Target Conversion for Wide Receivers in this edition of Audibles
The latest Target Conversion numbers are in and you will be shocked as to who the top dogs are …
Targets are not the end all be all, but it does give you an indication as to who is getting the ball often. A fantasy football owner’s biggest concern is whether or not a player is getting the opportunities. These stats do not reflect how well the ball was thrown, just if the receiver was targeted against number of passes caught. Based on the data, I’d say Arizona is missing steady quarterback play. Is Max Hall the answer?
The play of Kyle Orton has been pretty darn good to this point, which is surprising. Denver has three on this list, proving that spreading the ball around sustains drives and creates more opportunities. The lack of a running game in Denver has forced the team to throw often.
These are the top targeted wide receivers and conversion percentage.
minimum 45 targets)
1. Austin Collie (Indianapolis) – Converted 44-of-54 = 81.4 percent
2. Wes Welker (New England) – Converted 33-of-45 = 73.3 percent
3. Miles Austin (Dallas) – Converted 33-of-46 = 71.7 percent
4. Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis) – Converted 45-of-65 = 69.2 percent
5. Jabar Gaffney (Denver) – Converted 37-of-53= 69.8 percent
6. Eddie Royal (Denver) – Converted 32-of-47 = 68.1 percent
7. Santana Moss (Washington) – Converted 37-of-55 = 67.2 percent
8. Anquan Boldin (Baltimore) – Converted 32-of-48 = 66.6 percent
8. Marques Colston (New Orleans) – Converted 30-of-45= 66.6 percent
10. Danny Amendola (St. Louis) – Converted 36-of-55= 65.5 percent
11. Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants) – Converted 36-of-57 = 63.2 percent
12. Roddy White (Atlanta) – Converted 43-of-69 = 62.3 percent
13. Brandon Marshall (Miami) – Converted 37-of-62= 59.7 percent
14. Andre Johnson (Houston) – Converted 32-of-55= 58.2 percent
15. Chad Ochocinco (Cincinnati) – Converted 26-of-45= 57.7 percent
16. Michael Crabtree (San Francisco) – Converted 24-of-45= 53.3 percent
17. Brandon Lloyd (Denver) – Converted 34-of-64 =53.1 percent
18. Calvin Johnson (Detroit) – Converted 29-of-55 = 52.7 percent
19. Terrell Owens (Cincinnati) – Converted 31-of-60 = 51.7 percent
20. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) – Converted 26-of-54=48.1 percent
Figures don’t lie, but liars figure, folks! Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, Danny Amendola, Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal were all lower tier receivers compared to the likes of the other names on the list. They are the draft day values to this point, but will it continue?
I expect some of these trends to change going forward as teams switch gears and defenses watch tape of primary receivers. I expect to see one superstar in particular, Randy Moss, to be among the top targets down the stretch as he gets acclimated in Minnesota. The 81.4 percent conversion rate of Austin Collie is jaw-dropping. I expect him to be involved less as Anthony Gonzalez returns to the field in two weeks. Peyton Manning has pretty special chemistry with Gonzalez.
Thanks for the read folks! May you consider your next wide receiver starts based on targets and conversion percentage. While it won’t help you predict fantasy points for the week, it is an important thing to consider. Last week I was extremely disappointed with Greg Olsen, who I should not have started since the play of Jay Cutler has been erratic and Mike Martz is an idiot. I expect Cutler will fall out of favor and get shipped off with Martz at some point. Look at the long history of the revolving door for Chicago quarterbacks.
Had I considered the targets and conversion percentage of Olsen (15-of-27, 55 percent), I would have gone with Aaron Hernandez (22-of-26, 84.6 percent) and faired three points better for the week. My hindsight is 20/40 with a slight astigmatism.
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