Week 15: Win or Go Home!

 

Welcome to the 2008 playoffs edition of the Brew Crew Corner. It’s playoff time for everyone and it doesn’t get any better for fantasy owners than this. It’s simple: play your best lineup. If you win, you move on to the next round. If you lose, your season is done and it’s on to next year’s draft. You’re not looking to finish the season this week. Your set to make a run at the championship and you need to take every advantage you can. Last week I salvaged a potential disaster season in my first money league. I started the season 1-5, the worst record in the league and almost certain to miss the playoffs for the first time. I made some adjustments and won six of the next eight games to win my division and secure the No. 2 seed in my conference.

Once you are in the playoffs, it doesn’t matter how you started or if you’re matched up in the first round with a team that blew you out by 50 points. All that matters now is that you prepare for the game this week. Pay special attention to updates on your players and monitor your opponent’s players. Pick up last-minute players such as backup RBs that may start or kickers playing in better weather conditions. Most leagues have frozen rosters prior to the playoffs but if they haven’t, you need to continue to look through the waiver wire. There are a lot of owners out there that get lazy during this time of year because they feel they have the players that got them into the playoffs but fail to realize that they should always try to improve your team every week.

Player Spotlight: Darren McFadden, RB, OAK

McFadden was one of the hot rookie RB prospects entering the 2008. After all, last year, Adrian Peterson ran for 1341 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie, so many owners had high expectations for McFadden. He was very productive in college as he is second all-time in career rushing yards in the SEC behind only Herschel Walker of

Georgia (5,259), and is seventh for the SEC career record touchdowns with 40. In 2007, he had 1,829 RuYDs and 16 RuTDs, plus he has thrown four TDs, and had one ReTD.

In the 2008 fantasy draft, he was selected as the first rookie RB taken on average and the 20th RB selected overall. I felt he went too early in most leagues. Through 14 weeks, McFadden is seventh among rookies in RuYDs. He’s averaging just 10 FPTs per game with just 40.5 RuYDs per game. To put that into perspective, look at Peyton Hillis, another Arkansas RB had just 62 RuYDs less with two more TDs than McFadden had all season. Toe injuries and the Raiders offense as a whole has limited his production.

Next year, the first sophomore RB taken will most likely be Chris Johnson with Matt Forte behind him. McFadden will most likely go after the first 15 overall RBs are taken. Right after that, RBs such as Ryan Grant or Thomas Jones will be selected about the third round. If he falls to the fourth round or later, he could be a steal if he breaks out in 2009.

Here are the Top 10 fantasy players over the past three weeks.

Top 10 QBs

Based on Shark League scoring

 

                                    

         

RANK

1. Aaron Rodgers, GBP

       

          2nd last week

2. Drew Brees, NOS   

                   

 4th last week

3. Matt Cassel, NEP   

        

          1st last week

4. Tony Romo, DAL   

         

          3rd last week

5. Jay Cutler, DEN   

          

          New

6. Matt Ryan, ATL    

            

         New

7.

Chad Pennington, MIA    

   

         New

8. Kurt Warner, ARI   

        

          5th last week

9. Shaun Hill, SFO    

            

         8th last week

10. Philip Rivers, SDC   

      

          $New

Removed from list: Tyler Thigpen, KCC; Trent Edwards, BUF; Joe Flacco, BAL; Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

Top 10 RBs

Based on Shark League scoring

                                       

 

      

RANK

1. DeAngelo Williams, CAR  

           1st last week

2. Brian Westbrook, PHI   

  

          New

3. Matt Forte, CHI    

           

         5th last week

4. Thomas Jones, NYJ    

      

         2nd last week

5. Michael Turner, ATL    

      

        3rd last week

6. Steve Slaton, HOU     

      

         6th last week

7. Pierre Thomas, NOS   

    

          7th last week

8. Chris Johnson, TEN    

    

          New

9. Adrian Peterson, MIN    

    

         New

10. Ladainian Tomlinson, SDC  

      New

 

Removed from list: Marshawn Lynch, BUF; Peyton Hillis, DEN; Joseph Addai,

IND; Marion Barber, DAL

Top 10 WRs

Based on Shark League scoring

                                                 

RANK

1. Terrell Owens, DAL   

                3rd last week

2. Antonio Bryant, TBB   

               New

3. Steve Smith, CAR   

                  8th last week

4. Greg Jennings, GBP   

                2nd last week

5. Andre Johnson, HOU   

              7th last week

6. Isaac Bruce, SFO   

                  New

7. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI   

              4th last week

8. Brandon Marshall, DEN    

           New

9. Randy Moss, NEP   

                  6th last week

10. Wes Welker, NEP   

                 New

 

Removed from list: Anquan Boldin, ARI; Lance Moore, NOS; Mark Clayton, BAL; T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN  

Top 10 TEs

Based on Shark League scoring

                                                  

RANK

1. Tony Gonzalez, KCC   

               1st last week   

2.

John Carlson,

SEA   

                 5th last week

3. Jason Witten, DAL   

                 4th last week

4. Heath Miller, PIT   

                    New

5. Zach Miller, OAK   

                    7th last week

6. Jeremy Shockey, NOS   

            8th last week

7. Tony Scheffler, DEN   

               New

8. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN  

           New

9. Dustin Keller, NYJ   

                  2nd last week

10. Donald Lee, GBP   

                  6th last week

Removed from list: Chris Cooley, WAS; Jerramy Stevens, TBB; Martellus Bennett, DAL

Top 10 Ks

Based on Shark League scoring

                                                 

RANK

1. Nick Folk, DAL    

                     6th last week

2. Kris Brown, HOU   

                   5th last week

3. Rob Bironas, TEN   

                   1st last week

4. Ryan Longwell, MIN   

               New

5. Jeff Reed, PIT   

                      3rd last week

6. Garrett Hartley, NOS    

             New

7. Dan Carpenter, MIA   

               New

8. Stephen Gostkowski, NEP  

        New

9. John Carney, NYG   

                 New

10. Matt Stover, BAL    

                New

 

Removed from list: Phil Dawson, CLE; Mason Crosby, GBP; Josh Brown, STL; Matt Bryant, TBB; Adam Vinatieri, IND; Jeff Reed, PIT

Top 10 DEFs

Based on Shark League scoring

                                                 

RANK 

1. Ravens, BAL    

                        2nd last week

2. Steelers, PIT    

                       4th last week

3. Colts,

IND    

                           New

4. Vikings, MIN    

                        3rd last week

5. Cowboys, DAL   

                      5th last week

6. Buccaneers, TBB   

                   1st last week

7. Chargers, SDC    

                     New

8. Titans, TEN    

                         7th last week

9. Bills, BUF    

                            8th last week

10. Bears, CHI    

                         New

Removed from list: Giants, NYG; Eagles, PHI; Raiders, OAK 

The Golden Mug Awards

Awarded to the fantasy player that came through for their owners.

Antonio Bryant – 9 rec. for 200 ReYDs, 2 ReTDs. Joey Galloway is being phased out of the offense as Jon Gruden has indicated they have gone in a different direction. This leaves Bryant as the go-to-guy this season and he exploded for 200 yards and two scores. He could be a wild-card player that will help some owners win as underdogs.

DeAngelo Williams – 19 car. for 186 RuYDs, 2 RuTDs. Williams is making a habit of making the Golden Mug list which is something his owners are enjoying. Despite sharing carries, he is still playing at a high productive level. Great matchup this week at home against the Broncos.

Jonathan Stewart – 15 car. for 115 RuYDs, 2 RuTDs. Batman and Robin, stash and dash, or whatever you want to label this pair of RBs, it doesn’t matter as long as the points keep coming. Stewart may not have a chance to take the starting role this year, but he could make a case over the next set of games.

 

The Urinal Cake Awards

Awarded to the fantasy player that you would like to, well you know.

Darren McFadden – 1 car. for 0 YDs, and 2 rec. for 8 ReYDs. Three touches for the game is almost too much for an owner to take. After scoring two RuTDs two weeks ago against the Broncos, Run DMC couldn’t even jog against the Chargers.

Larry Johnson – 11 car for. 36 YDs. Just when you think Johnson is going to provide some scoring for you heading into the playoffs, he drops a dud like this and probably cost you a game. Just this year he put up close to 200 RuYDs and two RuTDs against the Broncos only to get shut down in their second meeting.

DeSean Jackson – 0 rec.

Jackson was targeted just three times, his lowest amount since Week 5 when he had 2 targets. With a tough matchup against the Giants, most owners would have kept him on the bench but for those owners searching for production could have been fooled by the 76 ReYDs and TD he had the week prior.

MATCHUPS

Unlike last week, this Thursday night game has some fire power and implications for playoff spots. This will have some good fantasy production on both sides getting the week started for some good fantasy playoff watching.

New Orleans

at

Chicago, 8:15pm – This game features the Saints who are always dangerous on offense. They are passing for 310.2 yards (first) per game but only rushing for 95.7 yards (27th) per game. On defense, they are allowing 231.2 PaYDs (26th) and 112.8 RuYDs (20th) per game with 20 PaTDs (25th) and 10 RuTDs (13th) allowed on the season. The Saints trail in the wildcard race by one game. The Bears are a game behind the Vikings in the division and put up 194.5 PaYDs (21st) and 113.5 RuTDs (13th) per game. On defense the Bears allow just 234.2 PaYDs (28th) and just 91.2 ReYDs (sixth) per game with 15 PaTDs (10th) and 13 RuTDs (20th) on the season.

The matchups I like this week for QBs:

Tyler Thigpen against the Chargers. If you’ve made it through to the playoffs and Thigpen has been your signal caller due to injuries, than you might to consider him over the final three weeks. He has had back to back subpar games, but his last three games are against the Chargers, Dolphins and Bengals. The Chargers are a team that gives up a ton of yards through the air as they allow 248.9 yards (30th) per game with 21 TDs allowed (28th). If he’s on your roster, you have to play the better matchups.

Aaron Rodgers against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville has definitely been one of the disappointing this year. Even though they have decent numbers through 14 games with just 204.9 PaYDs (13th) per game with 21 PaTDs (28th) allowed, the loss of Rashean Mathis will make them struggle more down the stretch. Rodgers is playing well this season and is the third-ranked QB in Shark Leagues this season, averaging 19.6 FTPs per game.

Kyle Orton against the Saints. Orton has played decent this season but he has only been the 19^th-ranked QB on the season with just 13.7 FTPs per game. He faces a Saints team that can help him boost those stats as they give up 231.1 PaYDs (26th) per game with 20 PaTDs allowed (25th).

The matchups I like this week for RBs:

Matt Forte against the Saints. The best rookie on the season has a tasty matchup this week on the Thursday night stage. Forte has been a top RB this season and is averaging 23 FTPs per game, just one FTP behind Brian Westbrook, who is the top RB through 14 weeks. He’s facing a Saints team that is allowing 112.8 RuYDs (20th) per game with 10 RuTDs allowed (13th).

Pierre Thomas against the Bears. I really feel this will be an all-around shootout of a game as the running game will be as productive as the passing game. Thomas had a great game last week rushing for over 100 yards and getting two scores, one rushing and one receiving. This week he has to compete with a healthier Reggie Bush but the fact is Thomas is the inside runner and will get opportunities to score. Throw in the possibilities of returning kicks and you may even get a cheap defensive TD if your league rewards return TDs. The Bears defense has played the run well as they give up 91.2 RuYDs (sixth) per game but have given up 13 RuTDs (20th) this season.

DeAngelo Williams against the Broncos. Williams and the

Carolina running game is hot, and that’s what you want playing in the playoffs: players playing well. It doesn’t matter if your RB had a four-TD game if he doesn’t produce during your playoffs. He faces the Broncos that have allowed 139.5 RuYDs (26th) per game with 17 RuTDs given up (26th).

The matchups I don’t like this week for QBs:

Kerry Collins against the Texans. I think the Titans get conservative this week after seeing Matt Schaub throw it all over the place last week. Collins has had some decent games but won’t be asked to put up big numbers. The Texans are allowing 214.9 PaYDs (18th) per game with 20 PaTDs (25th).

Brett Favre against the Bills. The Bills once looked like a contender in the division before dropping five of the past six games. However, they have played the pass well allowing just 203.1 YDs (11th) per game and just 13 TDs (fifth). Favre did not put up great numbers in Week 9 when he threw for just 201 PaYDs and one INT.

Matt Ryan against the Buccaneers. This will be a tough game, and

Tampa will not let it get out of hand as they did against the Panthers. In Week 2, Ryan had just 158 PaYDs and two INTs. He’s learned a lot since then, but this could be a game he struggles and you don’t need that in the fantasy playoffs. The Bucs are allowing just 182.6 PaYDs (fourth) per game with 17 PaTDs (18th) and 19 INTs allowed on the season.

The matchups I don’t like this week for RBs:

Jamal Lewis against the Eagles. Lewis had seven RuYDs last week. Yes, seven. He was facing a tough Titans defense, and this week he has another defense that will keep him limited. The Eagles are coming off a win over the Giants and are allowing just 93.1 RuYDs (eighth) per game with six RuTDs given up (second).

Willie Parker against the Ravens. Parker hasn’t scored since Week 9, and over the past three weeks he is averaging just 49.7 RuYDs with no scores. This game will be a hard-fought defensive battle. Parker missed the first meeting due to injury and faces a Ravens team that allows just 77 RuYDs (third) with only three RuTDs allowed (first).

Willis McGahee against the Steelers. It’s going to be tough to run the ball for both sides. McGahee may have lost his starting job as he now has to share carries with Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain. The Steelers will play tough run defense as they give up just 73 RuYDs (first) per game with eight RuTDs allowed (fourth).

Week 15: Good Luck to everyone in Week 15! Win or go home, that’s all there is to it.

Cheers

!