Wednesday - Apr 24, 2019

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The Prognosticator – Week 7

 

Welcome my fantasy brethren to another edition of The Prognosticator.  May it be your Game 7.  The progno is coming off a 7 game Red Sox and Yankees grueling marathon of a series, where not a pitch was missed.  The good guys finally won and the sting of Aaron Boone’s 11th inning bomb in the 2003 ALCS has finally left me.  The euphoric feeling is one that transcends text but oh my goodness this feels good.  The weight of 2003 lifted coupled with the excitement of what begins on Saturday is almost too much to bear!  As the progno predicted in this very column last week, the Sox would drag the series out to a Game 7 and thanks to all the Yankees fans who quickly checked in with their “comments” on my sanity.  A lot of people doubted the Red Sox, even some Red Sox fans.  And why not?  History was against them after all.  Something feels different about these Red Sox though.  Something smells very champion’esque.

A short Progno this week my friends due to a lot of sleepless nights with the Red Sox and a lot more on the horizon.  I apologize to the faithful but it has been 18 years since the Red Sox were in the World Series (when I was 19) and I am simply not going to miss even one Curt Schilling performance or even one David Ortiz home run.  This has been a long time coming.

 

Team

Rushing

Passing

Against

ARI

Hot

Frigid

SEA

ATL

Cold

Frigid

KC

BAL

Average

Frigid

BUF

BUF

Frigid

Cold

BAL

CAR

Average

Warm

SD

CHI

Frigid

Frigid

TB

CIN

Frigid

Frigid

DEN

CLE

Warm

Average

PHI

DAL

Frigid

Average

GB

DEN

Hot

Average

CIN

DET

Warm

Frigid

NYG

GB

Warm

Hot

DAL

IND

Frigid

Warm

JAX

JAX

Average

Hot

IND

KC

Cold

Average

ATL

MIA

Warm

Average

STL

MIN

Cold

Hot

TEN

NE

Frigid

Average

NYJ

NO

Frigid

Average

OAK

NYG

Hot

Warm

DET

NYJ

Hot

Warm

NE

OAK

Frigid

Warm

NO

PHI

Warm

Warm

CLE

SD

Cold

Cold

CAR

SEA

Hot

Hot

ARI

STL

Frigid

Cold

MIA

TB

Hot

Warm

CHI

TEN

Hot

Warm

MIN

 


Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday 1:00pm

Thomas Jones is a one man show in this offense and everyone knows it.  The Bucs have the personnel to shut the door on the Bears so while Jones may have a decent number of rushing attempts and receptions, don’t look for too much else.  Sounds like Tim Couch is in town looking for a job.  Unless he has grown an extra head, it seems implausible that he won’t find one.  

Bucs will run Michael Pittman to control the game and win this at their leisure.

Prediction: Buccaneers 23 – Bears 14


Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns Sunday 1:00pm

You really don’t need me to tell you to play your Eagles.  If you want that kind of advice switch to one of the other fantasy football columnists.  They’re all lathered up over why Terrell Owens makes a great start.  Cha-ching!  There’s another charge to your Visa card for that incredible can’t miss advice.  

Now for what you’re not going to read.  The Browns are going to keep this scary close.  Like seat of your pants close and it is going to shock and make people look a little closer at the Browns as a team on the rise due to their performance.  William Green got the rushing and Lee Suggs got the passing but that is great news for Suggs owners.  The back that can catch is always worth more to the team and to fantasy owners.  Listen to me now and win later, Lee Suggs is going to be a guy that will be there for you big time come playoff time.  If you can make the trade, get him now while his value is low.

Prediction: Eagles 23 – Browns 21


Detroit Lions at New York Giants Sunday 1:00pm

This comes down to whether or not WR Roy Williams is playing at 100%.  Since that is doubtful, this is an uphill day for the Lions.  Look for the Lions to run the ball with some success early but then be forced to the air where they won’t be able to compete.

Tiki Barber is rested and is in for a big day.  Kurt Warner continues to run this offense efficiently and that will continue as the Giants look good this Sunday.

Prediction: Giants 30 – Lions 17


St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins Sunday 1:00pm

The Rams are doing things that no one else in the league is doing.  They have different looks and are implementing a radically modified offense to what is accepted as normal.  Because of it, they will break some big plays.  However, in general, they’re in for a rough day fantasy wise due to the Dolphins very tough defense.  Everyone laughs at the fins but their Defense is no laughing matter.  They will shut down the Rams at times but Tory Holt is likely to spring free from time to time to put the Rams on the board.

Those that know me well know I have always liked Sammy Morris and I firmly believe he is one of the most under utilized players in the NFL.  No one has yet to take advantage of his soft hands as they are always too enamored with his size and assume big men can’t catch.  I’ve made this statement in The Progno before over the past few years, Sammy Morris is top 5 material as the best pass catching back in the NFL.  At one point I made the statement that next to Marshall Faulk, Sammy Morris was the best pass catching back in the NFL but guys like LaDainian Tomlinson have come onto the scene since that statement and you have to give Tomlinson his props.  It remains to be seen whether anyone ever wakes up enough to notice what Sammy Morris can bring to an offense.  Decent day on tap for Morris.  

Prediction: Rams 23 – Dolphins 13


Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday 1:00pm

Michael Vick never disappoints on the field.  He brings something extra that isn’t always reflected in his stats.  If you can get a can of Coke for Peerless Price I’d make that trade and come out a winner.  Tricky running situation between Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett this week.  Be careful Dunn owners.

The Falcons D is a very good one and they get missing personnel from their secondary back this week that will make them better.  An uphill day for the Chiefs but Trent Green is playing well as of late and of course, the other sites say to start Priest Holmes.  In case there is a question, I do agree. 

Prediction: Chiefs 20 – Falcons 17


San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers Sunday 1:00pm

The Chargers are the underdog as usual.  You know my stance by now if you’ve been reading this season and what a crock this continues to be.  The Chargers lost Reche Caldwell for the year but signed Keenan McCardell in his place.  Upgrade Chargers.  The Chargers will not be your fantasy friend this week but they will figure out ways to put points on the board. 

The Panthers as stated last week will start to open up Jake Delhomme for business a little more with their Running Back woes.  Look for that to continue this week as he, Mushin Muhammad and Keary Colbert connect frequently.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Panthers 17


Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings Sunday 1:00pm

Two big question marks in this game that very much can effect the outcome for either side.  For the Titans it is the health of RB Chris Brown and for the Vikings it is of course the hamstring of Randy Moss.  There are just too many meaningful variables to accurately project this but assuming both play (and I’m assuming Moss actually doesn’t) the Vikings will win this in Minnesota.  If Chris Brown plays then he is in for a big day as is the entire Tennessee Titans offense, play them if you have them. 

The Vikings will win with or without the Randy ratio.  If Randy does not play, have no fear plugging either Marcus Robinson or Nate Burleson into your lineup this week.  Sounds like the Vikings aren’t finished evaluating Mewelde Moore even though Michael Bennett sounds ready.  We will see if that is chin music or reality, I’m leaning on the chin side.

Prediction: Vikings 30 – Titans 23


Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Sunday 1:00pm

Fairly simple formula here.  This comes down to the Jaguars passing game vs. the Colts passing game and I think we all know who wins that one.  Do not be afraid to play Byron Leftwich or Jimmy Smith as they will be relied upon and their number will be called often. 

Prediction: Colts 37 – Jaguars 17


Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Sunday 1:00pm

Willis McGahee auditioned well and smacked a lot of pundits in the teeth with his performance last week.  Tough doings in Baltimore this week as the weak Bills offensive line is going to cause Drew Bledsoe to spend a lot of time with the smelling salts.  The Bills fans are going to get their wish as Bledsoe will think he is Batman by the time this one is all over.

Word on the street is that Chester Taylor will get the start in Jamal Lewis‘ absence but that still doesn’t completely add up for me.  Everyone is expecting Taylor, the teams has indicated Taylor is the guy but why is there that nagging tingle in the back of my neck?  It just doesn’t smell completely right to me with Musa Smith in the wings.  The Bills will be tough to run on and I still think Musa Smith is the better pick for the Ravens in this situation.  I’d avoid the mess until next week if I were you. 

Prediction: Ravens 28 – Bills 14


New York Jets at New England Patriots Sunday 4:05pm

The battle for the division is nigh.  The Jets always play the Patriots tough and Curtis Martin historically has been a Patriots killer.  The Jets defense is my selection for “Most underrated in the NFL.”  and make no mistake about it, the Jets are going to be tough. 

The X Factor is always the Patriots D.  I am not looking for big numbers from the Patriots offense this week statistically but the Pats D will be able to put them in a position for easy scores. 

Prediction: Patriots 32 – Jets 21


New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders Sunday 4:15pm

Both teams will rely on their passing game a little more this week.  Look for the Saints to throw more to Donte Stallworth but particularly Jerome Pathon as the Raiders will have Joe Horn covered with an afghan and a sack tie. 

I understand how silly this is about to sound as I was the last one to jump off the Kerry Collins cart last week but I’m back on and it’s very lonely back here.  Kerry Collins is about to put in a serviceable fantasy performance.  If he doesn’t, I will never get back on this stinking cart again this season.  Just when you gave up on Jerry Porter too.  The potential and situation are there for Porter to come to the office this weekend.

Prediction: Saints 23 – Raiders 21


Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers Sunday 4:15pm

Terry Glenn’s stock just jumped with the departure of Antonio Bryant to Cleveland.  Yes the Cowboys got Quincy Morgan in the deal but it will take a few weeks for Morgan to learn the playbook and be effective.  Terry Glenn makes a good start on Sunday. 

The Packers are going to have a solid day.  Ahman Green should be fine but Brett Favre and either Javon Walker (if he plays) or Donald Driver are in for big days.

Prediction: Packers 24 – Cowboys 17


Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Sunday 4:15pm

There is something funny about this game.  Is that funny ha-ha or funny peculiar?  A little of both actually.  Seattle will be able to move the ball almost at will against the Cardinals and will get both Shaun Alexander and Darrell Jackson involved. 

Herein lies the humor.  The Cardinals are coming off a bye week giving them an extra week to prepare.  The Cardinals are at home and before the break were actually playing well, especially their running game with Emmitt Smith.  The Seahawks put a lot into that game against the Patriots last weekend and are poised to take this game too lightly. 

In a shocking turn of events, the Cards win on national TV!

Prediction: Cardinals 30 – Seahawks 27


Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals Monday 9:00pm

The Broncos, well, kind of dismantled the Raiders last Sunday.  Not quite the billing I was giving it now was it?  You simply can’t ignore the fine work of Reuben Droughns.  After further reflection, I do not think the Broncos have their backfield settled yet but I made the statement that I expect Droughns to be the Broncos Mike Anderson next season at FB.  I am apologizing for and retracting that statement.  I assumed Reuben Droughns was heavier than he is since when he came out of college he was in between a HB and a FB and I always assumed an NFL weight room would bulk him up which would eventually score him a FB job in the NFL.  I’m not so sure anymore as he has actually slimmed down and is more a HB than a FB today.  Reuben Droughns could be the find of the season.

The Bengals are not going to want to stink up their very rare opportunity on Monday Night, especially Chad Johnson who has a flare for the extravagant.  How they are not going to stink up Monday Night against the Broncos is beyond me.  The only thing they have going for them is this rare Monday Night in Cincinnati and I’ll allow some wiggle room for some magic but I won’t carry this into a full blown fairy land.   

Prediction: Broncos 23 – Bengals 20


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