves the Seahawks with no real option but to run the ball.  If the Seahawks had a healthy Koren Robinson, the Redskins would have a tough time with this team.  Look for Shaun Alexander to finish among the top 5 for fantasy RB’s this week as they will be focusing their sights on the running game.  

The Redskins offensively will be poor.  They don’t have an offensive line as they can’t pass protect.  Young Patrick Ramsey has been doing his best impression of a tackle dummy and just getting the snot kicked out of him.  It isn’t pretty.  He peels himself off the turf and heads back to the bench with a new broken bone with each series.  They’re missing a viable RB as all they had last week was their FB who had to finish the game for them.  Dan Snyder has had enough and now there’s talk of Steve Spurrier’s head on a silver platter.  It’s ugly in Washington.  

Which is exactly why they’re going to upset the Seahawks.

Prediction: Redskins 27 – Seahawks 23  (Seahawks -3)


Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday 1:00pm

The Arizona what?  OK, so they’ve won back to back games.  Are the Cardinals a good team?  No.  Marcel Shipp however has had holes that trucks could drive through.  The Cardinal tackles are doing just a phenomenal job and are the reason the Cardinals are winners of their last two.  The running game of the Cardinals does pose a challenge for the Steeler D but the Steelers tend to handle one thing well these days, stopping the run.  That’s about all they do well.  You kind of have to start Marcel Shipp, I know I would, but the match up isn’t a good one for him so I’d temper your enthusiasm.  Anquan Boldin still makes a great pinch WR.  

The Steelers will want to run against the Cardinals but will look at game film from the Cardinals last two games and that will change their minds.  Everyone knows to beat the Cardinals you run the ball right at them, toss a few slants to move the chains and you’re out of the game with a win and no one hurt.  That hasn’t been the case lately as the Cardinals are devoting a lot of coverage up front to protect against the run.  They have to, it’s their only chance as they’re trying to do their best impression of the Panthers and Ravens.

The Steelers will emphasize their passing game a little more than most teams would against the Cards because that is their biggest advantage and the key to them winning the game.  Still though, Cards keep it closer than the lines makers think.

Prediction: Steelers 21 – Cardinals 17  (Steelers -7)


Atlanta Falcons at NY Giants – Sunday 1:00pm

*** QB of the Week Award: Kerry Collins ***

It’s pretty automatic now.  The Giants will use this game as a tune up to keep their skills sharp and enjoy the home cooked meals.  Imagine the giggling in the film room when they were looking at tape of the Falcons.  Kittner?  Are you kidding me?  How could so much go so wrong for the Falcons?  I expect Warrick Dunn to have an OK day just because of his combined rushing and receiving numbers but the rest?  Boy am I glad I was convinced Peerless Price was going to flop with the Falcons and passed over him in every draft.  Saved me one giant headache this season.  

The Giants will have their way with the Falcons but some troubling looks from the Giants last week for Tiki Barber owners.  Tiki was benched in favor of Dorsey Levens and Levens had some nice work but looked very average in other runs.  I expect Tiki to start this week but Levens may get the goal line carries and if Tiki fumbles, Levens may get even more of the load as the Giants showed they are going to be quick with the hook on Tiki.  Amani Toomer should have a great day working against the Falcons corners. 

Prediction: Giants 24 – Falcons 15  (Giants -10.5)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers – Sunday 1:00pm

What a miserable three quarters for the Bucs until they put it all together in the fourth and took advantage of a tired defense.  They can’t afford those same mistakes this week against a Panthers D who very much want to prove their D is better than the one across the way.  Michael Pittman will have a tough go of it on the ground but will be involved in the passing game as they will be looking for mismatches on Pittman.  The Bucs worked out ex-Falcon RB Jamal Anderson this week and have been trying to lure Ricky Watters out of retirement.  They must be really sour on Thomas Jones.  

Keyshawn Johnson should have a solid game as the Bucs get their air game back in full gear.  Look for Brad Johnson to shake off last week and come out like the Brad Johnson that started this season.  

The Panthers will run and play solid D.  Got that yet?  Stephen Davis who ran like gang busters the last time these two met has been getting treatment on an ankle but everyone is very hush-hush about it.  This could be a smoke screen.  

Prediction: Panthers 23 – Bucs 20  (Bucs -3)


Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday 1:00pm

The Browns win the award for most news stories in the 2003-2004 season.  First it was the big QB controversy in the preseason and now it’s William Green.  If James Jackson plays well, then what?  He has been playing very well in relief this season and I for one think if given the right match up, the guy could explode.  This game will probably get out of hand early but if the Browns can keep this close, Jackson will post a decent day.  The Browns will be energized with Kelly Holcomb back under center and it will show.  The team is capable of making decent plays and with Kevin Johnson’s demotion and Andre Davis’ promotion, I think the Browns are going to have a better weapon on the field at all times which will help their offense.  As you are aware, I’ve been touting the skills of Mr. Andre Davis since last season.  

I think Cleveland can hold the Chiefs in check for much of the game but the Chiefs will pull away on them late.  Look for average to above average numbers from their stars but some nice stat from one of their less mentioned players like Johnnie Morton. 

Prediction: Chiefs 30 – Browns 17  (Chiefs -10)


Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday 1:00pm

It just causes me pain to see Tony Banks play.  I don’t know why, but it hurts.  Real bad sometimes.  Mini RB surprise RB of the century, Domanick Davis tore a pectoral or some such muscle and him playing this weekend doesn’t look good.  Perfect timing as I just dumped Stacey Mack across the board.  I mean, I didn’t need to see any more from Davis to know he’s the man for them this season.  Watch Mack be energized with his second lease at the position, just to taunt me.  I like David Carr in his return to find his receivers and move the chains.  

The Bengals strength is their passing game and pass they will.  The Texans have a tough time stopping the air ball so look for a huge day from Chad Johnson.  The Texans just don’t have a solution for him.  

Prediction: Bengals 33 – Texans 21  (Bengals -5.5)


Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans – Sunday 1:00pm

What a mess in Miami.  It all comes down to the play of the offensive line as they are not opening holes for Ricky Williams nor are they protecting Brian Griese long enough, which is one big reason why Randy McMichael has been so active lately.  If it weren’t for him, the Dolphins would have no options.  The Dolphins are going to have to enlist help with blocking assignments which will bring McMichael back in for a little while, especially against a team like the Titans who get after the QB.  They’ve been losing and it’s time to try something else which means, more pass protection and less guys in the pattern and trying to get Ricky Williams in the open field.

Steve McNair is of course the Titans horse and the offense will flow through him.  As always, he’ll be slinging it all over the field.  Look for the Titans to work their passing game and not their ground game.  

Prediction: Titans 33 – Dolphins 24  (Titans -5)


Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday 1:00pm

Here’s a tip.  The Colts are going to throw the ball and the Jaguars won’t be able to do anything about it.  Reggie Wayne exploded last time and there is no reason to think he won’t again.  The Jaguars need to pick their poison and you don’t double Reggie Wayne to leave Marvin Harrison in single coverage.  That means 55 points instead of 33.  

Look for a solid day from Jimmy Smith as the Jaguars will be forced into throwing down field often.  Even Troy Edwards may get in the action with a long one.  The Jaguars are excited about their new RBBC between Fred Taylor, LaBrandon Toefield and Fu as they had one of their best rushing performances of the season last week by rotating these backs around.  Look for that to continue much to the chagrin of the Fred Taylor owners out there.  Remember all the talk about Taylor being the goal line back this season?  I think we just saw that melt away.

Prediction: Colts 33 – Jaguars 21  (Colts -6)


Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers – Sunday 4:05pm

Michael Bennett looked great in his debut.  The coaches were looking for cutting ability and wanted to see fast cuts before declaring him the man again.  They saw fast cutting and more.  There’s no guarantee he will be the goal line back but all signals are go for Bennett to get at least half the carries this week and probably the full load next.  Look out for Randy Moss in this one.  No one on the Chargers has a prayer of covering him, not even close.  

The Chargers may surprise a little in this one by scoring some points.  I expect them to.  The Vikings secondary has been exposed as a fraud and the Chargers can take advantage of it if David Boston feels like playing and Drew Brees can get out of his straight jacket for the weekend.  Poor guy will be checking into the insane asylum after this season.  I wonder if they can get Ryan Leaf back?  Maybe not.    

Prediction: Vikings 31 – Chargers 24  (Vikings -5.5)


NY Jets at Oakland Raiders – Sunday 4:15pm

Chad Pennington is all this team needs to open up the throttle a bit.  As stated, Santana Moss may have been available in some leagues last week, he’s not anymore.  Look for Curtis Martin to also pick it up a bunch.  If you have someone trying to move him, bite.  

Rick Mirer.  Enough said.  So much talent in Jerry Porter, so much wasted with no QB.  Sigh.  I have never seen a team fall apart so quickly in all my years.  If Al Davis doesn’t tear this team apart and put it back together again he made a mistake.  

Prediction: Jets 24 – Raiders 20  (Jets -3)


Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys – Sunday 4:15pm

*** Low Score of the Week Award ***

Travis Henry will run hard in this one but the Bills offense won’t click enough to get much for him.  Not a fan of any Bills this weekend.  

The Cowboys will have some trouble throwing the ball as Lawyer Milloy meets back up with ex-teammate Terry Glenn and Milloy will be taking pot shots at him.  Look more for Troy Hambrick to rumble to the left side for some gains.

Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Bills 13  (Cowboys -4)


Baltimore Ravens at Saint Louis Rams – Sunday 8:30pm

*** WR of the Week Award: Tory Holt ***

Jamal Lewis tweaked his sprained shoulder again.  That’s worrisome and if you’re a Lewis owner, I’d pick up Chester Taylor as a little insurance policy.  The Ravens have a great defense but one thing they can’t do is stop the Rams every series.  Football is an offensive sport and is geared toward the offense scoring points.  All it will take is a 10 point or greater lead and the Ravens won’t be able to catch up with their weak QB and WR’s.  

Tory Holt has been lights out and there’s no reason to believe that will change.  Look for the Bulger to Holt connection to be alive and well, even against the staunch Ravens.  Marshall Faulk is back at full speed and they’ll utilize him.  Welcome back Marshall.  Faulk with at least one receiving TD this week.

Prediction: Rams 32 – Ravens 20  (Rams -7)


Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers – Monday 9:00pm

*** High Score of the Week Award ***

*** RB of the Week Award: Ahman Green ***

So I stuck my neck out on Correll Buckhalter and considering it was Buckhalter as the RB of the week, we didn’t do that badly.  Buckhalter finished 6th for RB’s in total yardage for the week.  That’s much better than most had him projected.  Look for the Eagles to throw heavy doses of Buckhalter and Staley at the Packers as we start to wonder, do they even have WR’s?  Rookie TE L.J. Smith has been picking up the slack and looking every bit their TE of the future, which is what he was drafted to be.  

Ahman Green is soooo the man in fantasy football these days.  Priest who?  Ahman Green is running away with it.  Look for another week of the Ahman Green show as he schools the Eagles something fierce.  It will be a sight to behold.  What is with Antonio Freeman catching more balls that Donald Driver last week?  Freeman caught 2 to Drivers 1.  In Drivers defense, he did just miss one in the endzone.  Still though, we’ve come to expect more from Brett Favre receivers.  A sign of things to come?  I think so.  That’s not to say the Packers aren’t capable of an offensive explosion but the rules have changed in Green Bay.   

Prediction: Packers 35 – Eagles 27  (Packers -5.5)

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