The Prognosticator – Week 16

As predicted, we weren’t finished with the Joey Harrington audition – for someone else. Harrington by the numbers has actually been a serviceable QB and at times has been solid. The beef, and only beef the Lions have with him is that he’s not winning games. Get this logic, he goes in, has a fine day, the Lions lose the game and they feel it’s time for a change? The story in Detroit just goes from bad to worse. We have been mocking the Lions for their inept drafts for years, the debacle just rolls on. Think about this, the last time the Lions were worth their salt they had Barry Sanders running the football. Here’s a little logic for you, the Lions can’t run or pass, think maybe, just maybe it’s the offensive line that’s to blame? Harrington will be traded/cut and mark my words, he’ll make a good QB for someone who knows how to handle him.

The Saints can run on the Lions and that will be the difference maker for them. Look for Antowain Smith to rumble, but they slide various runners in and out so none make a decent start.

Prediction: Saints 20 – Lions 14

This will be an offensive outpouring. The Chargers running and passing up and down the field on the suspect Chiefs D and the Chiefs doing much of the same. Play ’em if you got ’em but watch the LaDainian Tomlinson injury info. For those toying with sitting Larry Johnson due to the match up on the ground against the Chargers, back away from the ledge, you’re spooking me out.

Prediction: Chargers 31 – Chiefs 30

This turns into a ground war with the Panthers better able to run the ball right down the middle of the Cowboys defense. Advantage Panthers. Stay away from the receivers across the board in this unless it’s Steve Smith. I do not expect Smith to have a big day but he is the offense and the #1 WR in football so you may as well play him.

Prediction: Panthers 21 – Cowboys 17

I really like the Falcons fantasy wise to put up some totals. Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick all should be in your lineup. The Bucs I have been giving a lot of respect to lately and boy did the Patriots show me up last week. I’m sliding my fragile ego back out onto the chopping block for a little more tenderizing. Fantasy wise I’m worried about the Bucs as Chris Simms seems to have taken the wrong turn on the way to his career and Joey Galloway has disappeared as a result. Cadillac Williams should prove to be a serviceable start though not a stat shatterer.

Prediction: Buccaneers 20 – Falcons 18

I really like the Rams passing game in this. In the air, it’s my second best play of the week behind the Bengals. Play what you have in the Rams passing game, you won’t be sorry. The 49’ers are just playing out the string with no real ambition to win.

Prediction: Rams 27 – 49’ers 17

The Bills passing game will actually be quite lively against the Bengals and I expect to see both Eric Moulds and Lee Evans respond with very nice days. The best RB in football will be held down yet again.

On the other side, the Bengals are going to have a monstrous day. Rudi Johnson, Chad Johnson, Carson Palmer, you name it, you’re going to get it. Open up the can of whoop-ass honey, daddy’s coming.

Prediction: Bengals 43 – Bills 17

If there’s one thing the Titans can do, it’s toss the pill. Their passing game is solid and produces fantastic fantasy numbers. Very quietly, Steve McNair is having a heck of a season. Drew Bennett is banged up but if he plays, this is a great opportunity game for him though it would be better for the Titans if they were at home.

The Dolphins bring good balance to the table and have suddenly become dangerous with the combination of Ricky Williams and Chris Chambers. Expect both to hit pay dirt in Week 16.

Prediction: Dolphins 24 – Titans 21

Laugh all you want at the next statement but I’m declaring that the Jaguars and Texans are evenly matched. That’s right, those Houston Texans. The Jaguars are a hair better at special teams, a hair better on offense and a hair better on defense but they don’t match up well against the Texans. The Texans are at home and that is the advantage they need to squeek by the Jaguars. That’s right, Texans win!

Fantasy wise all the usual players make OK starts though the better stats will be the Jaguars passing game.  Jimmy Smith and David Garrard have a shot at solid production.

Prediction: Texans 24 – Jaguars 23

The outcome of this game will rest solely on the shoulders of Eli Manning. If Manning plays like he did the last time they played the Redskins, the Giants won’t be able to play over the adversity. The Redskins just aren’t a team you can push around with Tiki Barber unless Eli Manning keeps them honest. This is a match up that Manning should be able to win but his trend this season is that he plays the same team about the same way the second time he sees them, and that does not bode well for the G-Men.

No real explosions from the Redskins fantasy wise but game wise they’ll do fine.

Prediction: Redskins 25 – Giants 23

Last week I boldly predicted the Steelers would lose to the Vikings! This week I boldly predict they will lose to the Browns! That’s right baby, once bitten twice fried. Charlie Frye‘d that is. The Steelers will run well and this is a good play for Willie Parker but the Browns secondary will put a surprising hurt on the Steelers receivers. Please direct all hate mail to me, Room 228, Psychiatric Ward, Belleview Hospital, New York, NY.

Prediction: Browns 20 – Steelers 17

The Eagles just do not have the horsepower to play four quarters of football anymore. The injuries and the TO mess did them in. The Cardinals have Josh/Larry/Moe/Luke/Curly McCown at the helm again and me thinks it’s near impossible to not have a good day with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald at the other end of those passes.

Prediction: Cardinals 24 – Eagles 17

It is too bad we’ll never find out but if the Colts won last week, their streak would have ended this weekend as the Seahawks in Seattle would have had an answer for them. They’ll still have an answer but against the Colts preseason scrubs? Yeah, not too tough.

Expect an offensive explosion against the Colts if the Seahawks play all their starters for four quarters.  However, it will not be surprising to me to watch Seattle throw their best preseason squad onto the field in the fourth quarter to match the Colts.

For kicks, a real Seahawks squad against a real Colts squad for four quarters in Seattle?  Seahawks win 35 – 28.  Preseason squads? It all depends on how much each team plays their starters and not even I know the ratio to make an honest prediction.  So I’ll stick with my full squad against full squad prediction that the Colts would and will still lose.

Prediction: Seahawks 35 – Colts 28

LaMont Jordan appears to be on the shelf with a bad case of turf toe but whatever really. This team is messier than a park full of dog doo-doo. Kerry Collins will actually pick up his play a little but not significantly.

The Broncos will run, run, run and then run some more. There’s really not much reason for them to throw the ball on Saturday though they’ll take their shots to Rod Smith.

Prediction: Broncos 27 – Raiders 14

Thomas Jones the only real start here as the Bears run Jones till his legs don’t respond. For whatever reason, I hadn’t seen a Bears game till last weekend and I was actually pretty stoked to see one as I wanted to see how their defense played and was excited to watch Brian Urlacher. While watching Urlacher get that frame of his around the field faster than anyone his size should be able to was exhilarating, I was more amazed by the running of Thomas Jones. Those that know me know I have always been a big fan of his and when he nose dived in Arizona I was shocked but it was easy to blame the team and ownership. When he exploded onto the scene in Tampa Bay I said, “Uh huh! Uh huh!” but then he unceremoniously faded, ultimately giving way to Michael Pittman and again I was left scratching my noggin’. When he roared out of the gates last season with the Bears to be the top fantasy RB in the league through Week 6 before getting hurt, I smiled like the all knowing Cheshire cat. When the Bears drafted Cedric Benson, my world was rocked again and I honestly still don’t get it. I watched Jones hit the holes hard and fast, making solid decisions and moving the chains 4 yards at a time and I was impressed. I’ll always be a Thomas Jones fan and will always draft him probably earlier than most because I see everything he can be.

The Packers are, well, not good.

Prediction: Bears 20 – Packers 14

This will be a solid game of football and a hard fought one, but one thing the Steelers showed last week was that the Vikings do not respond well to a top notch defense. The Vikings will beat all the poor to just above average D’s in the NFL but throw a Steeler or Ravens D at them and they just wilt under the pressure.

No real fantasy stats to look for here as the Ravens win with their D.

Prediction: Ravens 28 – Vikings 24

They’re back. Those that don’t want to see it won’t but those that know, see it. Corey Dillon is in for a big day and Tom Brady will keep the connection with David Givens purring.

The Jets know from game film that the Patriots front seven are the scariest in the league right now as they are shutting down everything close to coming their way. I think I heard some nutsoid stat like the Patriots haven’t allowed a 30 yard rusher in 4 games or something like that? Oy? Look for the Jets to work the Patriots secondary as best they can with short passes to Laveranues Coles. I’m being nice and giving the Jets 17 points since it is intra-division, no matter how lopsided it seems on paper they never are.  However, the Jets will be in for a long day at the Meadow Lands.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Jets 17