Monday - Mar 25, 2019

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The Prognosticator – Week 4

Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator. May it be your ‘accidental overdose’. 

Team

Rushing

Passing

Against

ARI

107

227

ATL

ATL

129

187

ARI

BAL

107

134

SD

BUF

118

173

MIN

CAR

133

209

NO

CHI

81

229

SEA

CIN

87

233

NE

CLE

120

167

OAK

DAL

124

223

TEN

DET

93

216

STL

GB

91

245

PHI

HOU

87

185

MIA

IND

102

251

NYJ

JAX

110

211

WAS

KC

132

219

SF

MIA

139

237

HOU

MIN

113

190

BUF

NE

137

246

CIN

NO

97

198

CAR

NYJ

114

216

IND

OAK

91

189

CLE

PHI

105

276

GB

SD

107

165

BAL

SEA

105

193

CHI

SF

113

206

KC

STL

106

216

DET

TEN

84

192

DAL

WAS

107

181

JAX

Red – Smoking HOT!

Yellow – Warm

White – Room Temperature

Lt. Blue – Cool

Dk. Blue – Cold

 

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans Sunday 1:00p

Bill Parcells didn’t want Terrell Owens, doesn’t want Terrell Owens and if someone traded him a nice new pair of argyle socks for him, I think he’d take it. To understand why the Cowboys are where they are you have to know that Jerry Jones is a big fan of trying his hardest to accomplish one thing. His philosophy is pretty simple, he wants Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin and the one piece he thought he was missing was Michael Irvin. In a lot of ways, T.O. And Irvin are related, in many, many ways. That said I had a few cardinal rules for my drafts this year which I published on the site. One rule was “Do not draft T.O., no matter what.” I stuck to my guns, and am a happy fantasy football owner because of it.

Look for the Cowboys to have a fairly easy time of it against the Titans. Drew Bledsoe, Terry Glenn and Julius Jones all make solid starts.

The Titans are not good. I am recommending you bench all Titans players until further notice.

Cowboys 21 – Titans 17


San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens Sunday 1:00p

For my money, this and the Seahawks/Bears game are the best two on the card this week as both teams are almost mirror images of the other. Both like to emphasize their running game, both have top TE’s and both have two of the top D’s in the league. It’s just like they’re playing themselves and that’s why the score will be a little higher than many are predicting. This game will be no different than practice where the Chargers offense if going up against the Chargers defense or the Ravens units playing each other and there’ll be a strange familiarity for each offense.

Look for both to want to run the ball and have very average days. You obviously play LaDainian Tomlinson and possibly even Jamal Lewis but don’t expect a big day from either. Stay away from the passing game’s of both clubs unless it’s Antonio Gates or Todd Heap as both should do well.

Ravens 24 – Chargers 20


Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons Sunday 1:00p

The Cardinals will do just fine against the Falcons as Edgerrin James continues his support role, rolling up just enough fantasy stats to not hurt your team, but not really help either. Kurt Warner will respond and I like him, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin with Boldin the better play this week.

The Falcons do one thing really well and that’s run the ball. Look for a solid day for the Falcons running game as Warrick Dunn and possibly even Jerious Norwood get in on the action. I would be careful with Michael Vick this week as he will be handing off more than throwing.

Cardinals 20 – Falcons 17


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Sunday 1:00p

I hope the Saints fans have enjoyed the ride because it’s time to get off the bus. As mentioned in this column last week, no how, no way were the Saints going to do anything less than what we saw on Monday night in an emotionally charged contest. It is the nature of humanity and a lot of the time, you need to look past the stats (gasp!) to see something that’s so much bigger than what ‘should’ happen. I was one of the many delighted viewers pulling for the Saints and their fans. One small little problem however. This Sunday, the Saints revert back to the Saints we were expecting this season after the emotional drain plug has been pulled. In particular, all you Reggie Bush and Deuce McAlister owners need to be concerned here. I’d look elsewhere if you have other alternatives.

The Panthers will slice through the Saints primarily on the ground. DeShaun Foster should get the giddy up and go-go shoes on as he’ll be running between the tackles a lot. Steve Smith will help out as well but I look for a reduced role from Keyshawn Johnson this week. Maybe 1 TD for key but less receiving yards than he’s been gathering.

Panthers 30 – Saints 21


San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday 1:00p

I’ve been saying this since Week 1. This ain’t your mama’s 49’ers anymore and the sooner you start hunting and gathering 49’ers the better. They’re not a top notch team by any stretch but they will play hard and they will be in most games. I don’t expect a superstar from the 49’ers this Sunday but do expect them to be able to move the chains extremely efficiently with a well called, well executed game plan both up and down stairs. In a pinch, start your 49’ers but only in a pinch. For example, Alex Smith would get the nod over Steve McNair, J.P. Losman, Charlie Frye, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, David Carr, Brad Johnson, Andrew Walthers, Kerry Collins, Mark Brunell and get ready for this .. Matt Hasselbeck. Mmmmmmm .. the Kool-Aid keeps tasting better and better.

49’ers 21 – Chiefs 20


Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills Sunday 1:00p

The Vikings will try to get the ball into Chester Taylor’s hands and just because of his double punch on the ground and in the passing game, he’ll post acceptable fantasy starter numbers. Me, I shy away from the Vikings passing game this week even though I really like Troy Williamson as a budding receiver.

Did you know Willis McGahee leads the NFL in rushing? I’ll bet some of you didn’t. Here’s a tip, play McGahee. If you think J.P. Losman is about to repeat last weeks numbers this week, think again.

Bills 21 – Vikings 20


Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans Sunday 1:00p

The Dolphins should dominate the Texans but the Texans, for whatever reason, are playing with a little bit of grit and heart this season. A testament to a decent coaching job as they continue to play above their talent level. Statistically I expect a big day out of Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers as the Dolphins will start a lot of drives with lousy field position but will move the ball 80 yards at a time, chew up some clock, and work their way down field.

The Texans have Andre Johnson, and he’ll be used again in desperation time. If we kept a stat on statistics gathered in desperation time, Andre Johnson and Brett Favre would be the Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa of the NFL.

Dolphins 21 – Texans 20


Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets Sunday 1:00p

Let me state this up front. The Jets, just might win this. I mean really, they really will play lights out and will give the Colts a serious run for their money. If the Jets walk away the winners here, I will not be surprised even one little bit.

The Colts will be OK running the ball, nothing spectacular from either Joseph Addai or Dominic Rhodes. Peyton Manning will of course get his and he’s a lock for your lineup. Though keep in mind that the Jets corners play aggressive and will pester Manning with a few picks. Marvin Harrison makes a great start here.

The Jets will be surprisingly good against the Colts. They will run it a little as Kevan Barlow starts to show, just a little. They will throw it around to just about everyone ala the New England Patriots. Chad Pennington works in a pinch as there’s some extra risk this week with him. He may easily pass for over 300 but he could also pass for 140 so he is a luke-warm recommendation this week. They will be just good enough to get through this suddenly questionable Colts D to move the chains and suck some clock.

However! Sanity prevails ..

Colts 33 – Jets 30


Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams Sunday 4:05p

As mentioned last week, the Lions need some time to digest the playbook, they’ll be a little better and Roy Williams is the man. My two #2/#3 WR’s to target this season were Roy Williams and Andre Johnson. In the Great White Shark League I have Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson as my top 3 WR’s. How do I play Andre?? My 1-2 squad thus far for your harassing enjoyment:

Favre, Brett GBP QB
Grossman, Rex CHI QB
Pennington, Chad NYJ QB
Rivers, Philip SDC QB

Barber, Marion DAL RB
Foster, De’shaun CAR RB
Gado, Samkon HOU RB
Jackson, Steven STL RB
Maroney, Laurence NEP RB
 
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR
Givens, David TEN WR
Johnson, Andre HOU WR
Johnson, Chad CIN WR

Crumpler, Alge ATL TE

Rackers, Neil ARI PK

Bears, Chicago CHI Def

The Rams will have some successes here and there and everywhere. No big day for your Rams but all the usual suspects, Stephen Alexander, Tory Holt, and Marc Bulger should be in your lineup.

Rams 24 – Lions 14


New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals Sunday 4:15p

I’m making this disclaimer up front. I have no idea.

The numbers say Bengals. Bengals by a comfortable margin. However, the noise in the numbers obfuscates the validity of the result. In other words, the Bengals should win this but the Patriots have the best shot of the bunch to turn the tables and surprise the Bengals. Very much like a little Broncos team that just went into Foxboro as the dog and came out the dominator.

Play the Bengals passing game but it probably won’t be Chad Johnson catching the balls. Look for a variety of #3 and #4 WR’s to get involved in the game plan.

The Patriots may not win the game but they will go down in a ball of fire if they don’t. Expect a big day from Tom Brady maybe even Doug Gabriel and the Patriots running game will be rolling.

Bengals 31 – Patriots 23


Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins Sunday 4:15p

While this won’t be the Game of the Week, this will be the closest that any game comes to true, pure football. The Jaguars are for real and the Redskins were primed this off season to be one of the dominant players in the league. They’re just starting to unfurl their wings. Play whomever you want in this game, they all won’t hurt you and none of them will help you either.

Redskins 24 – Jaguars 23


Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders Sunday 4:15p

I have better things to do than write about a Browns/Raiders game. Are you kidding me? Write about that? Write about what?

Browns run the football, a lot. The Raiders are a disaster.

Browns 21 – Raiders 17


Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears Sunday 8:15p

This will be a fun game to watch. The Seahawks D as a unit want to look good and with the Bears in town, they’ll rise to the challenge and play well. The Seahawks will try much of the same that other teams have tried on the Bears with little success. Stop Thomas Jones and let Rex Grossman try to beat you. On a team that has a defense like the Bears, the only real strategy is to throw everything you have at stopping their running game, especially if it is a good one like the Bears have. Guess what? The Seahawks don’t have the personnel to make it work completely and Rex Grossman comes through again with a decent day.

The Seahawks will struggle against the Bears D. They will have their successes but they face an uphill battle all the way. The best unit in football, offensive or defensive is the Chicago Bears D and I don’t think any team, including those Manning kids, have a shot at cracking it.

Bears 27 – Seahawks 24


Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles Monday 8:30p

Two of the best aerial displays by a QB in Week 4 will happen in this game on Monday Night. Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb will join Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as the top QB plays of the weekend. Favre owners, after this weekend, are going to be sitting on one of the best picks in your 2006 draft. Expect Favre to hit everyone but Donald Driver of course gets the lions share.

The Eagles will counter effortlessly up top, burning the Packers secondary regularly. Donte Stallworth needs to be monitored closely as he is in line for a pile of statistics. Expect more receiving yards out of Brian Westbrook than rushing yards though he should also have a decent day.

Eagles 30 – Packers 23

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