Tuesday - Feb 19, 2019

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Week 11 The Dive: “Home, Not So Sweet, Home”

What happened to home-field advantage? It seemed to be more of a disadvantage in Week 10 as road teams went 11-3! Although it is unlikely to become a trend or fantasy relevant in the future, it was certainly a bizarre occurrence. Week 10 also set the NFL record for most offensive scoring plays of more than 75 yards. Generally, a few of these occur in a week and make the television highlight reel. However, six scoring plays of more than 75 yards were recorded and included fantasy studs like Adrian Peterson, Rob Gronkowski, Odell Beckham as well as rookie sensations Charcandrick West and Jeremy Langford.

With Week 10 in the books, let’s take a dive into Week 11. In most leagues, there are only three more weeks in the fantasy regular season, so finish the season strong!

QB Derek Carr

Much of Oakland’s success this season can be attributed to Derek Carr. Not only has Carr been a top-tier quarterback this season, but he’s also been a major contributor for fantasy football owners. In fact, Carr has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven of his last eight starts and surpassed 300 passing yards in five games. Initially fantasy owners grabbed Carr as a backup quarterback or bye week fill-in, but he is playing as well or better than many of the highest drafted quarterbacks this season. He can be confidently started in Week 11 against Detroit, who has allowed the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks, including two touchdowns allowed in each of the last three games.

Week 11 Projection: 275 passing yards, 2 passing TD

 

RB Jay Ajayi

The Miami rookie running back has quickly made an impression on the fantasy radar. Although he is not a must-start, he appears to not only be a handcuff to starter Lamar Miller but is also cutting into his workload. In the last two games, Ajayi has averaged 8.0 yards per carry and will likely continue to earn more carries throughout the season. Although he is not part of a running back committee per se, Ajayi may be on the brink of an explosive breakout performance. With an attractive matchup at home in Week 11 against Dallas, who has surrendered the third-most points to opposing backs, look for an even bigger performance from Ajayi. He should be considered an RB3 or flex start with high upside.

Week 11 Projection: 75 total yards, TD

 

WR Danny Amendola

Amendola has been all over the map this season in terms of productivity, especially since Tom Brady spreads the ball to all of his receivers. With Brady’s favorite target Julian Edelman likely finished for the remainder of the regular season, Amendola will join Brandon LaFell and Rob Gronkowski as Brady’s prime receiving corps. He may also see a few more targets due to running back Dion Lewis being done for the season. In Week 10, Amendola caught 10-of-11 targets, including a few clutch passes to extend the game and help New England keep its perfect season intact. In fact, Brady stated “He’s a great player for us, and he always comes up big when we need him.” With the support of his Hall of Fame quarterback, Amendola should thrive for the remainder of the season including in his Week 11 matchup at home against Buffalo, who has given up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Although he only earned 29 receiving yards in their Week 2 matchup, look for Amendola to rebound as a high WR3 or flex start this weekend.

Week 11 Projection: 100 receiving yards, TD

 

TE Clive Walford

TE_Clive_Walford_OAK_1
Oakland TE Clive Walford.

Are you scratching your head unable to recognize this name? Well, Walford isn’t exactly having the breakout seasons of Tyler Eifert or Gary Barnidge, but has become fantasy relevant. In fact, Walford has quietly caught three scores over the last four games. Unfortunately, his season high is a mere 43 receiving yards. The rookie tight end should see more looks and potentially catch another touchdown in Week 11 when Oakland visits Detroit. Detroit has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including four touchdowns over the last three games. Walford should be viewed as a TE3 with decent upside for this weekend.

Week 11 Projection: 50 receiving yards, TD

 

Defense/Special Teams – Chicago Bears

Chicago used to be of the most feared defenses, but has been more of a “tame cub” over the last few seasons. However, Chicago has heated up over the last two weeks on the road with three sacks, two fumble recoveries, an interception and averaged only 13 points allowed. Chicago welcomes the suddenly offensively inept Denver Broncos to Soldier Field. Denver’s offense will be led by Brock Osweiler along with a mediocre ground attack. Pick up Chicago if your defense has a tough matchup or is on bye this week.

Week 11 Projection: 11 points

 

Week 10 Results:

QB Blake Bortles

Week 10 Projection: 250 passing yards, 2 TD

Week 10 Results: 188 passing yards, 25 rushing yards, 2 TD, INT (good call)

RB Darren McFadden

Week 10 Projection: 125 total yards, TD

Week 10 Results: 58 total yards (bad call)

WR Rishard Matthews

Week 10 Projection: 80 receiving yards, TD

Week 10 Results: 97 total yards (good call)

TE Delanie Walker

Week 10 Projection: 60 receiving yards, TD

Week 10 Results: 52 receiving yards (OK call)

Defense/Special Teams – Green Bay Packers

Week 10 Projection: 12 points

Week 10 Results: 3 points (bad call)

Good luck in Week 11!

About Marc Griffis

Marc Griffis has competed in fantasy football, baseball, and basketball leagues since 2005. Marc has written "The Dive" for Fantasy Sharks since 2010. Additionally, his expertise is featured in David Gonos' E-books "101 Fantasy Baseball Tips" and "101 Fantasy Football Tips". Lastly, Marc competed in the Fantasy Sports Trade Association SiriusXM Fantasy Baseball experts' league from 2012-2014.