Wednesday - Jun 26, 2019

Home / Uncategorized / The Prognosticator – Week 5

The Prognosticator – Week 5

Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator.  May it take back your lunch money from the school bully.  Last week The Progno was a day late because instead of putting the article together on Wednesday night like I do, I ripped apart my numbers and how they were calculated and put them back together again.  The result?  A blazing 12-1-1 against the spread!  I think we’ll stick with these calculations and see where we end up this week.  It has been three seasons since I’ve tweaked the formula but after much reflection I decided it was time to make some adjustments to my turnover calculations and how I score those. 

For those that are not aware, I actually do not pick this stuff out of thin air but rather, I have a fairly sophisticated “system” for picking games and fantasy success that takes into account a great number of variables.  It has been successful for me.  Hopefully you can put it to some good use as well.  Sounds like Jim did:

Mr. Holm,

I play a game on the side where you predict what teams will win for all the match-ups each week.  Then you rank them from most confident to least.  You can only get points for as far up the ladder you climb.  As soon as you have one wrong prediction, you are done.

Last week, with a lot of help from your article with score predictions I was able to climb 8 rungs on the ladder (The best of 100s for the week) and skyrocket myself to third place overall for our season standings.

Thank you!

Jim “Dominion” St. Onge

It was my pleasure Jim.

Team

Rushing

Passing

Against

ARI

Average

Cold

SF

ATL

Hot

Average

DET

BAL

Average

Frigid

WAS

BUF

Average

Average

NYJ

CAR

Average

Cold

DEN

CLE

Average

Frigid

PIT

DAL

Cold

Hot

NYG

DEN

Warm

Cold

CAR

DET

Frigid

Average

ATL

GB

Warm

Average

TEN

HOU

Average

Hot

MIN

IND

Average

Hot

OAK

JAX

Cold

Average

SD

MIA

Cold

Cold

NE

MIN

Average

Hot

HOU

NE

Warm

Average

MIA

NO

Average

Average

TB

NYG

Hot

Average

DAL

NYJ

Average

Average

BUF

OAK

Average

Hot

IND

PIT

Average

Average

CLE

SD

Average

Cold

JAX

SEA

Cold

Cold

STL

SF

Average

Average

ARI

STL

Cold

Average

SEA

TB

Average

Average

NO

TEN

Warm

Average

GB

WAS

Warm

Average

BAL

 

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts Sunday 1:00pm

Everyone poo-poo’d QB Kerry Collins on Monday as the arm chair quarterbacks came out in force.  “So much for that experiment” was a quote I saw.  If you read last week, you know that Collins is a Progno favorite and you need to realize that one week in a professional NFL offense does not a turnaround make.  Give him some time and he will respond.  Time’s up!  Play him this week and you’ll be happy you did.  Jerry Porter, come on down, we’ve been waiting and we are so glad you stopped by.  In a very strange twist of events I actually started Amos Zereoue in the Great White Shark Showcase League here at FantasySharks.  It was out of necessity I assure you, but there was something about the match up that made me take notice.  Zereoue and the Raiders game plan, the way I reasoned it out, would excel against the Texans by running the ball on the outside to take advantage of the Texan’s slow LB’s and the rest as they say, was history.  Look for more of Amos as Tyrone Wheatley appears to be on the shelf for two to four weeks and he is a good choice here as the Raiders will want a RB that has the potential to spark when lit as the Colts will probably be up early in this.

Peyton Manning is always in your lineup but because he spreads the ball all over the place, he devalues the rest of the Colts offense for fantasy numbers.  You obviously play your Colts as you never know which one will explode but as a rule, you should expect above average numbers from each of them.  Manning is on another plane right now and playing at a level few of us will ever see.

Prediction: Colts 34 – Raiders 21


Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons Sunday 1:00pm

The Lions are coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to plan for the Falcons which will certainly help their cause.  The Lions will have some plays drawn up that will work very well.  Artose Pinner gets that start at RB in relief but what a difficult opening task this is taking on the Falcons.  The Falcons D has been nothing short of miraculous and while Pinner has great size and speed, this is not the week to play him.

The Falcons will feature their running game because it arguably can be the best in football.  Between Warrick Dunn, Michael Vick and TJ Duckett, the Falcons should be able to run silly on just about anyone as all three runners have such drastically different qualities.  Look for the Falcons to keep winning based on their D and mad running skills.  Warrick Dunn a must play here but after TJ Duckett’s solid running last week, look for a little more from Duckett in situations as he really looked good.  

Lions compete in this due to their preparation but the Falcons are better and at home.

Prediction: Falcons 34 – Lions 28


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Sunday 1:00pm

Have we been calling the Giants games all season or what?  Anyone else see the article by Giants RB Tiki Barber about why it’s senseless to predict the NFL because it is impossible?  Phil Simms wrote a similar article this week as well.  Tiki went on to use his Giants as an example.  “No one expected us to win yet here we are at 3-1,” he states.  He obviously has not read The Progno as we’ve been picking the Giants right along with you Tiki.  Heck, we even jumped on the Charger band wagon long before there was a wagon?  I must confess, I have no idea what either one of you are talking about.  Just because you can’t predict the NFL does not mean we can’t as fantasy football fans are built on predicting.  We are not your regular football fan, we’re rabid and we know exactly what you are going to do, when you are going to do it and why you are going to do it long before you do.  Scary ain’t it?  

We’ve been touting Kurt Warner for two weeks now and I still see him available in some leagues?  Hello?   I think we all know inserting Tiki Barber in your starting lineup is a good thing.  Perhaps he’ll have another brilliant article about kickers or something next week.  

The Cowboys are going to roll in the air this week so do not be afraid to start Vinny Testaverde.  Picking which of the three receivers between Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn or Antonio Bryant is difficult but suffice it to say, the Cowboys are going to be throwing at all three a lot.  While Bill Parcells and Tom Coughlin are great friends, Parcells is the master here and it will show.  Sorry Tiki, looks like you guys are losing this week.  Just wanted to give you a heads up.

Prediction: Cowboys 23 – Giants 21


Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans Sunday 1:00pm

Onterrio Smith suspended, Michael Bennett (who I have in just about every league!  ARRR!) back under the knife, Moe Williams nursing and Mewelde Moore a rook, the once way deep RB position for the Vikings very quickly is scarier than “The Shining.”  Obviously the Vikings lean on Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss but the Texans are not going to let Moss escape them.  

The Texans have won two in a row and suddenly have a full head of steam.  As mentioned, David Carr is going to be solid and looks like he has arrived.  Expect Andre Johnson to get very much in the act this week as the Vikings corners are on the small side and he will be able to take advantage of the match up.  When the Texans aren’t ravaging the Vikings secondary they’ll be running it on the ground with whomever is healthiest between Domanick Davis or Jonathan Wells.  It really makes no difference.  

Surprise!

Prediction: Texans 27 – Vikings 21


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Sunday 1:00pm

The Bucs are inserting QB Chris Simms back into the lineup and I think this time for good.  It is a move by Jon Gruden to shake his team up as desperate times call for desperate measures.  Gruden is not the kind of coach that will stick with a rebuilding process long term so do not look at this as a youth movement that he is starting as a move for the future.  It is a move by him to energize his team and to show the veterans that they need to play for their jobs.  Some of those veterans may actually get their job back too but many won’t.  The Saints have no idea how to stop an opposing RB so Michael Pittman sees a lot of action this Sunday.  Not to mention the Bucs need to run to keep the pressure off Chris Simms and Pittman is the best thing they have.  Though as we have said, WR Michael Clayton should have received a long look by you two weeks ago when we started extolling his virtues.  For those not in the know, he is 6’3″, 210 pounds and has the ability to make a resounding clang in the NFL as early as this season.  Go back into your free agency pool, take a look, and act appropriately.  Do it for me. OK?

The Saints now have the mouth of QB Aaron Brooks to deal with.  Just let it go and play will you?  Neither one of these teams are all that good on any side of the ball and it will show.  This will be a very average football game, with very average numbers and very average results.  Deuce McAllister should sit another week and while Aaron Stecker is very much aware that his time to impress is running short, he won’t be able to crack the Bucs D for long ones.  Look for Brooks to struggle a little with the pass rush which will lighten the statistics from his receivers.  Naturally, Aaron Brooks will blame everyone and their grandmother after the game if they lose but luckily for us, the fans, the Saints will win due to some last minute heroics.  Aaron, I can call you Aaron right?  Do not go down this road my friend.  Don’t do it.  Players forget too quickly about the structure of the NFL and the business and why it is so important to have fans that support you.  Don’t mess this up and you can very quickly get on the path to recovery by just shutting up and make some plays.   

Prediction: Saints 24 – Buccaneers 17


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday 1:00pm

As boring a game as this will be, at least there is fun in the Browns and Steelers rivalry.  There will be a lot of Browns fans causing havoc in Pittsburgh which will add to the environment.  The Steelers own the Browns and there is little reason to think they won’t repeat history here and play the Brownies tough.  The Steelers will get it done with a variety of personnel making everyone a very average start.  In case you haven’t noticed, there is a very definite trend this week.  This my friends is the week of the blah’s.  There are going to be a lot of very average performances this week from a wide assortment of players.  You just need a stud performance or two and you should be fine as your opponent will be posting an extremely average score.

Lee Suggs makes his sophomore season debut and will run well.  Do not leave him on your bench.  

Prediction: Steelers 24 – Browns 20


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Sunday 1:00pm

I knew Ricky Williams would be back in the NFL one day.  He isn’t back yet but has asked his agent Lee Steinberg to pursue with the NFL what it would take to get him back into the league.  I knew this because it’s completely irrational, just like Ricky.  He only really wants to play for Norv Turner and the Raiders as that is his personal comfort zone.  I am not sure exactly why but this air of superiority really gets my goat.  I am now the President of the “People who don’t give a rat’s tail about Ricky Williams” fan club.  Membership is free, though don’t tell the other fantasy sites as they’ll find a way to charge you $9.95 for membership dues and give you a seal you can add to your signature.  

Dolphins stink, Patriots don’t.  Easy.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Dolphins 11


Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Sunday 4:05pm

More blah average play though Chad Pennington will be tossing in TD’s left and right to a variety of cast members.  There was really only one thing about the Bills that impressed me last week and that was the stand out play of WR Eric Moulds.  Moulds is quietly proving he is a better WR this season than many are giving him credit for and look for some big games ahead.  Trade for him now.  

The Jets are going to have a field day ripping apart the Buffalo secondary and throwing plenty of screens to Curtis Martin.  The Bills are capable of playing tough D and will up front but the Jets have the personnel to expose the Bills lack of speed better than the Patriots did.  

Prediction: Jets 37 – Bills 15


Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers Sunday 4:05pm

We all know now that the Jaguars D is good.  That is not even in question.  The Jaguars stayed with the Colts last week and for a few brief moments looked like they may actually pull it out.  I still believe that RB Fred Taylor is going to make a big impression the second half of this season and will be a great RB for your playoff run.  The Chargers can be thrown on but the Jaguars do not have the personnel to do it as QB Byron Leftwich has looked very average this season.  Jimmy Smith got on track a little last week and should grab a ball or two here.  

We have of course been picking the Chargers to win each week and taking heat for it.  That’s fine.  The Chargers will continue here by upsetting the Jaguars.  We talked about Reche Caldwell being a poor man’s Cris Carter Week 2 and mapped out why he should be on your team.  It is frustrating to see questions around fantasy nation about whether Reche Caldwell is for real.  Let’s go two weeks back, Reche Caldwell is a poor man’s Cris Carter and based on Caldwell’s wonderlic score coming out of college (a measure of intelligence) it took him a few years to learn the first 5 pages of the playbook.  But now that he is on page 6, watch out.  

The Chargers just win every week and one day soon, someone will realize the Chargers are good enough to win.  Till that day..

Prediction: Chargers 28 – Jaguars 17


St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks Sunday 4:15pm

Look for this game to emphasize that the Rams are a good home team but will have a lot of trouble winning on the road in 2004.  Even though RB Stephen Jackson has a better rushing average than Marshall Faulk, Faulk is so valuable in the passing game that he will be in as long as he is able.  Everyone is singing the praises of Isaac Bruce as the stud WR in the NFC but Torry Holt has 2 less receptions and 1 more TD yet Isaac Bruce is all the rage?  Look for Holt to win this one over the course of the season and be the man here hands down.  

Seattle is balanced on offense and defense and can bring it on both sides of the ball.  As stated an article or two ago, I’ll take the Seahawks as the team to beat in the NFC unless the Eagles miraculously can fend off the injury bug.  Look for a quiet day all around from the Seahawks however.  The Rams will get their shots in but the Seahawks D is going to cause a lot of havoc and will take the ball away a lot.  The lopsided turnover battle win by the Seahawks, coupled by a home game, make the Seahawks tough to beat.

Prediction: Seahawks 27 – Rams 17


Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos Sunday 4:15pm

The Panthers are calling on their front defensive four to put this team on their back.  That is going to be a tough task even for this top notch unit.  The Panthers are going to try and run DeShaun Foster though Stephen Davis could see some time.  Make sure to keep an eye on this situation and play Foster if you need to.  The Broncos traded for Champ Bailey for a reason and he will shut down Mushin Muhammad which will once again force Jake Delhomme to look for, here’s that name again, Keary Colbert.  

The Broncos are a very good team and should contend this season.  They desperately want to get their running game going and I think little Quentin Griffin’s time is short.  I started this preseason explaining why Griffin was not the guy that would carry the load for this team and why I thought Garrison Hearst was going to get his crack at this job.  I was just about ready to insert foot in mouth too.  The Broncos are going to take a long hard look at Tatum Bell of course but my hunch remains, that if Garrison Hearst can fuel their running game they will stick with him.  Especially if it appears they are winning games.  Look for Hearst to run well this Sunday and be the next hot waiver wire pickup.

Prediction: Broncos 23 – Panthers 14


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Sunday 4:15pm

Emmitt Smith ran wild and even had a TD pass last week as owners everywhere were forced into starting Emmitt to cover a bye week.  Tough week huh?  The Cardinals are going to once again emphasize their running game with Emmitt and they will also mix in a healthy dose of Troy Hambrick.  Because they will have surprising success they will be able to control the clock and win this one on their terms.  

The 49’ers should be able to run on the smallish Cardinals D and I expect Kevan Barlow to have a decent day.  I have seen a few folks pick up QB Tim Rattay this week but he is still available in some leagues.  Go get him.

This week however the Cardinals keep it going and slightly surprise the 49’ers as I find this hard to believe but, the Cardinals are a little better than the 49’ers, for now.

Prediction: Cardinals 24 – 49’ers 17


Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins Sunday 8:30pm

You always play Jamal Lewis no matter what but the Redskins are tough to run on.  It sounds like the NFL will suspend Lewis but I would be surprised if it will be for more than a couple of games due to the nature of the offense, his overall involvement and the fact that it took place four years ago.  A lot of folks are pointing at Chester Taylor as the back to insure Jamal Lewis but I still am leaning the Musa Smith way as Taylor makes a good change of pace back to Lewis, which is why we have seem more of him, but Musa makes a better straight up replacement while Taylor remains the change of pace guy.

The Redskins are in for a swarming, angry, energized, dog crazed Ravens D.  I have to give big props to the Chiefs offensive line not only for the way they pushed the Ravens around last Monday Night but for how they did it.  The Ravens were harping, chattering, pointing and challenging the Chiefs to bring it.  The Chiefs brought it alright but brought it like another day at the office.  They quietly went about their business, pushing the Ravens D around as the Ravens kept challenging them to bring it.  Ridiculous.  

Look for Rod Gardner to be open and available for action.  Gardner tends to be the long ball guy but the Redskins will need to shorten up his routes some and not look for the bomb as much if they want to have success.  I believe Clinton Portis now leads the league in backfield hits.  Not good.  To the people that said our season projections looked silly because we were the only people to have Portis outside our Top 10 RB’s for 2004, well, I guess you’re long gone and probably paying good coin to some folks that talked you into drafting him.  Good luck with that.

Prediction: Ravens 23 – Redskins 20


Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers Monday 9:00pm

The question is whether the Titans QB Steve McNair and Packers QB Brett Favre will play and the answer is a resounding yes on both fronts.  The Packers QB lost his brother-in-law in a freak accident this week but for those that remember Favre playing the week he lost his Dad, perhaps the most important person in his life, you’ll remember how inspirational his performance was.  Brett Favre plays with his heart on his sleeve and when adversity strikes, Brett Favre strikes back.

The Titans will play well in general and do not look for a repeat bad performance from gifted RB Chris Brown.  

The Packers at home on Monday night is just a little too much for the Titans to handle however.  It will be a solid game of football and a chess match to be sure but the Packers will work their Monday night magic at Lambeau as they always do.

Prediction: Packers 20 – Titans 17


About Fantasy Sharks

FantasySharks.com launched in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is (or has been) home to some of the most talented and respected writers and content creators in fantasy football.