Review of last week:
Here is a list of last week’s plays. The good was Jimmy Smith with great numbers 5/113/1; Kerry Colbert 7/71/0; Marcus Robinson 3/33/1; Kerry Collins 350/2; Kurt Warner 270/1. Those all made great sleeper plays. The duds were Ronald Curry, Drew Bennett, and Jake Delhomme who all put next to 0 on the board. 62% isn’t too bad.
I have 6 big sleeper plays this week (I feel like its gambling with my five star picks). Anyways each of these guys has a quality matchup and a productive week should be in the cards.
Kurt Warner versus the Vikings. Warner has been solid all year long and there is no reason to think another solid day isn’t in the realm. Not only are the Vikings 30th in pass defense allowing over 260 yards a game opposing teams are also throwing the ball 39.2 times each week against them. That ranks 30th as well. Obviously that many attempts leads to yards being piled up but teams have no choice but to throw the ball as the Vikings offense has been so prolific teams need to throw to stay in the game. I would expect the Giants will continue this trend against Minnesota and Warner being as accurate as any passer in the game next to Tom Brady should be able to throw for around 300 yards and probably a pair of touchdowns to keep pace with the Vikings at home where they are as good as it gets. Expect Armani Toomer (he should be ok) Ike Hillard and Jeremy Shockey to be a solid play this week.
Jonnie Morton versus the Colts. 8 rushing touchdowns are all I need to know to suggest a huge day for Trent Green and the entire receiver corp of the Chiefs. I am a huge believer in what happens one week will be reversed the following week. In the NFL, teams do a great job of adjusting week in and week out. Therefore Tony Dungy will undoubtedly put 8 men in the box to stop the run (well contain it) and have Green beat him. You know he won’t stand for debacle on the ground. Also, the Chiefs will be aware of this and will come out airing the ball. Green gets paid millions to throw touchdowns and this week belongs to him. He is obviously a must start but besides Gonzalez I really like Morton to come up huge against the last ranked passing defense in the league in what should be a shoot out. The Colts have given up almost 300 passing yards and 11 touchdowns this year. If you have Eddie Kennison or need to pick him up due to bye weeks feel confident in playing him as he should have a good day as well. If the Chiefs don’t produce scores through the air this week will they ever?
Quality Sleeper Plays:
Brandon Lloyd versus the Bears. The 49ers had a bye last week but in the previous two starts for Lloyd against the Cardinals and Jets he had a total of 11 receptions for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns. Pretty good numbers. Lloyd being the number 1 receiver on the niner’s might be a potential giant sleeper the rest of the way. Lloyd has a decent matchup on Sunday Night football as the Bears are ranked in the middle of the pack for passing defense.
Keyshawn Johnson versus the Lions. Keyshawn has been solid this whole year and should continue his productive play this week. He will never have the huge game with 150 yards and 2 touchdowns but Johnson especially with Terry Glenn injured will be the main focal point for Vinny and will have another quality fantasy day. Also, the Lions are 29th in passing defense.
Armani Toomer versus the Vikings. Toomer is probably a regular starter in some lineups but this week he is a must start as the Giants will need to score points frequently to keep pace with the Vikings. Tom Coughlin didn’t even mention Toomer’s injury in his press conference which can be a good or bad thing. Toomer has notoriously been a receiver who will have 3 or 4 sub-par games in a row with around 50 yards and no scores. Then he busts out for 125 and a touchdown ala Reggie Wayne. By the way I think Wayne is a fantasy dud who is not worth starting unless you want to have 13 games with 25 yards and then have 3 huge games during the year. Had to get that off my chest. Anyways expect Toomer to have one of those great games in the Metrodome with a bulk of his yards on a few deep routes. Of course make sure he practices on Friday and is set to go otherwise Ike Hillard should rise up.
Brad Hoover versus the Seahawks. Carolina is down to Hoover as their main back since Stephen Davis will miss at least this week’s game and probably more. Carolina is a team that needs to establish the run especially with their offensive injuries in the skill positions. John Fox will pound the ball against the Seahawks who have their own defensive injuries. Seattle has been pretty good overall on rushing defense however Carolina and Hoover who gained 99 yards last week should be able to put up a few numbers and a score is definitely likely for Hoover.
Best of luck as always.