Well the preseason is over, and a lot of you have already drafted many times and may have one last draft before the season starts. I’m just going to throw out some general thoughts on some of the players and teams this year. I am going to eat crow on some of my earlier picks, and admit I may have been wrong. I watched pretty much every preseason game that was played, especially taking note of the third one since that is the so-called “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. A lot of these thoughts are based on those games. I’ll go by divisions and make comments on each team, picking how they will finish along with some bust and breakout fantasy players. I know the old saying about opinions ….. but here in the pigpen we all stink, and we love it.
Ben looks good, but don’t know if I would count on the passing numbers from last year. I think they run the ball a little more this year. Willie is being undervalued in my opinion; he will still get the lions share of the carries. Put me in the group that thinks Holmes is in for a breakout year. Ward is still a nice player and would be a good WR3. Not sold on Miller as a TE1. Defense should be a solid DEF1 this year. The Steelers have the best combination of offense/defense in the conference, and that’s why they win the conference. If they get ahead, they can grind it out, and play good defense for the win. If they get behind, they are explosive enough on offense to get back in the game.
Not sold on
Palmer will be good, but they better start blocking better for him. The RB situation is up in the air. I think Perry is the most talented and wins out. He could be a steal late in the draft. TJ and CJ will be ready when the season starts. TJ will be more consistent, because
The QB situation is a mess. Smith is the best leader. Boller probably gives the best chance to win now, but is injured. Flacco probably has the most talent, but lacks any experience. I did not like how he looked the in the pocket. McGahee is being taken too high in drafts for a guy that is coming of recent knee problems. He will be the man when he is totally healthy. Rice has looked very good as his replacement. He is a must draft if you get Willis. I don’t like any of the WR crew because of the QB situation. Mason and Clayton hold the most value. Mason is a marginal WR3 in my book. Heap is a boom or bust pick. He hasn’t played, but has been good in the past. If you take him, make sure you get another solid TE to go with him. The Ravens defense is aging but still solid. It will keep them in most games, and that will help any young QB. I still consider them a DEF1 in most leagues.
Bust: Derek Anderson doesn’t finish the season as a QB1 (Top 12)
Breakout: If McGahee can’t get healthy, Ray Rice will be the man.
Brady will not have a year as good as last year, but is still the No. 1 fantasy QB. The RB situation is up in the air. Maroney has the talent, but just won’t be given the opportunities. Moss is still the top WR, Welker will be solid again in PPR. They will come out throwing just like always. They have a history of staying on the gas pedal even when they are up a lot. Watson may end up picking up some of the slack of losing Stallworth, so he is a nice late-round TE. The Pats defense is getting old, and they have lost a few people. They seem to always plug in someone and keep producing … still a good fantasy defense.
Favre has a chip on his shoulder and will be a QB1 at the end of the year. T. Jones has been getting a lot of pimping, but
Not sold on Edwards yet; I think he can manage the game fine, but just not going to win games for you if they get behind. Lynch will be the man; he will be on the field a lot. Evans needs someone to step up across from him. Hardy might be that guy. Evans, right now, is too inconsistent for me to count on as a WR2, good WR3. Robert Royal has played well in the preseason. They seem committed in getting the TE involved. Might be a nice late-round guy or bye week filler. Fantastic special teams with McGee and McKelvin back receiving kicks.
Pennington will be solid, and be a decent QB2. He is good enough to keep them in games, and a coach on the field. Williams is a steal right now; he looks like he is on a mission. He may be older, but still has some mileage left on those legs. He is running hard and fast. Brown is still a question mark to me. He did look quick in the last preseason game. Give me Ricky in the 9th verses Brown in round four. If
Peyton will be fine, but the loss of Saturday is what worries me. I see Peyton getting hit a lot this year, much more than in the past. He will still be good, just not as good as in the past. Brees, Romo, Palmer and McNabb could finish ahead of him. Addai will get lots of work, with more pressure being put on Manning. I see the Wayne/Harrison deal going back to like it was when
Garrard is a trendy pick right now for those owners that like to wait on QB. He is the key to the whole team. MJD and Freddie should be solid again; RB2 and RB3 in my book. Someone has got to step up at WR for them to get over the hump. Porter may be the answer if he can get healthy. Their defense and run game keep them in games. If they can get some pressure on Manning, this might be the year they over take them. Ok, maybe not.
Young has not looked good in preseason. He will never be your prototypical QB. He is just not an accurate enough passer. He wins games with his legs. I’m backing off on my stance on him being a QB1. He may indeed finish that way, but will be very inconsistent. White looks like a bull when he runs and will be a solid RB2; I also like Chris Johnson in PPR leagues as a RB3. He may be little, but he runs hard and is very fast.
Schaub is going to be the second best fantasy QB in the division. They have a better passing attack than
Bust: Andre Johnson will not finish Top 12
Breakout: Owen Daniels will finish Top 8.
Rivers is another underrated QB, who would be great in a QBBC. He is a winner and has some weapons to throw the ball too. LT is LT, period. Sproles has been impressive also. I think Chambers and Rivers just get better together. He is a nice pick in round seven. Gates will be fine; Top 3 guy. A solid fantasy defense, even with Merriman’s knee problems.
Cutler is my breakout QB this year. I see him being a Top 8 guy or better. It helps that
Hate the QB situation in KC. Don’t think Croyle has it. LJ will be solid and is slightly undervalued in my mind. Don’t like Bowe to have the same year as last year, especially with Croyle throwing the ball. Same for Gonzo; he will be solid, but Croyle brings him down also. Young aggressive defense has potential, but the loss of defensive end Allen hurts.
Russell will have some big games, but be very inconsistent. I love McFadden; he just has it in my book. He runs hard and is fast. Could put up RB1 numbers in a PPR league. I have been down on
Bust: Bowe won’t repeat last year’s performance
Breakout: McFadden will be all that