A positive week last week. Let’s examine in detail
AZ +10.5 @ St. Louis: If AZ can beat GB, maybe they can just keep it close enough to win here. Blake is making some gutsy plays AZ +10.5 ** Also, play the Over 44.5**
Well, the ‘box’ theory worked just enough to save us. The box theory says when there is a high pointspread, place two single bets, one bet on the dog, and one on the over as high point spread favorites rarely cover in an under (Unless Defense is one of their strengths (Not with the Rams). Therefore, you have a situation, where you are unlikely to lose both bets, but there is a decent chance of winning both bets. In this case, I lost my juice. No biggie, I’d rather gamble 10% to make 200% anyday, with a minimal chance to lose big.
Dallas +3 @ Jets: Parcells guys will be ready, Jets are in trouble, but 0-3 teams are desparate… Dallas +3 *
Dallas had control of this game all the way. The bounces even went our way, as Curtis Martin even fumbled once.
Plays for week 5
Indy +4.5 @ Tampa: Monday Night game of the week. Yep, Tampa lost at home two weeks ago to Carolina. Yep, Tampa lost on Monday Night badly against the power running Steelers last year on Monday night. Yep, Peyton Manning threw 6 TD’s last week. Yep, Indy is undefeated. Yep, Home Teams are 1-3 straight up (and ATS) on Monday night this year. Yep, this is a reunion of sorts for Tony Dungy and his old players.
Folks, this is the easiest game on a tough week on the board. Tampa will win and cover. Jon Gruden had an EXTRA week off to plan for Peyton and his play calling. Also, Gruden knows how to beat Peyton Manning from his time with the Raiders. Pittman is running like a madman (or is it driving like a madman all over his wife?). Sapp and Keyshawn love the Monday Night spotlight. Other than Tenn in a bad spot on the road, Indy hasn’t played a quality team yet. However, the Bucs have destroyed Philly, Atlanta, and overlooked Carolina. Lay the points. Tampa –4.5
Seattle +2.5 @ Green Bay. Would be nice to get a Field Goal, but 2.5 points works for me. Seattle is rested, coming off a bye, GB is tired coming off a Monday Night dominating win. The Seattle QB Hasselback used to back up Brett Favre and I’m SURE wants to show him that he can throw the rock. Favre’s old coach knows how to get under his skin too. This should be a close game, so take the points. Seattle +2.5
San Diego +3 @ Jacksonville. Yes, Byron Leftwich looked good last week, but now, with some film to go off of, there will be some chinks in his armor. San Diego is headed to a bye without a win, and should play their hearts out here. I like to bet against teams with a rookie QB on their second game. It’s a wake up call as the other teams see how the coach used (plays called) for the rook. Look for San Diego to win this straight up. David Boston scored a TD, and everyone kisses and makes up in San Diego. San Diego +3
Washington +5.5 @ Philly. Washington has been in every game so far, and lost by less than a Field Goal in each. Time for a blowout (loss). Philly is ready to roll, and Andy Reid will have his troops ready for this game. Philly –5.5
Use 2 on the +3, and one unit on Seattle straight up
San Diego +3
Use 2 on the +3, and one unit on SD straight up
A couple decent sized plays this week. Hey, and I did I tell you I did well on the Twinkies the other night against the Yanks!