Friday - Feb 15, 2019

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Why Houston should NOT draft Reggie.

Reggie Bush is a stud and there is a good possibility that he will have a great career in the NFL. There is no arguing that fact but for Houston to use the #1 pick on him could be a massive mistake.

 

Being fantasy football geeks, especially us writers, we live in a world of numbers, stats, trends, and projections. We have to be objective and look at the whole picture so we can better serve our readers. So no matter how much I like Reggie Bush or think that he could be the next big thing, I have to put all that aside and really take a look at whether or not Houston is doing the right thing. And after looking at the information available to me, I think that #1 pick could be better spent.

 

First of all, we all know that the first round of the draft is almost strictly talent based. Teams almost always take the best player available regardless of position, which is why Houston will make Reggie top dog.  But in the teams current state is that what they need? You mean to tell me that ONE extremely talented player is going to change the future of this franchise? Come on, wake up. Houston needs more then a RB. Hell I am not sure that they even need a RB.

 

Houston’s got a good 3rd year RB in Domanick Davis. The guy has missed some time due to injury but considering the fact that he is targeted week in and week out as the team’s only offensive threat, what can you expect. D.D. has two seasons with over grand on the ground and though he played only 11 games this year he still almost got there with 976 yards. He has got decent hands as well, logging 68 receptions for 588 yards just last year. I know Reggie is a stud but come on, your going to draft into the one of the only positions on your team that is currently filled by a quality player? That makes no sense.

 

Put yourself in Houston’s position. Don’t you think that you may be better served to draft a QB? You can’t tell me that David Carr is the answer. In four years the guy is averaging 12 TDs and 13 INTs a year. Come on, the guy was sacked 68 times this year. At this rate, David Carr is lucky to be able to remember his own name. Ok, Ok, you want to give him another season to grow up, to gel, Fine. How you looking at WR?

 

Your top WR, Andre Johnson, had nearly 700 yards and 2 TDs. The next best receiver didn’t even get to the 500 yard mark. Sure Gaffney and Bradford are young burners so I can see you wanting to give them some more time. Plus some of it falls on the shoulders of your quarterback. Fine, let’s talk about the offensive line that is going to protect that #1 draft pick of yours, the one that has your QB coughing up dirt clods.

 

Now there are already some questions about Reggie’s durability especially once he hits the NFL ranks. How long will be last behind that offensive line? The offensive line that keeps your current running back in the doctors office and your QB face down in the grass. Come on, get real.

 

The list of other, more immediate, needs could go on and on. I think you get my point but if you think that I am hinging my argument on just team needs your sadly mistaken cupcake. You’re forgetting something important, I am a numbers guy.

 

Since the first NFL draft in 1936, running backs have gone number one 23 times. Out of those 23 drafted number one, 3 decided to not play in the NFL (Jay Berwanger in ‘36, Corbett Davis in ‘38, and Ernie Davis in ‘62) so that leaves 20 running backs drafted number one that played in the NFL. You follow me so far? Good.

 

Now, out of those 20 running backs how many made it to a championship games in their first year? Two, 1960’s #1 Pick, Billy Cannon, 1966’s #1, Jim Grabowski.

 

How many have won championships with the team that drafted them? Four, add 1951’s #1 pick, Kyle Rote, and ’57 Drafts #1 pick, the legendary Paul Hornung, to the previous mentioned Cannon and Grabowski.

 

What about #1 draft picks that have won a championship game at all? Well then, add George Rogers, 1981’s #1 draft pick to New Orleans, to the list. He won a Super Bowl title with the ’87 Redskins and then quickly retired. Now unless I missed something, that makes five.

 

Five of the twenty running backs that played and were drafted #1 into the NFL won a Championship or Super Bowl game in their entire careers. And the last one to do it was in 1987, almost twenty years ago. Everyone’s favorite murderer O.J. Simpson, Earl “The Tyler Rose” Campbell, and Bo “The Boar” Jackson all got blanked. So historically running backs drafted number one may have faired well statistically but when it comes down to winning the brass ring, they don’t do so hot. Especially if you look at the number of Championship or Super Bowl games won by #1 draft pick quarterbacks.

 

You don’t even have to go all the way back to 1936, when the draft started, to find five #1 pick quarterbacks that won Championships or even Super Bowl games. Look at this list starting from 1970.

 

Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, John Elway, Troy Aikman, and Drew Bledsoe, were all drafted since 1970 and all have won Super Bowls, granted Bledsoe was riding pine the year they won it. But if you look at the quality of quarterbacks that have been drafted since 1998 you can expect to see the number of #1 draft pick quarterbacks since 1970 who have won Championships and/or Super Bowls to go up. The likes of Payton and Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and Michael Vick are still chucking the rock for teams that could easily turn the corner.

 

In my opinion, drafting Reggie Bush with the number one pick, into the only position that you already have filled with a very solid player, is only ignoring all the other holes that would require filling before you could even dream of contending. Not only that but if you look at the history of #1 draft pick running backs, from a team stand point, and the statistical probability of them getting you at a Championship game let alone a Super Bowl, how can you justify the fatty contract you know Reggie is going to get.

 

Sure you don’t want to be the team that passed on Reggie Bush if, but more then likely when, he becomes a stud in the NFL. But do you really want to be the team that used their number one pick on a potential stud and STILL couldn’t get it done?

 

Teams with a one player/ one dimensional offense usually never get to the top. This years Carolina is a perfect example, the offense is and was all about Smith. Stop him and game over. Buffalo with O.J. and the Oilers with Earl Campbell are other examples.

Houston needs to do one of two things if they are serious about building this franchise. They either use the buzz and hype of Reggie Bush to trade down for more picks (New Orleans gave up everything for Ricky Williams, you mean to tell me there isn’t a team out there that is willing to cough it up big time for Reggie?) or better yet go with a stud QB that will help even out your offensive attack and give you a better statistical chance to advance to a Championship game or even the Super Bowl. With all that talent it would be hard to turn the other check but drafting Reggie Bush isn’t the answer, not for Houston, not if their looking to build a franchise and not just sell tickets.

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