Initially built by NASA to set lines for the Las Vegas casinos in the late 50’s (who do you think funded the Apollo missions? The government? It was the mob…), The Sin City Betbot 6000 calculated lines for over 30 years. The Betbot was given various upgrades through the years, not always with the best equipment, but he was very good at setting lines, and living the good life.
The Betbot was de-commissioned in 1990 after San Francisco destroyed Denver in the Super Bowl. The 45 point spread simply fried a number of the Betbot’s wires and he retired. The Betbot was discovered by Fantasysharks.com and retooled to give fantasy advice. He lives now to help your team with deeper sleepers to start each week.
The Betbot’s column is transcribed each week by Joe Petrizzi and Tom Walls, because, “Typing is a dame’s BZZZT job.”
Need more BetBot? Try a daily dose of BetBot at http://blog.sincitybetbot.com and look for other content, including weekly NFL picks, on http://www.sincitybetbot.com.
This week I read in some fantasy football expert column that Matt Leinart and Musa Smith would make nice waiver pickups. Yeah, now that everyone knows and you’ll have to …BZT… blow a ton of free agent bucks on them – that’s great timing, genius. Regular readers of this column picked these guys up weeks ago when I started touting them, and they picked these guys up cheap. I repeat once again: ignore me at your own risk.
Now, I mentioned on my website about my latest paternity scandal, and I just wanted to say a few words to clear up any confusion. I am not the father of Anna Nicole Smith’s daughter, and was only helping out an old friend by acknowledging paternity so she didn’t have to deal with the scandal of having her attorney’s child. Anna Nicole may not have the best reputation, but she’s a good woman. A good bleepin’ woman. Not that long ago you may recall that I was in the …BZZT… throes of a deep, dark depression. Tony Sacca and Gin were my only friends, and I was paying the bills by working on special effects for low budget direct-to-video movies. Well, long story short, I met Ms. Smith on the set of Skyscraper and we hit it off. Turns out we’re both fans of former Roxy Music front man Bryan Ferry, which I found to be amazing. It’s not everyday you find a woman who’s willing to discuss ‘70s English art rock mere minutes after a soft core porn scene, but people surprise. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Ms. Smith was instrumental in my recovery and we remain close friends to this day. But we would never cross that line, so I know that her baby is not mine, I don’t care what the doctors say. I can tell you this in good faith, readers.
On to the latest deeper sleepers:
QB – Andrew Walter – OAK – You will not find one guru out there that is going to recommend picking up a player on the Raiders. Not only are they in compete disarray on the field, the latest reports have star WR Randy Moss showing a lack of interest and basically acting like a hippie stoner. Of course you love life, Randy. You get paid a fortune and you don’t have to do a bleeping thing. That’s good work, if you can get it. But I digress – the way this season is going you can just about forget Aaron Brooks seeing the field again. The Raiders are going to want to see what they have in young Andrew here and that means lots of playing time. And even though it looks like he’s not going to do squat with that playing time, you can’t discount the fact that he DOES have Moss on his team, and that makes him an interesting fantasy prospect. No matter how bad they look now, teams have a way of turning situations like this around – at some point pride takes over. Or at least an easy schedule provides a nice venue for them to show off their skills, I don’t know. With SF up this week and ARI in 2 weeks time, keep an eye on Walter.
RB – Vernand Morency – GB – Yeah, he’s on a number of radars after putting in 100+ total yards in prime time last week. But here’s another reminder that Ahman Green is oft-injured and isn’t the future at RB for the Packers. By the time Green Bay is competitive again, Green is going to be long gone. And it’s not going to take much to convince the coaching staff that Morency should get the lion’s share of the carries while Green Bay plays out the string. Morency is the type of guy you should already have on your roster, but if you don’t, start working on a way to get him thrown in on a trade – he’s not worth …BZZZT… breaking a deal, but he’s a nice little back to have in your pocket.
Now, Morency is teaching you a lesson as we speak, but there are other, similar players that are still hiding on your waiver wire. Leon Washington may not look like a sexy backup to have on the roster, what with the gazillion RBs on the Jets. But he’s a rookie on a team that’s going to be evaluating rookies by the time December rolls around. And it’s not like he’s behind Walter Payton over there – he’ll continue to see 5-10 touches a game in the current rotation. Guys like this surprise down the stretch of every fantasy season – consider this an early Christmas present (New York plays the Miami “our defense fades like blue jeans” Dolphins on 12/25).
If you’re looking for someone on a better team, why not grab Ryan Moats? Brian Westbrook has a mysterious knee injury that may or may not require surgery this season to clean up. Now, should that happen, do you really think the Eagles are going to throw everything onto Correll Buckhalter’s shoulders? Forget the fact that he’s had more knee surgeries than he has knees – this guy just fumbled the ball twice inside the 5 yard line on national television. If and when Westbrook takes a few weeks off to clear up his funky knee, Moats is going to get a lot of opportunities in one of the NFL’s better offenses. Don’t wait for it to happen before stashing him away.
To read the WR and TE write ups, you may want to check out my Sin City Betbot 6000 Receiver Confidence Index, as I’ll be referring to it going forward. I’ll often refer to a receiver’s CI score as a triplet of numbers – his raw CI number, his receptions weighted by CI, and his yards weighted by CI. For example, Andre Johnson’s CI score is 1.44/43.2/590.
WR – Greg Lewis – PHI – An interesting philosophical question – is Lewis really a deeper sleeper after a 2 TD performance? Yes, I think he still qualifies, simply because a lot of you may not know about the Eagles immediate concerns at WR. Donte Stallworth and Reggie Brown both appear on this week’s injury report. Stallworth is doubtful and Brown is questionable.
Lewis is a good pickup because of this, but also because he’s a dependable target for McNabb. Lewis is currently ranked 12th based solely on the un-weighted Confidence Index, with a score of 1.617. The average score for all receivers is 1.099. Now, Lewis has only 9 receptions, but has only been targeted 12 times, and 8 of his receptions have resulted in a touchdown or first down.
Lewis is a fine start for this week, playing in place of Stallworth, or as a 3rd WR. Dallas will put up some points against a very injured Philadelphia secondary. The Eagles can score points, but have…BZT… trouble with 3-4 teams historically. I expect the Eagles to spread the field a lot and attack the Cowboys and their sketchy secondary similar to how the Packers first (successfully) attacked the Eagles with a lot of quick passes. Lewis will be on the field plenty Sunday, whether it’s as a WR2 or WR3 – expect him to see some action.
WR – Wes Welker – MIA – No one likes how much Daunte Culpepper is stinking it up. Believe me, his performance is almost as bad as one of Lenny Bruce’s last paranoia-filled, drug-fueled stand up performances. You paid your money so you have to watch, but feel like retching and crying afterwards. Trader Nick Saban’s numerous free agent gambles haven’t paid off so far, but Wes Welker is a nice little story. Welker is a …BZT… special team’s ace, so if you’re in a league where you get points for return yards, this guy is long gone, but he’s probably around in most leagues.
Welker ranks 32nd overall in CI Yards this week and he’s running with a 1.09/19.7/242 CI score. Simply put, Welker is a guy Culpepper can trust. And when you’re making fans vomit, you need all the help you can get. In deeper leagues, Welker is definitely worth a pick up. If you have to start 3 or more WRs and are hurting now, start Welker right away vs. the Pats. The Pats are starting to look good again, but do give up passing yards, they rank 22nd against the pass this year.
So long for now, and remember “Showgirls and gin my friends, showgirls and …BZT…gin.”
If you have any questions for the Betbot, please contact Tom Walls at firstname.lastname@example.org – also, check out