Wednesday - Jun 19, 2019

Home / Uncategorized / The Prognosticator: Week 11

The Prognosticator: Week 11

Week 11


Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator.  May it sometimes leave you with an affinity for chocolate.  Hey, when you have to come up with a different line each week for 10 years, you see if you can do any better!  Kicked tail all around last week as we made Nostradamus look like a carnival clown.  

Thanks as always for tuning in, checking out this diatribe of random thoughts and cringing at the improper grammar.  I like to think it a style, I like to call it, random grammar.  My editors abhor my inability to use commas where, appropriate.  And my inability to follow the proper rules by improperly starting sentences with and.  capitalization has always Escaped me but in the end, we seem to get something put together in some semblance of order where you the reader seems to enjoy the product.  

I’m glad you’re here, I’m glad I’m here, let’s begin shall we? 

Team

Rush

Pass

Opponent

ARI

116

185

CLE

ATL

139

160

NO

BAL

118

192

MIA

BUF

135

200

HOU

CAR

151

207

WAS

CHI

116

167

STL

CIN

127

215

KC

CLE

111

159

ARI

DAL

106

207

NE

DEN

115

213

SD

DET

103

177

SEA

GB

147

207

TB

HOU

111

177

BUF

IND

111

251

NYJ

JAX

98

247

TEN

KC

114

242

CIN

MIA

86

171

BAL

MIN

137

211

OAK

NE

100

236

DAL

NO

138

246

ATL

NYG

125

221

PHI

NYJ

135

204

IND

OAK

137

228

MIN

PHI

132

144

NYG

PIT

96

189

SF

SD

120

185

DEN

SEA

112

201

DET

SF

122

215

PIT

STL

86

227

CHI

TB

129

261

GB

TEN

100

253

JAX

WAS

96

202

CAR

Red – Play ’em if you got ’em

Yellow – A solid play

White – Average Day

Grey – Run AWAY!!


All times are Eastern

Wagers
Initial Bankroll: $500 Geoffrey Dollars.
Current Bankroll: $265 Geoffrey Dollars.
Last Week: No bet.

There are only two games I’d touch this week and both are taking the underdog.  The first is to take the Ravens for just a little over the Dolphins.  I know they’re starting Wright at QB but I ran some simulations and if Wright can pass for 120 yards on the day while keeping a +/- ratio on the day of 0, the Ravens will win outright.  +/- of 0 means he can turn the ball over but the Ravens D has to match turnover for turnover.  If he turns the ball over more, then he’ll need to throw for some more yards.  Considering we’re getting 6 points, and hopefully that will go higher as the week goes on, we hop on the Ravens.  The other game is to take the Texans and the 7 points to win that one outright.  If one of the other two games that don’t have a line yet pop up, I’ll make an edit here.

This Week: $55/$50 Baltimore +6 (but hopefully more, hold this wager till the end of the week) over Miami.


Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns – Sunday 1:00pm

Statistically I’m looking for a drought in this game.  Marcel Shipp will have a decent game as will William Green but neither team gets their passing game on track.  What else can you say about the play of Anquan Boldin?  I have him in one league but I always start Hines Ward and Amani Toomer over him.  If I played Boldin instead of Toomer all season long, he would have performed better for me, that’s how good a fantasy player he is.  Do not sell him short as he should sweep up rookie of the year honors and the Cardinals may have themselves their receiver of the future.  The Cardinals will of course screw up a free lunch but for now, all looks good for them at WR.  

William Green should play OK in his return to the lineup.  He is coming off some pretty big games.  I have to admit that the cutting of WR Kevin Johnson baffles me.  I’m sure there is more to this story that we haven’t heard yet.  I have never seen a guy go from a teams top WR, to the bench to the street, in two weeks.  Never.  

Note: William Green was suspended after this article was published.  Substitute James Jackson in for Green. 


Prediction: Browns 24 – 17  (Browns -6.5)


Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers – Sunday 1:00pm

*** RB of the Week Award: Stephen Davis ***

Unless Davis can’t go then the award goes to Green Bay RB Ahman Green.

See what I mean about the Redskins?  Everything was stacked against them last week which is why they won.  They’ll keep this one close with the arm of Patrick Ramsey as he will continue to make something out of nothing.  The Panthers have a pretty good pass rush though and the Redskins need to pick that up.  If they don’t, this gets ugly fast.  I wouldn’t be afraid to start Ramsey or Coles but I wouldn’t expect a big day either.

The Panthers are going to run till the cows come home.  The Stephen Davis ailment is still shrouded in mystery so keep a close eye on that story as it develops.  Interesting that when DeShaun Foster was given the rock full time last week, he didn’t deliver.  The Panthers need Davis back.  Either way, they are going to run, run, run, run, run in this one.  Redskins keep it close if Foster gets the start.

Prediction: Panthers 24 – Redskins 23  (Panthers -6)


Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday 1:00pm

This has all the makings of a good old fashioned shoot out.  Neither defense are all that good but both have been opportunistic lately.  The Chiefs are going to utilize their new found stud QB in Trent Green.  There is almost no reason, unless you have Culpepper, Manning and a few others that you leave Green on your bench.  Look for another huge game from him here.  

The Bengals have an offense all of a sudden and they’ll keep this closer than people think with their new found balance.  I don’t think Rudi Johnson is going to see the ball 42 times but he will see it a lot, as will Chad Johnson.  The Bengals defense isn’t good enough to allow them the luxury of running all day against an offense like the Chiefs.  

Prediction: Chiefs 32 – Bengals 31  (Chiefs -6)


Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins – Sunday 1:00pm

Anthony Wright gets the start, or so it was slipped, and Chris Redman takes a seat.  Redman looked bad last week I know but that happens when you’re called to duty unexpectedly.  I’ll bet he didn’t know the game plan as well as he should have, maybe didn’t crack the playbook at all ala Todd Collins in Buffalo a few years back and he’s paying for that now.  Pay he should as he is being paid millions of dollars and the very least he can do is be prepared to help his team win.  Redman is a better QB than he looked last week and if given the week to prepare is the man I want running this offense.  But since I don’t have a vote in this .. Anthony Wright it is.  As I mention in my wagering section above, if Wright can manage 120 yards in the game, that’s 30 yards a quarter, while keeping his turnovers down, the Ravens have a good shot at winning.  Anything over 120 yards increases their odds.  The Dolphins have a tough Run D so expect Jamal Lewis to be slowed a bit.  

The Dolphins are having a tough year and I think we saw enough of Brian Griese to know Jay Fiedler is a better fit for this offense.  Fiedler makes things happen and the Dolphins need some stability at the helm to help them weather the storm.  As soon as Fiedler is ready, look for him to be inserted back into the starting rotation.  The problem for the Dolphins this week?  They’re playing the Ravens D.  That’s not a place you want to be.

Prediction: Ravens 27 – Dolphins 21  (Dolphins -6)


Saint Louis Rams at Chicago Bears – Sunday 1:00pm

The Rams laid a stinker last week and walked away with 33 points?  Is it me, or have the Rams looked bad whenever Marshall Faulk is in and good when he’s not?  Strange ain’t it?  Look for the Bulger to Holt connection to come alive this week and a token TD from Mr. Faulk.  

The Bears are going to play tough at home.  The thing to keep in mind here is that the Rams are built for a cushy environment on a fast track.  Playing the Bears in their house chops the Rams in half.  The field and conditions are very hostile for the Rams game and that will show.  It’s not as bad as the Rams going into Lambeau in December as they wouldn’t have a prayer but if the weather is cold, as it should be, this will be a tough one for the Rams.  Look for the Bears to play with balance.  No heroics but a decent effort that just comes up short.  They have the big home field advantage but the Rams are still the better team.  

Prediction: Rams 28 – Bears 23  (Rams -6)


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – Sunday 1:00pm

And FINALLY Dan Reeves read the progno.  Last week Mariucci finally picked up a copy off the locker room floor and this week, Dan Reeves anonymously gets a copy laid on his desk.  This guy thinks I should start Warrick Dunn because he’s the most explosive player I have and inserting T.J. Duckett was a mistake?  He’s been saying this all season?  Really?  OK, let’s try that.  Dan, you’re welcome.  Now listen up, leave Warrick Dunn as the focal point of your offense and it’s time to get that good TE of yours involved because your WR’s stink.  You have to build upon success and that’s how we build.  Got it?  Big day on tap for the Warrick Dunn led Falcons.

The Saints are going to rock and roll all over the Falcons.  Offense of the week by far.  If you have Deuce McAlister, Aaron Brooks or Joe Horn, they are must starts.  McAlister has rattled off three straight 100 yard games against the Falcons.  No reason to think that will change.  If you’re playing against the Deuce this week, you may want to get that little white flag ready.

Prediction: Saints 32 – Falcons 20  (Saints -8.5)


Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans – Sunday 1:00pm

*** WR of the Week Award: Derek Mason ***

Battle of the skies and we all know that Air McNair wins that contest hands down.  The Titans have a very solid run stop defense but can be had in the air.  The Titans just throw so well there’s almost no reason to do anything else.  Look for Jimmy Smith to have a solid day but temper your Fred Taylor enthusiasm.  

The Titans have started the phase out of Eddie George.  Eddie bro, you’ve always been a favorite of mine and I’ll be sad to see you go.  I drafted you out of college because I believed in your story and have had you on and off over the years.  I’ve had you in years where you were expected to bust and you carried me to championships.  I’ve had you in years where you’ve busted on me but I’ve managed.  I will however forever be in your debt as I’ve always been able to get you for a song and when I have, you’ve piled up double digit touchdowns.  You’ll be missed my friend as I owe much of my fantasy success to you.  Bon Voyage.  

Prediction: Titans 35 – Jaguars 20  (Titans -10)


NY Giants at Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday 1:00pm

The Giants are of course going to get Tiki Barber involved.  Tiki seems to play well against the Eagles.  I expect the Giants to be down more in this game than they’re up and that will put more load on their passing game.  When clicking, they can move the ball well.  With Jeremy Shockey out the Giants are going to have to pick up that void and Ike Hilliard will see a lot more balls thrown his way because of it.  

The Eagles are going to run because that’s what they have.  I like Correll Buckhalter to play well in this.  Watching Duce Staley run last week reminded me of a tub of cheddar, I’m not sure why?  Duce, did you know that through your health insurance you can get discounted memberships to a fitness gym?  You may want to give it a try.  Is it me, or will the Eagles be focusing on defense and WR’s in the draft next year?  

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Giants 17  (Eagles -3.5)


Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills – Sunday 1:00pm

The Texans are capable of playing some good games and against the slumping Bills, this one is for them to take.  WR Andre Johnson has cooled but QB David Carr has been playing efficiently and that is paying dividends for them.  Mighty mite Domanick Davis is nothing short of miraculous.  Combined, the Texans can put a lot of pressure on the Bills defense.    

Travis Henry has run hard for the Bills and that will continue here.  He alone has been the bright spot on a team that isn’t clicking.  Henry makes a nice play this weekend.  The achilles heel for the Bills?  They’re turning the ball over at a 5 to 1 clip right now as Bledsoe and his receivers sometimes look like they were studying different play books.  Perhaps someone should tell them that isn’t the goal?

Prediction: Texans 21 – Bills 20  (Bills -7)


NY Jets at Indianapolis Colts – Sunday 4:05pm

The Colts may not be in the AFC East anymore but the Jets know them very well.  You’re reading a guy that respects what Chad Pennington brings to the field immensely.  He is an enormous difference maker and why I begged you to get Santana Moss when he was cheap.  Hopefully you did.  Look for a surprise from LaMont Jordan in this one, possibly even 100 yards.  

The question with the Colt is of course Marvin Harrison.  If he does’t go, Reggie Wayne is quite competent at filling the #1 WR role.  He is a #1 in waiting and not really a #2.  Peyton Manning can still make everything go with Reggie Wayne as his top fielder.  Don’t be gun shy, if Harrison can’t make it, play Reggie Wayne as the Jets have lost their pass rush due to injuries.

Prediction: Colts 31 – Jets 27  (Colts -6.5)


San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Sunday 4:05pm

I’ve been waiting for an opening to slide Doug Flutie in this season and Drew Brees gave it to me.  Let me be clear, Drew Brees was a sleeper QB of mine as I expected him to take the next step this year.  I’m not convinced he’s done yet but this season has not been kind to him.

Doug Flutie should be in the hall of fame.  He deserves a bust in Canton for no other reason than he, against every odd in the book, is one of the finest competitors I have ever seen play this game.  If that shouldn’t get you in the hall, I don’t know what should.  

The Broncos haven’t looked as good as they started out this season but Jake Plummer should be back in this and that will be a big lift for them.  Look for an average day from the Broncos offense across the board however.

Flutie magic my friends.  Flutie magic.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Broncos 23  (No Line)


Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks – Sunday 4:15pm

There really is no reason I can think of to start a Detroit Lion.  There isn’t anyone worthy of starting except for Shawn Bryson in certain circumstances in deeper leagues.

The Seahawks are expected to rock and roll all over the Lions and you most certainly want to play your usual cast of characters.  The problem is that they’ve been sloppy, Darrell Jackson has dropped a lot of balls and Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t looked as good as some were predicting.  Things are just a little off in Seattle as they haven’t yet clicked on all cylinders so even against the Lions, it won’t be a downhill battle.  Others will hype this as a big game for the Seahawks but I think they’re still going to have their struggles.

Keep in mind Mariucci was an assistant to Holmgren and this will be a match up of two guys who know each other very well.  Mooch will have more tricks up his sleeve than Holmgren as Mariucci has spent more time studying Holmgren than Holmgren has spent studying Mariucci.  

Prediction: Seahawks 24 – Lions 17  (Seahawks -10)


Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday 4:15pm

*** QB of the Week Award: Brad Johnson ***

The Packers have Ahman Green and the Bucs can be run on.  Stephen Davis lit them up and Ahman Green is on fire right now.  Donald Driver was over thrown by just a few inches last week on some big pass plays deep and he got good separation on the defenders.  As long as it’s not raining, Favre will get his licks in this week.

Brad Johnson has been near perfect against the Packers and a lot of that is due to the Packers playing a very non-aggressive style of defense.  They don’t cause very many turnovers, they focus on breaking up the play.  The Bucs offense has the potential to explode in this but even if they don’t, look for Michael Pittman to have a very solid day both on the ground and in the air.

Prediction: Packers 28 – Bucs 27  (Bucs -4)


Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders – Sunday 4:15pm

The Vikings will want to run the ball as much as humanly possible to keep their defense off the field.  As mentioned over the last few weeks, the Vikings D has been exposed and there’s no correcting it now.  The Vikings are going to start their losing skid but against the Raiders?  That seems a little far fetched with the offense that the Vikings can put on the field.  I just don’t see the Raiders matching them score for score.  

You guys know the drill by now but look for a mini surprise from the Raiders this week as they have good stats both on the ground and up top.  Look very closely at your Raiders this week.  Don’t dismiss them out of hand, unless it’s Rick Mirer then sure, go ahead and dismiss that!  Jerry Porter and guys you probably have given up on will surprise you a little.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Raiders 23  (Vikings -4.5)


Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots – Sunday 8:30pm

Bill Parcells vs. Bill Belicheck in New England on national TV?  That’s pretty solid drama and pretty solid football.  It will be hard to miss this game.

The Cowboys will want to throw the ball and Belicheck will try to take that away.  I’ve been harping on Antonio Bryant on and off and it would not surprise me if this is his week.  We are going to see a lot of 3 WR sets employed by the Cowboys to try to spread out the Patriots D.  It’s a tactic that is usually applied with some success against the Pats and the Cowboys have the personnel to do it.  Terry Glenn back in New England?  That’s going to be interesting.  No love loss in New England over that entire situation.   

The Patriots have the better passing game and they have been throwing deep lately.  Look for Deion Branch to have a very solid day as he catches a few long balls with David Patten out.  The Patriots love this guy and will work him into the game plan a lot more.  If he is available in your league, pick him up. 

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Cowboys 20  (Patriots -4)


Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49’ers – Monday 9:00pm

The Steelers will struggle against this tough 49’ers D.  Word to the wise, avoid your Steelers though it is hard to give Hines Ward the bench.  You better have something pretty good to replace him with, even if he is destined for a quiet night.

The 49’ers winning this game comes down to two factors.  The magnificent play of their defense which will keep the Steelers honest and you knew I was going to say it, QB Tim Rattay.  I’ve been harping that Rattay should have the starting job back in preseason and that he would produce if given the chance.  He has a live arm and makes solid decisions and I’ll eat my hat if you’ve read this somewhere else.  Rattay has the potential to be a real player and he’ll prove that last week wasn’t a fluke this Monday night.  

Prediction: 49’ers 27 – Steelers 20  (No Line)


About Fantasy Sharks

FantasySharks.com launched in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is (or has been) home to some of the most talented and respected writers and content creators in fantasy football.