The Prognosticator – Week 13

Fantasy Sharks December 2, 2005

Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator. May ye’ raise a large mug of mead this weekend and toast your fantasy playoff run — for the time is near. Are you ready?

Weekend Fantasy Forecast

Team	Rushing	Passing	Opp
ARI	91	251	SF
ATL	131	184	CAR
BAL	123	199	HOU
BUF	105	186	MIA
CAR	99	190	ATL
CHI	143	140	GB
CIN	104	242	PIT
CLE	112	204	JAX
DAL	110	247	NYG
DEN	154	208	KC
DET	83	229	MIN
GB	92	182	CHI
HOU	103	202	BAL
IND	108	269	TEN
JAX	126	183	CLE
KC	100	241	DEN
MIA	128	200	BUF
MIN	122	174	DET
NE	154	208	NYJ
NO	115	172	TB
NYG	99	193	DAL
NYJ	84	179	NE
OAK	85	218	SD
PHI	112	254	SEA
PIT	110	194	CIN
SD	133	240	OAK
SEA	145	214	PHI
SF	121	164	ARI
STL	114	255	WAS
TB	105	197	NO
TEN	98	221	IND
WAS	127	210	STL

Red – Hot
Yellow – Warm
White – Average
Lt. Blue – Cold
Dk. Blue – Frigid

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Sunday 1:00p

The Bears are for real and gaining respect each and every day. Yes I know it was a ridiculous field goal miss by the Bucs and a costly turnover on their own 2 that handed the game to the Bears but the Bears still earned that win. Thomas Jones has a real shot at doing something big here. The rest? Avoid like the bird flu.

Prediction: Bears 24 – Packers 17

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Sunday 1:00p

Expect the Cowboys to pass well on the Giants since it takes a blind man to not notice the Giants are really good at stopping the run. Drew Bledoe, Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson all make good plays. Parcells will load up his receiving group and find mismatches all day long. Bill Parcells and Tom Coughlin are best buds and this will be an emotionally charged game from the sidelines.

The Cowboys D has been playing well lately and they will challenge the Giants offense. An average day all around for your Giants.

Prediction: Cowboys 31 – Giants 23

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Sunday 1:00p

The Vikings will run Mewelde Moore effectively and he makes a nice play this weekend. The Vikings under Brad Johnson suddenly look like a decent football team and a team that will provide some decent fantasy statistics to close out the season. Take note of Marcus Robinson’s recent play and grab him if you can.

The Lions just canned Steve Mariucci and it will take a few weeks/seasons to rebound from that move. Mooch was a popular coach with the players and as Dre Bly pointed out, they’re not too thrilled with the move. The better move would have been to send Matt Millen packing. All of us in fantasy land can tell you their drafts under Millen have just been dog bone stupid and that is where the blame truly lies.

Look for the Lions to do well in the air with Jeff Garcia to Roy Williams.

Prediction: Vikings 28 – Lions 17

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Sunday 1:00p

Welcome to yet another game in division rivalry weekend. Both these teams play each other closely but the Dolphins have been playing a little above their heads lately and the Bills a little below. The Dolphins will simply be able to run and pass better than the Bills can. The Dolphins running game is the play of the game here. The rest will be very average, including Willis McGahee.

Prediction: Dolphins 21 – Bills 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Sunday 1:00p

You would think that the Buccaneers would roll in this but they still have issues on offense. This is certainly a good spring board game for them and it will help their confidence but do not do something silly like play Chris Simms over Drew Brees just because of the match up. If you need to fill out your lineup it’s OK to look at the Bucs but you won’t see a monster game from any of them. Joey Galloway being the only potential exception though I’m leaning on the side of average even for Mr. Galloway.

The Saints will try to muster a ground game and Antowain Smith may get a couple of yards but nothing that warrants a start on your part.

Prediction: Buccaneers 23 – Saints 17

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers Sunday 1:00p

The Falcons beat you with Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn and some above average to good talent in their defense. It really is as simple as that. The Panthers are a better team than they’ve been playing like recently. Expect a rebound game for the Panthers as they tinker with a few things in their offense and shy away a little from Steve Smith just to try and open up their offense a little more. Even the Panthers have caught on that they have been too predictable lately.

Prediction: Panthers 28 – Falcons 21

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns Sunday 1:00p

Losing Byron Leftwich most certainly is a blow to this team and their long term playoff chances but David Garrard brings a ton of game to the table and introduces a Michael Vick style element where he can scramble and run for lots of yards. It will take a while for the receivers to adjust to this as they need to be more alert and block a lot more than before but it’s quite possible the Jaguars may not skip too many beats. Expect the Jaguars to indoctrinate him slowly however and focus on a steady dose of running the football.

The Browns will do OK. They’ll run OK with Reuben Droughns and they’ll pass OK to a variety of receivers but that’s the problem. They will just be OK. They do have a decent shot at winning the game simply because they bring more balance to the table and they will keep it close. The Jaguars however will bring that steady dose of running that the Browns won’t be able to stop. Slow and steady wins the race.

Prediction: Jaguars 24 – Browns 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday 1:00p

Most people that know anything about football are picking the Steelers in this. The Steelers always trounce the Bengals and they did earlier in the year whipping them 27 – 13 in Cincinnati. This time the Bengals go into Pittsburgh and most people realize it will be an uphill day for the Bengals. The problem is, we’re not “most” people now are we?

Oh this will be a close game and yes, this will be a hard fought, tooth and nail, blood bath type event but the Bengals know to make it to the next level this year, a level they know they can attain, they have to prove it on Sunday.

The difference will be Carson Palmer, to Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh. This time it clicks.

Prediction: Bengals 28 – Steelers 27

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Sunday 1:00p

Yawn. Here’s a tip for you. Play the Colts receiving game, odds are you’ll do well.

By the way, the Titans will have a solid day of passing and Steve McNair makes another solid play this week.

Prediction: Colts 35 – Titans 24

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Sunday 1:00p

I went out on a limb for the Texans last week and took the underdog to beat the Rams outright. At the end of the first quarter it’s Texans 7 – Rams 0. At the half the Texans have moved out to a 24 – 3 lead! Holy beat down! After the third quarter the Texans give one back as they roll into the fourth 24 – 10 with 14 points in the bank. All is looking superb for the grand progno master. Then the final score flashes across the screen.

Rams 33 – Texans 27? What? SAY WHAT?

Ravens, you have my permission, let the dogs out. The only worthy play in this, and a guy not mentioned positively often, is Jamal Lewis.

Prediction: Ravens 23 – Texans 21

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Sunday 4:05p

The Cardinals pass the ball. A lot. The Cardinals may lose every game but in fantasy land, they’re a gold mine. I simply love the Cardinals this year with all those numbers!! Anquan Boldin, welcome back to my team. It’s time to get it done my brother.

The 49’ers on the other hand will surprise with some decent running. Kevan Barlow? Yeah, that’s right, Kevan Barlow makes the box with some decent stats. Barlow would have tossed up 115 yards last week on the ground if it weren’t for a 75 yard TD run that was called back.

Prediction: 49’ers 24 – Cardinals 21

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams Sunday 4:05p

Friggin’ Rams! The word on the street is that the Rams are a cake walk to pass on. Andre Johnson and David Carr burned them last week and that’s not too different from me tossing bombs to FantasySharks staffer Pat Smith.

Here’s the confusing thing though. The Redskins are going to have a tough time passing as the Rams over compensate this week to shut down the Redskins passing game. What this does do is leave a lot of opportunity on the table for Clinton Portis.

Portis will run well but look for the Rams to explode up top and run it up on the Redskins.

Prediction: Rams 30 – Redskins 23

New York Jets at New England Patriots Sunday 4:15p

The Jets flat out stink. If you can’t whip the Saints, you stink, really bad.

The Patriots are in a whole heap of trouble but even they can handle this one pretty easily. It will just take a bunch of running and asking Tom Brady nicely not to lose the game for them.

Prediction: Patriots 28 – Jets 14

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday 4:15p

What’s not to like about the Broncos? Especially their running game. Sure the rest of the league accuses their offensive line of being the dirtiest cut blockers in the league but hey, they win a ton of games on the ground! No real reason to think the Chiefs will be the ones to slow them down. Big day in store for Mike Anderson.

The Chiefs do wield a few weapons of their own especially in Larry Johnson but it’s Tony Gonzalez that will be in for the big one this day. In fact, the Chiefs offense revolves around both these guys and both are capable of putting a team on their back.

Prediction: Broncos 33 – Chiefs 26

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers Sunday 8:30p

All those that think the Raiders have a prayer in this, please raise your hand so I can count you. Perhaps you didn’t hear me? I said raise your hand. Hmmm .. that’s weird.

Let me give you a little dose of what the other Fantasy Football sites are telling you to do. Play LaDainian Tomlinson, uh huh, uh huh, oh yeah, that’s the ticket, can’t touch this advice. On the Raiders side, Kerry Collins makes a solid play but not even le Prognos-ti-cator knows which receiver will be the target.

Prediction: Chargers 32 – Raiders 23

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles Monday 9:00p

A quick check of a competitor and they swear Shaun Alexander is going to punch in with a solid day. You don’t say?

The surprise will be the play of Eagles fill in QB Mike McMahon, as he plays a lot better than last week and engineers a few drives into the end zone.

Prediction: Seahawks 28 – Eagles 23