Monday - Apr 22, 2019

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The Sin City Betbot 6000 Presents

Initially built by NASA to set lines for the

Las Vegas casinos in the late 50

s (who do you think funded the Apollo missions? The government? It was the mob), The

Sin

City Betbot 6000 calculated lines for over 30 years. The Betbot was given various upgrades through the years, not always with the best equipment, but he was very good at setting lines, and living the good life.

 

The Betbot was de-commissioned in 1990 after

San Francisco destroyed

Denver in the Super Bowl. The 45 point spread simply fried a number of the Betbot

s wires and he retired. The Betbot was discovered by Fantasysharks.com and retooled to give fantasy advice. He lives now to help your team with deeper sleepers to start each week.

 

The Betbot

s column is transcribed each week by Tom Walls, because,

Typing is a dame

s BZZZT job.

 

Forgive me please if I go a little bleeping off track here.

 

You, Mr. Joey Bishop, are a good man, you’re a good bleeping man.

 

In a lot of ways Joey Bishop was my favorite friend. Joey Bishop was a rock, a solid citizen and a gentleman. And in the Vegas business, in showbiz, men like Joey Bishop are as rare as Steak Tartar.

 

Joey Bishop was born (birth name Joesph Abraham Gottlieb) on a cold February day in 1918, but his heart was as warm as borscht. As warm as bleeping borscht. Joey Bishop passed to his Great Reward last week, as I am sure you are aware. Of course Joey Bishop was the last surviving (human) member of the Rat Pack.

 

I’ll be at Joey’s memorial service, and if I had tear ducts, they’d be shooting tears, big bleeping time.

 

Godspeed, Mr. Bishop!

 

Ahhhh…on to my deeper sleeper report.

 

Let’s start with the hottest pick up this week,

Jesse Chatman, yes – of course you should pick him up if possible. No questions asked. But let’s look a little deeper –

Patrick Cobbs…who? Yes, Patrick Cobbs, I don’t see Chatman as a 20-25 carry back, and the Dolphins need to be careful at this point with their RBs’ health. Cobbs had three carries, one of which for a touchdown last week. Pick Cobbs up and stash him away.

 

Another Dolphin? Yes another Dolphin, the team stinks, but is chock full of deeper sleepers that can help you with bye weeks. Who is the mystery Dolphin?

Derek Hagan, the second year WR. Chris Chambers’ trade to San Diego opens things up for Hagan and

Ted Ginn, Jr. I am putting my money on Hagan, even though conventional wisdom points to Ginn, just because Cam Cameron is already in hot water, and needs to have a small victory by having his first round pick not be a mere kick returner. What a mistake that poick was, but I bleeping digress.

 

Hagan’s Confidence Index numbers stand out to me (1.55/15.5/198.4) – His raw Confidence Index number of 1.55 is

12 overall. Cleo Lemon is a raw QB and needs WRs he can count on, I think Hagan will get some more looks as Lemon runs from the overrated (wait till they play good teams again) Giants pass rush in London.

 

Feedback Loop:

 

Hey Betbot,

 

No way you went out with Samantha Fox, like you said in your last column. No freakin way!

 

Mike

Austin, TX

 

Dear Mike,

 

Austin is my favorite city by far in Texas. That’s about all I can say for you…By the way, you want proof? Get some!

 

 

 

 

Below is this week’s Confidence Index. If you want this in Excel format, contact Tom Walls at

soylent_red@hotmail.com

 

People say to me:

 

BetBot, how do you do it? How do you pick such great fantasy deeper sleepers?

BetBot, how can you consistently find those hidden gems?

BetBot, can you help me find deeper sleepers?

BetBot, can you blow on these dice so I can make the point?

 

Well, I can’t blow on dice, because I don’t breathe. And I can’t fully explain my internally programmed heuristics and algorithms for predicting a player’s success, nor would I want to…but I can give you some …BZT… help.

 

The main factors I look at when trying to find those hidden gems at receiving positions is the confidence a QB has in his receiver. Now, I’m not in the locker room, or in the players’ meetings, so I don’t know what’s being said – but we all have access to statistics.  I will share with you each week my tailor made Confidence Index. This index, I believe, gives…BZZT… a simple, easy to understand view of factors a team or QB makes when determining who should get the ball.

 

Straight up, here is the calculation for the unweighted Confidence Index:

 

(Rc/Tg) + 1.3*(Pos/Tg)

Where

Rc = Year to Date Receptions by the Receiver

Tg = Year to Date Targets at the Receiver

Pos = Year to Date Positive plays by the receiver – positive plays are first downs and touchdowns

 

Basically, this boils down the confidence a QB has that once he throws the ball, the receiver will:

 

A)

   

Catch it

B)

   

Make something positive happen after the catch (first down or touchdown)

 

I give 30% more weight to a receiver catching the ball for a first down or TD than I do for a simple reception, and I give the same weight to a touchdown. This is because I view touchdowns by receivers as plays where some fluky things happen (more so than a RB, say).  I don’t want to overweight TDs, but it is important to capture.  Also, you guys already bleeping…BZT… know about receivers with a lot of TDs.  We’re talking

DEEPER sleepers here, capiche?

 

Why is this an important metric for finding fantasy players who can surprise?  Because NFL coaches are looking at this kind of data, too – maybe not in statistical form like I’ve done here, but they’re noticing which receivers on their team are making the most of their chances.  You can be sure that a player who stands out as a first down machine will get more passes thrown their way in the coming weeks – and as every smart fantasy player knows, opportunity is 80% of performance.  You have to get the ball to score points.

NAME

POS

TARG

REC

RECYD

POS PLAY

Confidence Index

CI * Recpts

CI * Yards

Ben Watson

TE

20

18

222

17

2.005

36.09

445.11

Glenn Martinez

WR

8

7

81

6

1.850

12.95

149.85

Troy Walters

WR

5

4

54

4

1.840

7.36

99.36

Heath Miller

TE

28

22

291

20

1.714

37.71

498.86

Sean McHugh

TE

9

7

98

6

1.644

11.51

161.16

Randy Moss

WR

60

44

732

42

1.643

72.31

1202.92

Brandon Stokley

WR

25

17

248

18

1.616

27.47

400.77

Ben Utecht

TE

9

8

78

5

1.611

12.89

125.67

Brent Celek

TE

7

6

53

4

1.600

9.60

84.80

Antonio Gates

TE

54

43

547

33

1.591

68.40

870.14

Santonio Holmes

WR

31

20

339

22

1.568

31.35

531.46

Derek Hagan

WR

14

10

128

9

1.550

15.50

198.40

Chris Baker

TE

17

12

124

11

1.547

18.56

191.84

Ernest Wilford

WR

18

13

132

11

1.517

19.72

200.20

Reggie Williams

WR

16

11

102

10

1.500

16.50

153.00

David Anderson

WR

13

9

106

8

1.492

13.43

158.18

Ike Hilliard

WR

46

36

455

25

1.489

53.61

677.55

John Madsen

TE

6

5

71

3

1.483

7.42

105.32

Andre Johnson

WR

20

14

262

12

1.480

20.72

387.76

Tony Scheffler

TE

10

7

87

6

1.480

10.36

128.76

Roscoe Parrish

WR

24

21

187

11

1.471

30.89

275.05

Wes Welker

WR

62

47

524

33

1.450

68.15

759.80

Glenn Holt

WR

15

10

113

9

1.447

14.47

163.47

Owen Daniels

TE

43

31

392

24

1.447

44.84

567.03

Martrez Milner

TE

6

6

40

2

1.433

8.60

57.33

Dwayne Bowe

WR

46

29

499

28

1.422

41.23

709.45

Justin Peelle

TE

16

11

107

9

1.419

15.61

151.81

Reggie Wayne

WR

54

37

500

30

1.407

52.07

703.70

Marcus Pollard

TE

15

12

123

7

1.407

16.88

173.02

Antwaan Randle El

WR

33

23

422

18

1.406

32.34

593.36

Chad Johnson

WR

64

39

680

39

1.402

54.66

953.06

Shaun McDonald

WR

39

27

304

21

1.392

37.59

423.26

Ruvell Martin

WR

10

6

102

6

1.380

8.28

140.76

Donte Stallworth

WR

32

22

367

17

1.378

30.32

505.77

Roddy White

WR

46

33

530

23

1.367

45.12

724.72

Dallas Clark

TE

46

30

366

25

1.359

40.76

497.28

Plaxico Burress

WR

57

35

550

32

1.344

47.04

739.12

Donald Lee

TE

29

22

270

13

1.341

29.51

362.17

David Martin

TE

20

15

111

9

1.335

20.03

148.19

Braylon Edwards

WR

52

29

552

31

1.333

38.65

735.65

Justin Gage

WR

22

15

181

11

1.332

19.98

241.06

Bobby Engram

WR

50

34

468

25

1.330

45.22

622.44

Jason Witten

TE

62

42

540

31

1.327

55.75

716.81

Joey Galloway

WR

37

27

449

17

1.327

35.83

595.84

Dominique Byrd

TE

5

4

44

2

1.320

5.28

58.08

Josh Reed

WR

21

16

188

9

1.319

21.10

247.98

Jerheme Urban

WR

18

12

164

9

1.317

15.80

215.93

Bryan Fletcher

TE

6

4

58

3

1.317

5.27

76.37

Jason Avant

WR

19

12

145

10

1.316

15.79

190.79

Chris Cooley

TE

32

20

188

17

1.316

26.31

247.34

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

WR

78

51

550

39

1.304

66.50

717.12

Ronald Curry

WR

42

26

341

22

1.300

33.80

443.30

Calvin Johnson

WR

24

13

229

14

1.300

16.90

297.70

Patrick Crayton

WR

43

26

400

23

1.300

33.80

520.00

Michael Gaines

TE

11

9

52

4

1.291

11.62

67.13

Tony Gonzalez

TE

62

42

506

29

1.285

53.99

650.45

Roydell Williams

WR

32

19

296

17

1.284

24.40

380.18

Kevin Walter

WR

48

33

435

22

1.283

42.35

558.25

Amani Toomer

WR

44

29

342

21

1.280

37.11

437.60

Devin Hester

WR

9

5

125

5

1.278

6.39

159.72

Will Heller

TE

9

5

30

5

1.278

6.39

38.33

Greg Estandia

TE

8

5

83

4

1.275

6.38

105.83

Greg Olsen

TE

23

15

196

11

1.274

19.11

249.69

Anquan Boldin

WR

45

30

315

21

1.273

38.20

401.10

Jerricho Cotchery

WR

59

41

544

26

1.268

51.98

689.68

Kevin Curtis

WR

49

29

506

25

1.255

36.40

635.08

Michael Clayton

WR

11

6

109

6

1.255

7.53

136.75

Desmond Clark

TE

35

27

311

13

1.254

33.87

390.08

Terrell Owens

WR

63

34

556

34

1.241

42.20

690.15

Roy Williams

WR

47

32

449

20

1.234

39.49

554.09

Joe Jurevicius

WR

27

15

160

14

1.230

18.44

196.74

Anthony Gonzalez

WR

18

13

178

7

1.228

15.96

218.54

Alex Smith

TE

22

14

133

10

1.227

17.18

163.23

Anthony Fasano

TE

10

7

71

4

1.220

8.54

86.62

Michael Jenkins

WR

39

24

262

18

1.215

29.17

318.43

Jabar Gaffney

WR

13

8

59

6

1.215

9.72

71.71

Bernard Berrian

WR

59

34

473

29

1.215

41.32

574.82

Laveranues Coles

WR

66

41

460

30

1.212

49.70

557.58

Derrick Mason

WR

81

56

529

32

1.205

67.48

637.41

Kellen Winslow Jr

TE

50

29

506

24

1.204

34.92

609.22

Steve Smith

WR

54

35

496

23

1.202

42.06

596.12

Drew Carter

WR

20

11

119

10

1.200

13.20

142.80

Leonard Pope

TE

14

9

95

6

1.200

10.80

114.00

Jacoby Jones

WR

11

8

70

4

1.200

9.60

84.00

Torry Holt

WR

66

40

466

30

1.197

47.88

557.79

Todd Heap

TE

29

19

201

12

1.193

22.67

239.81

Alge Crumpler

TE

28

19

203

11

1.189

22.60

241.43

Quinn Sypniewski

TE

24

18

123

8

1.183

21.30

145.55

Robert Royal

TE

12

9

83

4

1.183

10.65

98.22

Jeremy Shockey

TE

47

28

332

21

1.177

32.94

390.63

Mike Furrey

WR

34

23

284

13

1.174

26.99

333.28

Eric Moulds

WR

25

15

122

11

1.172

17.58

142.98

Eric Johnson

TE

35

28

194

10

1.171

32.80

227.26

Brandon Jones

WR

20

13

172

8

1.170

15.21

201.24

Brandon Marshall

WR

56

33

439

25

1.170

38.60

513.47

Vincent Jackson

WR

35

20

320

16

1.166

23.31

373.03

Lance Moore

WR

25

16

177

10

1.160

18.56

205.32

Jeff King

TE

29

18

189

12

1.159

20.86

218.98

Dennis Northcutt

WR

37

22

308

16

1.157

25.45

356.28

Marvin Harrison

WR

32

20

247

13

1.153

23.06

284.82

Deion Branch

WR

36

22

343

15

1.153

25.36

395.40

Donald Driver

WR

55

36

412

21

1.151

41.43

474.17

Marques Colston

WR

43

26

263

18

1.149

29.87

302.14

Daniel Graham

TE

13

11

87

3

1.146

12.61

99.72

Matt Schobel

TE

11

6

57

5

1.136

6.82

64.77

Kyle Brady

TE

11

6

38

5

1.136

6.82

43.18

Andre Davis

WR

34

20

384

14

1.124

22.47

431.44

Sean Ryan

TE

5

3

46

2

1.120

3.36

51.52

Anthony Mix

WR

5

3

39

2

1.120

3.36

43.68

Dane Looker

WR

5

3

19

2

1.120

3.36

21.28

Dan Coats

TE

5

3

23

2

1.120

3.36

25.76

Larry Fitzgerald

WR

77

47

645

30

1.117

52.49

720.39

Ben Hartsock

TE

8

5

37

3

1.113

5.56

41.16

Samie Parker

WR

19

12

131

7

1.111

13.33

145.48

George Wrighster

TE

9

6

38

3

1.100

6.60

41.80

Bo Scaife

TE

29

16

149

12

1.090

17.43

162.36

Javon Walker

WR

30

19

230

10

1.067

20.27

245.33

Tim Carter

WR

12

5

86

6

1.067

5.33

91.73

Sam Hurd

WR

13

6

120

6

1.062

6.37

127.38

Skyler Green

WR

5

4

40

1

1.060

4.24

42.40

Brad Smith

WR

19

11

126

7

1.058

11.64

133.29

Bryant Johnson

WR

35

20

226

13

1.054

21.09

238.27

Marques Hagans

WR

15

8

101

6

1.053

8.43

106.39

Marcedes Lewis

TE

24

16

174

7

1.046

16.73

181.98

Cedrick Wilson

WR

13

7

93

5

1.038

7.27

96.58

Peerless Price

WR

13

7

68

5

1.038

7.27

70.62

Visanthe Shiancoe

TE

15

9

107

5

1.033

9.30

110.57

Sidney Rice

WR

22

11

119

9

1.032

11.35

122.79

Zach Miller

TE

25

14

119

9

1.028

14.39

122.33

James Jones

WR

39

23

293

13

1.023

23.53

299.76

Randy McMichael

TE

32

17

209

12

1.019

17.32

212.92

Reggie Kelly

TE

13

8

111

4

1.015

8.12

112.71

Greg Jennings

WR

28

14

228

11

1.011

14.15

230.44

David Patten

WR

29

15

231

11

1.010

15.16

233.39

Arnaz Battle

WR

39

21

216

14

1.005

21.11

217.11

Vernon Davis

TE

21

12

105

7

1.005

12.06

105.50

Jeb Putzier

TE

9

5

34

3

0.989

4.94

33.62

Isaac Bruce

WR

31

17

255

10

0.968

16.45

246.77

Hines Ward

WR

30

16

186

10

0.967

15.47

179.80

Hank Baskett

WR

8

5

55

2

0.950

4.75

52.25

Steve Smith

WR

7

4

26

2

0.943

3.77

24.51

Mark Clayton

WR

33

18

153

10

0.939

16.91

143.73

Malcom Floyd

WR

13

7

97

4

0.938

6.57

91.03

Keary Colbert

WR

31

16

205

10

0.935

14.97

191.77

Billy Miller

TE

6

3

33

2

0.933

2.80

30.80

Darrell Jackson

WR

39

18

216

14

0.928

16.71

200.49

Demetrius Williams

WR

42

19

285

15

0.917

17.42

261.25

Jerramy Stevens

TE

8

6

33

1

0.913

5.48

30.11

Rashied Davis

WR

19

12

81

4

0.905

10.86

73.33

Nate Burleson

WR

47

20

248

17

0.896

17.91

222.14

Jeff Webb

WR

23

14

159

5

0.891

12.48

141.72

Bobby Wade

WR

36

19

226

10

0.889

16.89

200.89

Jerry Porter

WR

27

11

231

10

0.889

9.78

205.33

Devery Henderson

WR

22

9

183

8

0.882

7.94

161.37

Marty Booker

WR

49

23

274

15

0.867

19.95

237.65

Chris Chambers

WR

66

31

415

20

0.864

26.77

358.41

Craig Davis

WR

18

9

84

5

0.861

7.75

72.33

Brandon Manumaleuna

TE

5

3

22

1

0.860

2.58

18.92

Bubba Franks

TE

27

14

90

7

0.856

11.98

77.00

Muhsin Muhammad

WR

42

17

225

14

0.838

14.25

188.57

Reggie Brown

WR

36

17

214

10

0.833

14.17

178.33

Ted Ginn

WR

15

6

120

5

0.833

5.00

100.00

Laurent Robinson

WR

30

15

151

7

0.803

12.05

121.30

Nate Washington

WR

18

9

144

4

0.789

7.10

113.60

Troy Williamson

WR

23

9

159

7

0.787

7.08

125.13

Santana Moss

WR

33

14

207

9

0.779

10.90

161.21

Taylor Jacobs

WR

9

3

40

3

0.767

2.30

30.67

Antonio Chatman

WR

10

5

47

2

0.760

3.80

35.72

Chris Davis

WR

7

4

31

1

0.757

3.03

23.47

Lee Evans

WR

38

17

211

9

0.755

12.84

159.36

Terrance Copper

WR

6

3

29

1

0.717

2.15

20.78

Joe Horn

WR

36

14

142

9

0.714

9.99

101.37

Matt Jones

WR

15

8

74

2

0.707

5.65

52.29

L.J. Smith

TE

9

5

34

1

0.700

3.50

23.80

Ben Obomanu

WR

20

6

110

6

0.690

4.14

75.90

Sinorice Moss

WR

13

6

46

2

0.662

3.97

30.43

Mark Bradley

WR

5

2

26

1

0.660

1.32

17.16

Drew Bennett

WR

26

8

94

7

0.658

5.26

61.82

Kris Wilson

TE

25

11

109

4

0.648

7.13

70.63

Dante Hall

WR

11

4

27

2

0.600

2.40

16.20

Mike Williams

WR

15

5

70

3

0.593

2.97

41.53

Justin McCareins

WR

12

3

31

3

0.575

1.73

17.83

Sean Morey

WR

8

2

23

2

0.575

1.15

13.23

John Broussard

WR

8

2

55

2

0.575

1.15

31.63

Robert Ferguson

WR

16

5

44

3

0.556

2.78

24.48

Delanie Walker

TE

13

5

30

1

0.485

2.42

14.54

Steve Heiden

TE

13

5

41

1

0.485

2.42

19.87

Ashley Lelie

WR

7

2

52

1

0.471

0.94

24.51

Tab Perry

WR

5

1

7

1

0.460

0.46

3.22

James Thrash

WR

8

3

16

0

0.375

1.13

6.00

Michael Matthews

TE

9

3

16

0

0.333

1.00

5.33

Jim Kleinsasser

TE

5

1

4

0

0.200

0.20

0.80

Brandon Lloyd

WR

7

1

9

0

0.143

0.14

1.29

About Fantasy Sharks

FantasySharks.com began in 2003, disseminating fantasy football content on the web for free. It is, or has been, home to some of the most talented and best known fantasy writers on the planet. Owned and operated by Tony Holm (5 time Fantasy Sports Writer Association Hall-of-Fame nominee,) Tony started writing fantasy content in 1993 for the only three fantasy football web sites in existence at the time.