Monday - Feb 18, 2019

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TRADE SCHOOL: Week 5

Why do you make trades? No seriously, I’m asking. I know why I make trades but I often wonder what the motivation is behind some of the trade questions I see each week. That’s the key word – motivation. Its a fancy way of saying “why?” Why do I want to trade this player? Why am I trying to get that player? And most important of all – why would the other owner accept this offer? Your motivation for making an offer is important but it is arguably more important to understand why the other owner would be motivated to do business with you. Many people will say “nonsense! it’s my team and my team is the most important part of the equation!” I’d venture to guess these are the same people who tweet at athletes after they have a poor outing on Sunday. The fact is they’re not completely wrong in their thinking but I can say without a shadow of a doubt, that if the other owner isn’t motivated to make a move, the deal won’t happen.

So it’s not rocket science to understand that there needs to be a reason for the other owner to want to make the deal but that’s only part of the equation. If you want your trade offer to be accepted I’d advise making the reason they should accept the offer so blatantly obvious that it cannot be missed. As always, this strategy varies from league to league. For instance, If I’m making a trade offer in an industry (writers) league, it’s a lot easier selling upside players like Joe Mixon or Derrick Henry than it would be in your office league. Conversely, those sort of players don’t carry nearly the same weight in the league I play with my college buddies, who sometimes forget to set their lineups. The point is, there needs to be a clear gain for the other party involved. You may know why you’re offering the trade but the other guy may not have a clue.

So where am I going with this? Last week we took a look at some of the types of owners you should target for trade talks. There is a chance you may not have been successful in hashing out a deal with them last week but let’s go back to the well in Week 5. While we’re at said well, let’s look and see if any of those owners are in a worse spot this week. More specifically, lets see if we can identify owners who are desperate for a win and have been relying on a player from any of the following teams – Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans or Washington. These are the teams on bye in Week 5 and they are all loaded with fantasy potential. If you can find an owner who needs to win now and can’t afford to absorb this bye week, you may be able to present them with a damn good reason to strike a deal with you!

So it all depends on the specific situation. but here are a some players from each of the bye week teams I’ll be targeting in my Week 5 trade negotiations:

Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Of course we’d all love to get Devonta Freeman but that’s a much bigger fish to land and would likely require a price we aren’t willing to pay. Coleman, on the other hand, is far more attainable at a much better price. He was heavily involved this past Sunday due in large part to the loss of Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu (Jones should be OK for Week 6 but Sanu will miss some time). Once the team’s top two wideouts left the game Coleman led the passing attack, hauling in four receptions for a team-high 65 yards on six targets. He also did well with his rush attempts, outperforming Freeman with 79 yards on nine carries. There is a good chance the other owner may view Coleman as a bit of a sell high after this performance and could be willing to strike a deal. As always don’t overpay but if you land Coleman you could be getting Atlanta’s immediate solution to its receiving corps injuries as well as an elite handcuff-ish running back with standalone value. If anything happens to Freeman you’ll be sitting on gold mine. But if not, you’ll still have a very nice flex with upside!

C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos

Anderson didn’t have a great game this past week but after seeing him get outperformed in Week 3 by Jamaal Charles it was encouraging to see him get the lion’s share in Week 4, out-touching Charles 24-6. He’s failed to hit pay dirt in three out of four contests so far in 2017 so his price should be reasonable in most leagues. Make no mistake, he is an integral part of this offense and we’ve seen him go off once already this year. These are the kind of backs people are willing to deal, not their studs. They are also the kind of backs who can help you win your league assuming he can stay healthy down the stretch. Landing Anderson would likely require an offer involving a running back with a great Week 5 matchup. Don’t forget, you need to sell the fact that you are helping this other owner win now!

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans backfield has been a mess for fantasy purposes this year but Ingram has been the most consistent piece of that mess. I haven’t seen the Week 4 snap count but through three weeks Ingram was leading the pack with 90 snaps compared to 65 for Alvin Kamara and 39 for Adrian Peterson. Kamara had a nice outing in Week 4 mostly via the passing game but Ingram once again led the rushing attack. Coming out of the bye, New Orleans faces Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago and Tampa Bay – all but Chicago ranks in the Bottom 12 in average fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. He’s not an overly enticing name in fantasy circles these days but Ingram has consistent value and could be in line for a very nice four-game stretch coming off the bye. He’s under the radar for now but that will all change after the bye.

Chris Thompson, RB, Washington Redskins

I’m having a hard time trusting Washington receivers these days and for good reason. The same can be said for the running back corps with Rob Kelley unable to stay on the field and Samaje Perine looking as rookie-like as he can each week. The outlier in this equation is Chris Thompson. He looks electric out there and is a prime sell high candidate for many after a monster Week 3 outing. While his lackluster Week 4 performance certainly leaves something to be desired, it makes him much more attainable in trades this week for those who failed to cash in and sell high after Week 3. Coach Jay Gruden will eventually wise up and realize he is the most dynamic playmaker on his roster and start feeding him the ball. Rob Kelley is just a guy and Perine doesn’t appear ready based on the game film I’ve seen. Thompson isn’t the kind of guy you want to or need to be counting on week-in and week-out but he’s among the league’s highest upside flexes and should be available at a reasonable price coming off an underwhelming Week 4 performance. No disrespect to Jordan Reed, but of all the players in Washington, Thompson is the one I want the most shares of right now.

Best of luck in Week 5! Hit me up on Twitter @tradefantasy with your trade questions!

About David Olivarez

David has been writing fantasy football content steadily since 2012 on the web and has been a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association since 2014. He focuses on Daily Fantasy Sports and Trade Analysis. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter!