Thursday - Feb 21, 2019

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The Prognosticator – Week 4

Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator, may it be a nice comfy fantasy blanket for you. Week 4 blows into town with some intriguing matchups.  Monday Night Football this week between the Seahawks and Lions promises to be a barn burner so take a close look at that game.
Passing Rushing
Team Score Team Score
SEA 178 SEA 104
IND 175 SF 102
GB 172 JAX 87
BAL 169 CAR 86
DET 168 GB 77
NO 163 DAL 74
PIT 159 SD 67
DAL 150 CLE 66
NYG 145 DET 65
KC 142 MIN 65
DEN 139 STL 64
JAX 138 CIN 64
CIN 135 IND 61
SD 134 OAK 59
BUF 134 NYJ 59
WAS 132 ARI 58
NYJ 132 HOU 56
CAR 130 MIA 55
ARI 128 WAS 54
PHI 127 BUF 53
STL 122 DEN 53
ATL 121 BAL 52
HOU 121 PHI 51
CHI 120 PIT 51
SF 117 CHI 49
MIA 116 TB 49
TB 111 NYG 48
OAK 110 ATL 47
MIN 98 NO 47
CLE 89 KC 46

How to read the table: The table shows how a team will do Passing and Rushing in the upcoming week of the NFL. Red is HOT, Yellow is WARM, White is NORMAL, Light Blue is COLD and Dark Blue is FREEZING COLD. Play players from teams that are Red and Yellow, avoid players from teams that are Light or Dark Blue and expect average days from teams that are White.

All times are Eastern

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Thursday 8:25pm
The fact that this game is in Pittsburgh, on national television, between two teams that loathe each other, means one simple thing: throw the stats out the side-window as this game is truly any teams to win. If Ben Roethlisberger were playing the Steelers would be favored but since Michael Vick is under center, the lines makers swing this the Ravens way. It is true, Vick is not the Vick of old and those that are snatching him up on waivers this week will be somewhat disappointed week to week. Vick can still show flashes of good play but the days of him being a stud fantasy player are long behind him. However, both teams will have to throw the ball to have any success so expect a lot of high volume passing as both teams post good statistical days in the air.
Favorite: Baltimore Ravens by 2.5
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Baltimore Ravens 20
Category Advantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins – Sunday 9:30am
I think everyone and their brother thinks the Jets should win this. They’ll certainly have better fantasy days and I’d much rather start the Jets Defense than the Dolphins. What you have to remember though is that this is a divisional game, in London, against a Dolphins team that is sitting in the bottom of the division and we all know what can happen when you corner a wild Dolphin.
Favorite: New York Jets by 1.5
Prediction: Miami Dolphins 20 – New York Jets 17
Category Advantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills – Sunday 1:00pm
The Bills have some mojo going on right now and while you most certainly can point at Rex Ryan for being the catalyst, count me as one that am tired of his shtick where he always deflects from the team and puts the blame on himself when things don’t go right. I mean, I get it, it’s called coaching, but to say that he was “out coached” or “that one is on me” is just silly. It feeds in to what he’s trying to accomplish (and you can’t argue with the early results) but I do think it’s a bit of a circus at times.  But maybe that’s his way?
The Giants will be OK here in the air, the Patriots demonstrated for the world to see exactly how you beat the Bills in the air, but stay away from the Giants ground game. The Bills won’t post any big numbers on offense but they’ll do a nice job with balance and continuously putting pressure on Eli Manning to try and answer. I’m really liking rookie Karlos Williams too, who is dirt cheap in DFS.
Favorite: Buffalo Bills by 5.5
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 24 – New York Giants 17
Category Advantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – Sunday 1:00pm
The Colts are snake bit and that will show. Expect a huge day from Andrew Luck as he hits his receivers at will. The Jaguars had no answers for the Patriots and the Colts will bring that same muster. The Jaguars just aren’t built right. They are actually a very good running team but with a defense that gives up so many points, the game dictates that they have to put the ball in Blake Bortles‘ hands to try and catch up and that is where things go so terribly wrong.
Favorite: Indianapolis Colts by 9.5
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Category Advantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday 1:00pm
This truly should be a great game to watch. The Bengals are apparently good this year, or at least, are right now. They have a funny way of fading down the stretch but right now, here in Week 4? They’re actually pretty good. Their passing game is solid, their ground game is too, and their defense is solid up front. The only place they could use some help is in their secondary and ultimately, that will be their downfall when the snow flies. We have a lot of games still to be played but the Bengals have the look of a playoff team that won’t get too far in the post-season but have enough horses to get there.
You are likely going to be surprised by the low number that Jamaal Charles will post this week on the ground. You’re really hoping and praying for his involvement in the passing game and a touchdown or two to carry your fantasy day. Thankfully, that’s not too much to ask for as that’s what the Chiefs tend to do when an opposing defense manages to stop their ground game from gaining any momentum. The Bengals and Chiefs both will be fine up top and Marvin Jones makes a nice cheap play in DFS.
Favorite: Cincinnati Bengals by 3.5
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 17
Category Advantage
Rushing
Passing
Offense
Interceptions
Fumbles
Turnovers

About Tony Holm

Founder and President of FantasySharks.com. Five-time nominee for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame. Started publishing fantasy content on the web in 1993 and hasn't stopped yet.